Go Kart Mozart Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just back from football and dinner with the family. ROTFLMAO at the 18z gfs. A good lesson in why we shouldn't get worked up over anything depicted beyond five days. Have you heard about the computer that taught itself to play GO at a championship level in just one day? Do we have any self-correcting models that learn with each model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 6:26 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: PF, is in spin mode. It sucks. Pure and simple. Pulling for back to back Rainer into Quebec. Expand So here's the thing, it's not spin, it's just reality. In the East, you are trying to go on "runs", streaks. You know it will rain or thaw or warm up above freezing at some point. The game is to see how long a run you can put together without a thaw event. This has been a decent stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 12:13 AM, Minenfeld! said: First post here, been lurking for two years. Question: have we just been incredibly spoiled the past decade or so in terms of snowfall and cold? Expand Welcome and post more, nobody bites well cept Pickles. I have averaged 10 inches above my climo the last ten years. Spoiled, nah , have to remember those 11 12 15 16 years too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:49 AM, Ginx snewx said: Welcome and post more, nobody bites well cept Pickles. I have averaged 10 inches above my climo the last ten years. Spolied, nah , have to remember those 11 12 15 16 years too Expand I have PTSD from the 11-12 winter. I've always been into this stuff since I was a kid, but that winter got me really looking into weather in a more systematic way just so I could hopefully learn when the next God-awful anger-inducing winter was approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:52 AM, Minenfeld! said: I have PTSD from the 11-12 winter. I've always been into this stuff since I was a kid, but that winter got me really looking into weather in a more systematic way just so I could hopefully learn when the next God-awful anger-inducing winter was approaching. Expand Lol well we all have battle scars, some of us growing up on the south coast in SNE have tens of them but they all heal in a 2011 2015 minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The cutter and timing is about as ugly as it gets. But any chance it's a 35 F rain at the lower levels in NNE? As it presently looks, I believe it will wash away the 3" of cement around these parts. But there's still a good foot up north, so if it stays in the 30's maybe it adds substance to pack more than wash it away? Call me a , but I bet places north of say MHT have a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:32 AM, Go Kart Mozart said: Just back from football and dinner with the family. ROTFLMAO at the 18z gfs. A good lesson in why we shouldn't get worked up over anything depicted beyond five days. Have you heard about the computer that taught itself to play GO at a championship level in just one day? Do we have any self-correcting models that learn with each model run? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:52 AM, Minenfeld! said: I have PTSD from the 11-12 winter. I've always been into this stuff since I was a kid, but that winter got me really looking into weather in a more systematic way just so I could hopefully learn when the next God-awful anger-inducing winter was approaching. Expand Sometimes when we have a bad stretch coming up I think I was better off not knowing the outlook like when I was a kid and prayed for that blizzard to come out of nowhere. Course I'm still hoping for a blizzard to come out of nowhere this weekend no matter what the models look li me righht now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 0z GFS has the front through by the 24 Way different than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Santa is back on the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Lock it in!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:27 AM, WintersComing said: Lock it in!! . Expand Expect it to trend colder I think the front will clear the area and many areas will see snow by xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Gfs continues to trend colder with possible snow by Xmas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 and the euro op is a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 11:05 AM, CoastalWx said: and the euro op is a furnace. Expand add cmc to that camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 11:05 AM, CoastalWx said: and the euro op is a furnace. Expand Gefs says otherwise We know how the Euro has been lately. Expect that to trend colder also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 In fairness, the gfs is 6Z while euro and cmc is 0z. Gfs is probably a burp and d6 is never that good but if we’re picking Euro is superior at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The euro ensembles are definitely colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 11:28 AM, Snow88 said: Gefs says otherwise We know how the Euro has been lately. Expect that to trend colder also. Expand I’m still waiting for Judahs blocking, can you ask him how much longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:46 AM, Snow88 said: Expect it to trend colder I think the front will clear the area and many areas will see snow by xmas Expand Why , because the -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 11:37 AM, CoastalWx said: The euro ensembles are definitely colder than the op. Expand 13/14, gefs crushed the eps that season. I believe it was -epo +nao with marginal pna help... but the whole euro package was notoriously too warm in the mid to long range. On 12/18/2017 at 1:22 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Why , because the -EPO? Expand The epo cures weenie transmitted diseases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 EPO is not the be all end all. Devil is in the details. Too far west with the ridge and we risk cutterosity. Too far east and we freeze weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:33 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: EPO is not the be all end all. Devil is in the details. Too far west with the ridge and we risk cutterosity. Too far east and we freeze weenies. Expand Not the real story. Cutter risk is a function of the SE ridge amplitude which is best muted by NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Wow people are cliff jumping before me this time Anyway I always expect there will be thaws as PF said above. I doubt the entire winter is done for. I will be in NC for the next week so I will have to adjust to 70's on Christmas Day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:33 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: EPO is not the be all end all. Devil is in the details. Too far west with the ridge and we risk cutterosity. Too far east and we freeze weenies. Expand It’s a great ‘start’ but it doesn’t do it all. EPO is like a boiler to your hydrautic heating system. It can be functioning properly, but you can still get crappy distribution of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 7:27 PM, mahk_webstah said: I can certainly empathize with the panic, but this is a the kind of pattern that is hard for models isn't it? Seems to me there is still time for this to trend a little better for us, even if we still get a cutter. Maybe the sprawling high is stronger ahead of the system, maybe the low is less wound up and we get warm advection over cold air with a high anchored to the north. It is possible this won't be a disaster. Expand You're not wrong. We're forecast to be heading for a jet retraction and possibly an equatorward shift, both of which support greater than normal model uncertainty. That's not to say the models are definitely wrong (that's not how to interpret it), it's just that our confidence in the modeled pattern should be somewhat lower than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:51 PM, weathafella said: Not the real story. Cutter risk is a function of the SE ridge amplitude which is best muted by NAO. Expand Ur missing something, cuz we have had no blocking and the SE ridge wasn't an issue till now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Amazing difference between EPS and GEFS for sensible weather Monday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 11:37 AM, CoastalWx said: The euro ensembles are definitely colder than the op. Expand Op has me at 60 Monday, EPS 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 2:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ur missing something, cuz we have had no blocking and the SE ridge wasn't an issue till now Expand It’s been an issue all along. That’s why we’ve had thaws in between. We had a thread the needle deal last weekend but get a wound up system and it will try to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.