40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:03 PM, leo2000 said: I don't think we are due for a ratter as we are in a new norm now. The new norm being supposedly more bigger snowstorms. Expand Possible, but until further notice, we're due for regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 10:41 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: It's all been forgettable this month. Expand Def. forgettable in terms of overall snowfall, but I'll never forget 6.5" of snow centered on Christmas morning. Unremarkable month where you are, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:03 PM, leo2000 said: I don't think we are due for a ratter as we are in a new norm now. The new norm being supposedly more bigger snowstorms. Expand LOL. Keep telling yourself that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:16 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL. Keep telling yourself that. Expand Big storms are going to be more common moving forward imo...but that doesn't have to mean more annual snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Man, that signal is remarkably consistent at such an extended lead...I think that is my 12/24-1/8 big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:16 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL. Keep telling yourself that. Expand Why not?. Bad winters can go on for decades for example 1960's-1970 some winters were bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:31 PM, leo2000 said: Why not?. Bad winters can go on for decades for example 1960's-1970 some winters were bad. Expand Bad winters don’t have big storms. Not every winter will have one. We are due for regression. Enjoy regression....it’s the only regression you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Bad winters don’t have big storms. Not every winter will have one. We are due for regression. Enjoy regression....it’s the only regression you got. Expand Hehe the snow can only hold off for so long. Like last winter then all of a sudden boom came February with a ton of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Bad winters don’t have big storms. Not every winter will have one. We are due for regression. Enjoy regression....it’s the only regression you got. Expand You don't agree that a warmer climate will lead to larger precipitation events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:36 PM, leo2000 said: Hehe the snow can only hold off for so long. Like last winter then all of a sudden boom came February with a ton of snow. Expand Every winter above average from here on out, just cold and snow all the Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You don't agree that a warmer climate will lead to larger precipitation events? Expand His logic is that we won’t get a ratter because a warmer climate means bigger storms. That’s completely false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 A warmer climate could dictate larger precipitation events, but the hemispheric signals that foreshadow a ratter do not care if the climate is warming or cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:50 PM, CoastalWx said: A warmer climate could dictate larger precipitation events, but the hemispheric signals that foreshadow a ratter do not care if the climate is warming or cooling. Expand A higher frequency rate of larger precipitation events and bad winters are not mutually exclusive. And to claim larger snow events have not been the rule is every bit as delusional as denying global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: A higher frequency rate of larger precipitation events and bad winters are not mutually exclusive. And to claim larger snow events have not been the rule us every bit as delusional as denying global warming. Expand I think you are missing the point. Just because we will have a larger precipitation event once in a while does not mean Winters will feature more and more snow. The hemispheric patterns that dictate ratters are completely independent of the climate warming or cooling or whatever. You can have incredible Winters in a warmer world you can have complete duds in a warmer world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:00 AM, CoastalWx said: I think you are missing the point. Just because we will have a larger precipitation event once in a while does not mean Winters will feature more and more snow. The hemispheric patterns that dictate ratters are completely independent of the climate warming or cooling or whatever. You can have incredible Winters in a warmer world you can have complete duds in a warmer world. Expand Pretty sure I already stated that a higher frequency rate of larger events doesn't have to mean higher annual snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty sure I already stated that a higher frequency rate of larger events doesn't have to mean higher annual snowfall. Expand It may help reduce the number of ratters though.... if one storm can get you half your climo snowfall, it’s hard to rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:06 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It may help reduce the number of ratters though.... if one storm can get you half your climo snowfall, it’s hard to rat. Expand It could....but we'll always have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:06 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It may help reduce the number of ratters though.... if one storm can get you half your climo snowfall, it’s hard to rat. Expand Eventually you warm and chop away at the beginning andb end months of winter. It’s not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty sure I already stated that a higher frequency rate of larger events doesn't have to mean higher annual snowfall. Expand My bad. I took it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:16 AM, CoastalWx said: My bad. I took it differently. Expand My theory is that we'll see more large events at the expense of smaller deals as the climate warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:15 AM, CoastalWx said: Eventually you warm and chop away at the beginning andb end months of winter. It’s not good. Expand Yes, but given the larger events to counteract that, the point of diminishing returns is probably beyond our lifespan...JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: A higher frequency rate of larger precipitation events and bad winters are not mutually exclusive. And to claim larger snow events have not been the rule is every bit as delusional as denying global warming. Expand I think it depends where you live on your perspective. However we had a lot of huge storms in the past during certain streaks, like 1960s/70s. I certainly agree with the higher precip in a warming climate, because it makes sense. But I'm not sold it means increased frequency of huge events. Maybe the SWFE are a bit juicier...same with the overrunning or clippers. But maybe it increases precip in all events on a micro-scale, including precip bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:06 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It may help reduce the number of ratters though.... if one storm can get you half your climo snowfall, it’s hard to rat. Expand That's always been why I've thought you can't call a Winter a ratter until very late in SNE if judging by snowfall totals. Anyone averaging under 60" can get out of ratter territory even with a 3-foot bomb in March or even April. It's not likely, but it could happen. Even lower snowfall averages can get out of a ratter with 2 solid snowstorms that aren't even top 10 material. Up in NNE and places with averages say over 80-90", and moreso in the 110"+ averages, you'll know if the winter is in serious trouble a lot earlier. One or two storms can't save some seasons even by February... unless it's like 2007 and you get bombs away from Valentines Day to Tax Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:27 AM, powderfreak said: I think it depends where you live on your perspective. However we had a lot of huge storms in the past during certain streaks, like 1960s/70s. I certainly agree with the higher precip in a warming climate, because it makes sense. But I'm not sold it means increased frequency of huge events. Maybe the SWFE are a bit juicier...same with the overrunning or clippers. But maybe it increases precip in all events on a micro-scale, including precip bombs. Expand Also have to factor in greatest rate of warming being at the poles...could potentially foster an enviornment more conducive to major cyclogenesis because of increased incidence of blocking and/or less capacity for the atmosphere to engineer an anonamously steep gradient in the geopotential medium (sheer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/27/2017 at 11:50 PM, CoastalWx said: A warmer climate could dictate larger precipitation events, but the hemispheric signals that foreshadow a ratter do not care if the climate is warming or cooling. Expand My point is the last 10 years at least none of those winters have been a ratter. The last time I would call any winter a ratter was 1996. As it was very dry and very cold too. However, there still was at least one big snowstorm. The hemispheric signals as you mention don't look too bad at all for this winter. At least we have coastal storms developing. Even though they are missing us. Doesn't mean they all will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:36 AM, leo2000 said: My point is the last 10 years at least none of those winters have been a ratter. The last time I would call any winter a ratter was 1996. As it was very dry and very cold too. However, there still was at least one big snowstorm. The hemispheric signals as you mention don't look too bad at all for this winter. At least we have coastal storms developing. Even though they are missing us. Doesn't mean they all will. Expand 11 12 , climate . Lots of lemming posts in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:47 AM, Ginx snewx said: 11 12 , climate . Lots of lemming posts in here. Expand Yeah not sure if he just stared at the Men in Black pen and erased all the multiple ratters we have had since 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 12:34 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Also have to factor in greatest rate of warming being at the poles...could potentially foster an enviornment more conducive to major cyclogenesis because of increased incidence of blocking and/or less capacity for the atmosphere to engineer an anonamously steep gradient in the geopotential medium (sheer). Expand There is likely a sweet spot where a warming climate can help perhaps with increased snowfall and a temporary spike in 30 yr averages. We could have had it, or maybe it has yet to occur. Our climate is such that we can afford some wiggle room, but eventually we'll reach the tipping point. I agree...I hope to be 6' under when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 1:00 AM, CoastalWx said: There is likely a sweet spot where a warming climate can help perhaps with increased snowfall and a temporary spike in 30 yr averages. We could have had it, or maybe it has yet to occur. Our climate is such that we can afford some wiggle room, but eventually we'll reach the tipping point. I agree...I hope to be 6' under when that happens. Expand 110% in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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