Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[CoastalWx]

The srn stream vort seems to be driving the bus here. Probably some members slinging the storn NNW, PF.

[NorEastermass128]

I like the expansive precip shield on the GFS. Sort of reminds me of Nemo in 2013. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems almost like we don’t need a close in track and we’d still get expensive snows well west into NY state 

[TheCloser24]

NWS UPTON: 

Models have been wavering on signal for a potential significant
coastal storm Wed-Thu, but run to run and model to model spread
is to be expected this far out in dealing with a complicated
northern and PAC energy stream. Due to the complexity of
interaction of PAC/northern stream energies in the sensitivity
region (with potential approaching wave packet) Along The
BC/AK coast predictability is too low to say whether the
favored major coastal storm scenarios of the previous couple of
days or favored current offshore track is correct. Both
scenarios are in play at this 5 to 6 day out juncture. With a
strong signal for northern stream jet amplification down into
the SE US, chance pops are warranted at this point.

[JC-CT]

So glad I purposefully tuned this one out a couple days ago until it got closer. Way too easy to get attached to day 7 solutions, positive or negative, when they have virtually zero chance of verifying.

I am disappointed that I missed a scooter frosty melt though. And I see tip is back, that's good.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

eps improved, i think much better at h5 with a neggy tilted trough, and 6z gfs is dead nuts with 0z euro. gefs keeps improving, much sharper with the trough. Still need a 100-200 mile correction at the surface, though, but thats doable. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Pretty nuts on mid level panels the eye structure this exhibits. 

[powderfreak]

  On 12/30/2017 at 12:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

eps improved, i think much better at h5 with a neggy tilted trough, and 6z gfs is dead nuts with 0z euro. gefs keeps improving, much sharper with the trough. Still need a 100-200 mile correction at the surface, though, but thats doable. 

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6z GEFS...

[powderfreak]

  On 12/30/2017 at 11:33 AM, CoastalWx said:

The srn stream vort seems to be driving the bus here. Probably some members slinging the storn NNW, PF.

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That makes sense.  You guys are looking good and have quite the wiggle room westward.  Still need it to turn the corner quick enough and sharp enough.

[Baroclinic Zone]

This next threat has legs.  Just getting caught up on overnight models.  The 06z GEFS has a 24hr precip contour >0.75" over the Cape.   

[Hoth]

  On 12/30/2017 at 11:57 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems almost like we don’t need a close in track and we’d still get expensive snows well west into NY state 

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Expensive because you're buying back in?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/30/2017 at 12:39 PM, Hoth said:

Expensive because you're buying back in?

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It’s worked for all the big ones. Hope it does the trick this time 

[Baroclinic Zone]

That Euro run was nuts.  ~950mb low when it hits our latitude offshore.  With a pressure that low, we would see a pretty expansive precip shield thrown back west.  This will be fun to watch play out over  the long weekend.

[Hoth]

  On 12/30/2017 at 12:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s worked for all the big ones. Hope it does the trick this time 

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The KURO being pessimistic is one of the most important things in my opinion. Fingers crossed.

[Hoth]

  On 12/30/2017 at 12:42 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

That Euro run was nuts.  ~950mb low when it hits our latitude offshore.  With a pressure that low, we would see a pretty expansive precip shield thrown back west.  This will be fun to watch play out over  the long weekend.

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Wow, had not looked at the run yet. What a powder keg at H5. 

[dryslot]

That was an impressive Euro run when it rolled out last night, Lets keep this trending west, Should be fun watching this one evolve over the next few days,

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/30/2017 at 12:31 PM, powderfreak said:

That makes sense.  You guys are looking good and have quite the wiggle room westward.  Still need it to turn the corner quick enough and sharp enough.

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Maybe, but these also have been congrats PF too. I have a feeling this will come west significantly.

[JBinStoughton]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

Maybe, but these also have been congrats PF too. I have a feeling this will come west significantly.

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How west? 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:09 PM, JBinStoughton said:

How west? 

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If I knew, I would be rich.

[JBinStoughton]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

If I knew, I would be rich.

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I just mean it would be ridiculous if we rain after a week of frigid cold to be follwed up immediately by more frigid cold.  Don’t do it. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

If I knew, I would be rich.

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LOL.  One saving grace right now is this is so far east that I feel there is only so far west it can go before it gets swept up by the ULL swinging through.  Perhaps as far as what we saw on Thursdays runs.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

If I knew, I would be rich.

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You are 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

You are 

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[CoastalWx]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:14 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

LOL.  One saving grace right now is this is so far east that I feel there is only so far west it can go before it gets swept up by the ULL swinging through.  Perhaps as far as what we saw on Thursdays runs.

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Yeah true. But, Srn vorts traversing the GOM...look out. Seen it before. Anyways I was not trying to imply rain...just saying western folks probably should be watching very close.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true. But, Srn vorts traversing the GOM...look out. Seen it before. Anyways I was not trying to imply rain...just saying western folks probably should be watching very close.

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MPM will be telling us there is a dearth of QPF.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:19 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

MPM will be telling us there is a dearth of QPF.

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LOL, anyways we watch. That euro intensity was eye opening. That literally was a James dream, except for no stall. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:13 PM, JBinStoughton said:

I just mean it would be ridiculous if we rain after a week of frigid cold to be follwed up immediately by more frigid cold.  Don’t do it. 

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Embrace the 1980s.

[ROOSTA]

I think many of us (only speaking for self) take this site for granted. Collectively it's a rare occurrence that a threat doesn't verify from pay-dirt to whiffs. The riches  are found in every post. Back to my favorite storm threat. A huge Ocean tempest that backs-in. A surprise to many but the threat continues. Admittedly fun to watch unfold from afar. 

[Hoth]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

LOL, anyways we watch. That euro intensity was eye opening. That literally was a James dream, except for no stall. 

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Stall or no, you'd have to think it would be a big QPF producer given its origin.

[Modfan]

  On 12/30/2017 at 1:25 PM, ROOSTA said:

I think many of us (only speaking for self) take this site for granted. Collectively it's a rare occurrence that a threat doesn't verify from pay-dirt to whiffs. The riches  are found in every post. Back to my favorite storm threat. A huge Ocean tempest that backs-in. A surprise to many but the threat continues. Admittedly fun to watch unfold from afar. 

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ROOSTA- I saw something that Tampa area could receive snow late this week; it has cooled off down here considerably the last few days