jm1220 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The hi res models seem to show a tighter cutoff rather than a shift SE. They’re not bad for everyone. The new 3k NAM has spots of 0.25” liquid on Long Island. For everyone else, it’s time to watch radar and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I already have flurries flying up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, snywx said: I already have flurries flying up here That might be a good sign, maybe a positive bust is upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The hi res models seem to show a tighter cutoff rather than a shift SE. They’re not bad for everyone. The new 3k NAM has spots of 0.25” liquid on Long Island. For everyone else, it’s time to watch radar and see what happens. Could have a 4" lolli somewhere on the south shore (might be us!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I tend to agree. Despite this, most of the general public doesn't even know what a WWA is or who issues one. And they modified the system to make it more simple for them- so no more Lake Effect Warnings? When we know there are major differences between synoptic events and Lake Effect (specifically the banding regions, consistency of the snow and the liquid ratios). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries have begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I’m in Vermont snow boarding so I’m hoping this one misses the city as I’ll miss snow removal money. Of course I want snow at home though to up the seasonal total I think the radar looks positive. I like that precip is already north of where the short range models are initiating I will say though, do to the short duration your going to have to rip for an hour or two if you want anything more then a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m in Vermont snow boarding so I’m hoping this one misses the city as I’ll miss snow removal money. Of course I want snow at home though to up the seasonal total I think the radar looks positive. I like that precip is already north of where the short range models are initiating I will say though, do to the short duration your going to have to rip for an hour or two if you want anything more then a coating Why didn't you wait to go until tomorrow I agree though I hate it when it snows and I'm not here. One particular time (back in the 90s) no clue what happened, but PA and NJ and the city were completely snowless and I came home to Long Island and there was like 2-3 inches of packed snow here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: And they modified the system to make it more simple for them- so no more Lake Effect Warnings? When we know there are major differences between synoptic events and Lake Effect (specifically the banding regions, consistency of the snow and the liquid ratios). There are lake effect warnings as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, Ericjcrash said: There are lake effect warnings as I type. So what was that in the news about removing the lake effect stuff? Just the watches? I heard blizzard watches are gone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 HRRRcut back once again though. DOA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I am in eastern PA under those intensifying radar echos. The ceiling here is coming down and we are seeing a steady light snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 LES warnings were supposedly going to be WSW but guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: HRRRcut back once again though. DOA? Look at the radar It looks good and it's pretty far northwest right now Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries have begun here, temp 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Look at the radar It looks good and it's pretty far northwest right now Enjoy the snow I see, it' just odd it keeps cutting back even though it looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, Paragon said: Could have a 4" lolli somewhere on the south shore (might be us!) Overperformers for us have been very few and far between as we know all too well. Let’s see what happens with the snow shield over the next few hours and hopefully a nice band can set up for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Steady light snow here - visibility 1 mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Overperformers for us have been very few and far between as we know all too well. Let’s see what happens with the snow shield over the next few hours and hopefully a nice band can set up for a while. Don’t know if it’s onto something but the new HRRR run is basically showing the precip shield on the northern side drying out and collapsing south and SE. Adjacent subsidence from the frontogenic band developing over central and southern NJ? The QPF is now well under .10 on the northern side of the shield north of that band, it’s cut back a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 We're still talking about an inch here, not a big loss or gain either way. WWA is probably warranted though in case a bit more falls in heavier bands, the cold roadway temps, and the rush hour timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Pixie dust falling right now in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Don’t know if it’s onto something but the new HRRR run is basically showing the precip shield on the northern side drying out and collapsing south and SE. Adjacent subsidence from the frontogenic band developing over central and southern NJ? The QPF is now well under .10 on the northern side of the shield north of that band, it’s cut back a lot I guess we’ll just have to see what happens. Hopefully most of us pull something off at least. It’ll be better than the zero we were expecting 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Already fizziling out from the NW and heavier echoes dying out as they race NE. Hopefully enough dust to whiten everything and I'll live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Pretty moderate snow falling in new brunswick right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 It's snowing , albeit lightly in Lynbrook. Whether 1 inch or 3 inches I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 first sign of flakes , now falling in New City / Rockland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries in Hauppauge now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 From flurries to light snow now, with a dusting covering everything at 25F, and 20+ DBZ echoes look like they're a mile or two from my house - can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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