RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Action Jackson on the op run. Oh how we wish it comes close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Action Jackson on the op run. Oh how we wish it comes close to verifying. Expand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:40 PM, Whineminster said: Folks in here wait all year for exciting weather, then when there's a chance we might get some they get wet feet. I don't get it. Expand Homeowner, 2 kids, etc. 2008 was not really enjoyable. Breathtakingly beautiful, very neat weather-wise, but I will pass. Hope you enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Bombs away in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:04 PM, weathafella said: Yes. And to the mid level argument-this is why ice happens. As someone once said, we don’t live at H5. Expand But if the high moves northeast, we warm and rain. Once we mix out, we warm and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:48 PM, WxBlue said: Looked up 1998 ice storm. WOW is all I have to say. Expand Anyone wanting a repeat of that is insane, certifiably. Lived through it in Maine and it was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:48 PM, WxBlue said: Looked up 1998 ice storm. WOW is all I have to say. Expand 1-2.5" ice accretion here is all anyone should need to know, My company's delivery trucks antenna looked like the handle on a baseball bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:55 PM, dryslot said: 1-2.5" ice accretion here is all anyone should need to know. Expand And massive infastructure damage, especially in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:58 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: And massive infastructure damage, especially in Quebec. Expand The pics of those collapsed metal towers are jaw dropping, And this was a twig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Pretty epic gradient on the CMC through the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:59 PM, dryslot said: The pics of those collapsed metal towers are jaw dropping. Expand Quebec Hydro really took it on the Chin. Thankfully there was international assistance from the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:55 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: Anyone wanting a repeat of that is insane, certifiably. Lived through it in Maine and it was awful. Expand It's up there with people wanting high risk tornado outbreak or Category 4/5 hurricane to hit their area. Went through 4/16/11 high risk in NC and I swore off cheering on backyard high risk days for rest of my life. That was a terrifying experience. My parents also went through 0.75-1" ice event and that was bad enough... 1998 level is one big nope. On 12/20/2017 at 4:55 PM, dryslot said: 1-2.5" ice accretion here is all anyone should need to know. Expand F' that. Ice storms are pretty until you lose power/heat and trees/lines start snapping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:52 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: I put it in the wrong place, sue me. Expand Well you did jump on him when you're the one who used the wrong symbol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:06 PM, dendrite said: What mid levels? The H5 vortmax tracks over SNE now. We're close to popping a 2ndry near Kevin's fanny. Expand In the latest runs, yes. You feel that is because the EPO blocking forced it east? Honest question...I would like to hear from Brian, Will, Scott and Ryan on this. If all you guys can honestly say the EPO block is directly responsible for forcing the upper system to the east, then I am wrong and will learn from the responses. I feel the low levels can trend colder because the of the high, but the mid levels trending east is becuase of nuances with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: In the latest runs, yes. You feel that is because the EPO blocking forced it east? Honest question...I would like to hear from Brian, Will, Scott and Ryan on this. If all you guys can honestly say the EPO block is directly responsible for forcing the upper system to the east, then I am wrong and will learn from the responses. I feel the low levels can trend colder because the cold, but the mid levels trending east is becuase of nuances with the shoetwave. Expand My take on it is that all things being equal the epo would tend to cause confluence in the flow (very cold north with a se ridge) thus less chance of a lakes cutter and more opportunity for sheared system with light to moderate snow and ice. It of course can't stop a cutter in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Once in a while you just have to let a Cape Codder or a Staten Islander ‘win’ regardless if they won for the wrong reasons. Just chalk it up to a NAM like win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:03 PM, dendrite said: Well you did jump on him when you're the one who used the wrong symbol. Expand Does it all the time. We laugh with no apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:55 PM, dryslot said: 1-2.5" ice accretion here is all anyone should need to know, My company's delivery trucks antenna looked like the handle on a baseball bat. Expand At Sugarloaf, we had 6" of sleet mixed with 1" of freezing rain. I had to hack my way into my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Does it all the time. We laugh with no apologies Expand Read the foliage forum and get back to me. You be been on my back from day one, creepy actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:08 PM, OSUmetstud said: My take on it is that all things being equal the epo would tend to cause confluence in the flow (very cold north with a se ridge) thus less chance of a lakes cutter and more opportunity for sheared system with light to moderate snow and ice. It of course can't stop a cutter in and of itself. Expand That mid-level confluence helps to strengthen the sfc high. So although Ray is correct that the sfc high isn't steering the ship, that epo ridging is influencing the high. It all works together and the -EPO definitely helps. It worked for Ant this time, but you can't just always see a -EPO and assume a cutter is going to verify cold and wintry for the EC either. There's not a lot of black and white in meteorology. If there was, forecasting would be easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:08 PM, OSUmetstud said: My take on it is that all things being equal the epo would tend to cause confluence in the flow (very cold north with a se ridge) thus less chance of a lakes cutter and more opportunity for sheared system with light to moderate snow and ice. It of course can't stop a cutter in and of itself. Expand Agreed. I mentioned shearing east a plauability, but neglected the fact that that is partially attributable to the EPO. That is my bad. But I don't think that the way some articulated it was accurate. The EPO does not simply block it from cutting...I think both parties could have communicated better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:15 PM, dendrite said: That mid-level confluence helps to strengthen the sfc high. So although Ray is correct that the sfc high isn't steering the ship, that epo ridging is influencing the high. It all works together and the -EPO definitely helps. It worked for Ant this time, but you can't just always see a -EPO and assume a cutter is going to verify cold and wintry for the EC either. There's not a lot of black and white in meteorology. If there was, forecasting would be easy. Expand Yes, agreed. Its easy to forget this and apply information too rigidly from time to time. It is all connected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:08 PM, OSUmetstud said: My take on it is that all things being equal the epo would tend to cause confluence in the flow (very cold north with a se ridge) thus less chance of a lakes cutter and more opportunity for sheared system with light to moderate snow and ice. It of course can't stop a cutter in and of itself. Expand Yes, to me the key has been all the modeling started with extension of the TPV in the SW undercutting the EPO pinching it off and developing more meridian flow. A known bias during highly anomalous EPO regimes is for modelling to place energy in the SW. Now as modeling adjusts to the reality of higher pressures and deeper cold in Canada their outputs consolidated the TPV and sheared out the SWave resulting in a less meriodinal flow. Does not preclude warmer upper air from penetrating but does increase CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Sorry for the crap in the thread, guys....but I'm glad something constructive came out of it in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The Christmas deal may be bogus because the Euro keys on that more northern disturbance phasing in. Typically the last 2-3 years when the GFS doesn’t see an interaction via a northern disturbance that the Euro does the Euro has generally ended up wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 These latest changes might save a white Christmas for me. It was looking bleak a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:59 PM, dryslot said: The pics of those collapsed metal towers are jaw dropping, And this was a twig. Expand TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The Christmas deal may be bogus because the Euro keys on that more northern disturbance phasing in. Typically the last 2-3 years when the GFS doesn’t see an interaction via a northern disturbance that the Euro does the Euro has generally ended up wrong Expand The 12z GGEM looked to do this as well, And looking at the 12z Ukie, It had a SLP in the GOM at 1000mb on the 25th but of course cant see in between panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.