Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 @N. OF PIKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Useless at this range but the 09Z SREFs are markedly west at 81 vs the 03Z SREFs at 87. From 81-87 though they look like they are headed wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hes drinking his spiked coffee with like 8 monitors, pulling up maps like its nothing. Just weenie grinding away. hes like a pro online poker player playing 12 tables. Expand Lol actually on my phone on my deck, it's 3 degrees the snow is sparkling like Diamonds in the Sun. I already had looked at U wind. Also PWAT , 250 wind. Probabilities of .5 are 50% all the way to you. You qpf queens need to start learning ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It seems like some posters here are gonna be upset with a nice 6-10” snowfall.. which is what most of NE is looking at. What more couid you want or did they expect from this? Expand This was "gone" according to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This was "gone" according to you. Expand C'mon that was 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:48 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lol actually on my phone on my deck, it's 3 degrees the snow is sparkling like Diamonds in the Sun. I already had looked at U wind. Also PWAT , 250 wind. Probabilities of .5 are 50% all the way to you. You qpf queens need to start learning ratios. Expand One day a time will come when qpf maps aren’t the go to until day of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:51 PM, Ginx snewx said: C'mon that was 2 days ago. Expand All the more curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 6:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Remember what I said about N stream energy this season relative to modeled intensity before coming ashore. Expand I don't think this is exclusive to this year either. Southern streams come with a lot of baggage (convection) that is havoc on the models (convective parameterization since they can't directly model). The northern stream doesn't come with that convective baggage, and often may not even have a significant surface reflection (shallower). BUT the upper levels (PV anomalies and the like) can be very strong and have significant influence once they make it into the mid latitudes. We try and mitigate this problem with satellite radiances, but they are just estimations after all. It is a significant contribution to why we can see models change solutions so much around day 3/4, because that's about the typical time it takes a shortwave to reach the West Coast and traverse the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Was the issue w 6z GEFS the N.Stream or the lead vort pushing barcolinic zone offshore. On phone thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:59 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Was the issue w 6z GEFS the N.Stream or the lead vort pushing barcolinic zone offshore. On phone thanks! Expand What issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:59 PM, OceanStWx said: I don't think this is exclusive to this year either. Southern streams come with a lot of baggage (convection) that is havoc on the models (convective parameterization since they can't directly model). The northern stream doesn't come with that convective baggage, and often may not even have a significant surface reflection (shallower). BUT the upper levels (PV anomalies and the like) can be very strong and have significant influence once they make it into the mid latitudes. We try and mitigate this problem with satellite radiances, but they are just estimations after all. It is a significant contribution to why we can see models change solutions so much around day 3/4, because that's about the typical time it takes a shortwave to reach the West Coast and traverse the US. Expand Yes, the notion that this is "slipping away" is a mirage imo....until we see this sampled. If it still looks that way in 24 hours, sound the eulogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:03 PM, Ginx snewx said: What issue Expand The reason they shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, the notion that this is "slipping away" is a mirage imo....until we see this sampled. If it still looks that way in 24 hours, sound the eulogy. Expand Euro, Gem, UK, Navgem are all moderate or greater impacts. Gfs fringes...why so negative? Because the Gefs went E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:06 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Euro, Gem, UK, Navgem are all moderate or greater impacts. Gfs fringes...why so negative? Expand How is that negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:59 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Was the issue w 6z GEFS the N.Stream or the lead vort pushing barcolinic zone offshore. On phone thanks! Expand Why are you using the Gfs/ Gefs for an east coast winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:43 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m confused by some of the negative posts. Decent chance for many to get a moderate event. Slight chance of a big event. Could it go OTS? Sure, but not a terrible look Expand Somebody stole their biblical scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: How is that negative? Expand I saw your sound the eulogy post if the models looks the same once the SW is sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, the notion that this is "slipping away" is a mirage imo....until we see this sampled. If it still looks that way in 24 hours, sound the eulogy. Expand There is definitely no reason to call this one DOA until you shake off the hangover Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Red flag when the normally progressive Navgem is amped up? Latest BOX discussion: It is interesting to note that even if storm tracks well offshore, potent upstream trough may lead to some sort of inverted trough extending well back to the west, so some snow is likely across southern New England even with an eastern solution. Complex upper air pattern with amplifying trough moving into the Great Lakes with separate lead shortwave lifting NE from the Gulf Coast which induces significant cyclogenesis offshore. The timing and amplitude of upstream shortwave energy moving into the southeast Continental U.S. And Great Lakes and how these shortwaves interact will determine the track and how close this storm gets to new eng. Given that the responsible shortwave energy is still over the northern Pacific and north of the Arctic Circle it will likely take until Mon night or Tue before energy is better sampled by upper air network, so further changes are likely in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The reason they shifted east. Expand Am I missing something? 6z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:10 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I saw your sound the eulogy post if the models looks the same once the SW is sampled. Expand I was quoting others. But I do think the models dropping 8" of snow over 2 days with a low track 300 miles east are suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:12 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: Red flag when the normally progressive Navgem is amped up? Latest BOX discussion: It is interesting to note that even if storm tracks well offshore, potent upstream trough may lead to some sort of inverted trough extending well back to the west, so some snow is likely across southern New England even with an eastern solution. Complex upper air pattern with amplifying trough moving into the Great Lakes with separate lead shortwave lifting NE from the Gulf Coast which induces significant cyclogenesis offshore. The timing and amplitude of upstream shortwave energy moving into the southeast Continental U.S. And Great Lakes and how these shortwaves interact will determine the track and how close this storm gets to new eng. Given that the responsible shortwave energy is still over the northern Pacific and north of the Arctic Circle it will likely take until Mon night or Tue before energy is better sampled by upper air network, so further changes are likely in the guidance. Expand I remember somebody making fun of somebody when rhey suggested they would check back on Tuesday once everything is sampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:12 PM, Ginx snewx said: Am I missing something? 6z vs 0z Expand Just relaying his message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was quoting others. But I do think the models dropping 8" of snow over 2 days with a low track 300 miles east are suspect. Expand 7 of those inches are in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:14 PM, Ginx snewx said: 7 of those inches are in 6 hours Expand Not on last night's EURO run...at least where I am. 7" over 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Its like pulling teeth sometimes The 0z was east, the 6z was the same (also east) People pointed out the N stream was not digging on 0z, ill just believe the N stream sucked on 6z. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Its like pulling teeth sometimes The 0z was east, the 6z was the same (also east) People pointed out the N stream was not digging on 0z, ill just believe the N stream sucked on 6z. Cool Expand The on your phone excuse is weak, you have been around long enough go look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 2:06 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Euro, Gem, UK, Navgem are all moderate or greater impacts. Gfs fringes...why so negative? Because the Gefs went E? Expand GEFS precip drastically increased across all of NE from 0Z, like last night's UKmet B.S. yea it didn't have a 2 inch contour but rather spread it out. The problem here is some are looking for a superstorm or a jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Who was against waiting until the SW is sampled to judge this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 A long 3 -4 days this will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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