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12/15 -16 /17 Sneaky Coastal

MJO812

By MJO812,
in New York City Metro

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Blizz

Blizz

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

5 hours isn't really worth the trouble.  The shooting stars last night were FAR more enjoyable.

12 hours at least of all daytime snow is worth the trouble.

 

Lol ok... Why are you on a weather forum then if you aren't excited about sneaky events like this? This is what makes weather and tracking it great. The "more than 5 hours" event was off the table over a week ago. Instead of clouds, we get snow. How the hell can you not appreciate that?

/banter

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Blizz said:

Lol ok... Why are you on a weather forum then if you aren't excited about sneaky events like this? This is what makes weather and tracking it great. The "more than 5 hours" event was off the table over a week ago. Instead of clouds, we get snow. How the hell can you not appreciate that?

/banter

Because these are really barely more than what we affectionately call "snow showers"

The real events are the ones you remember years/decades later (which I've mentioned frequently.)

If this becomes a 12 hour event I'll change my mind.  But 5 hours- hell no.

And no it's actually NOT off the table, those of us right along the coast could easily get more than that, especially with the recent trend.

4 inch snow accumulation is very close to my area.

That's the reason I'm tracking this.  I'm disputing that this is just a 5 hour "event"- if that's what I thought it would be I wouldn't pay it any attention.

Hazleton probably won't get anything, but your area got 10" in the weekend storm.

 

 

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, North and West said:


Being a hobbyist, I always forget which of the biases the models have. Does the HRRR generally skew higher or lower than what it displays?


.

 

It looks in line with the other guidance I've seen for 1-3 possibly 4"

We have a WWA from 1 PM to 1 AM for Long Island.

Looking at the "future radar" app on News 12, it looks like the snow comes in by 3 PM and stays until close to midnight- I would be happy with that!

 

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Blizz

Blizz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Actually according to that it looks like you could get 1" in Hazleton.  My sister lives in Carbon County and she is right under the 1.0 depiction (she measured 10 in last weekend's event.)

Wow, that's crazy 10"? I got 3" which I viewed as an over achiever... a lot of the models had it missing us SE even up to game time.

I do know it was a sharp cut off so I wouldn't be surprised if the Poconos saw a bit more.

I know you won't like to hear this, as it's the opposite view point of yours, but I would be content with a nice burst of snow tomorrow here and a dusting. Perhaps the coast saw more potential with this, but I certainly did not for my parts. :P

Also I know this is NYC forum... but the PA threads here are all dead. lol

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Blizz said:

Wow, that's crazy 10"? I got 3" which I viewed as an over achiever... a lot of the models had it missing us SE even up to game time.

I do know it was a sharp cut off so I wouldn't be surprised if the Poconos saw a bit more.

I know you won't like to hear this, as it's the opposite view point of yours, but I would be content with a nice burst of snow tomorrow here and a dusting. Perhaps the coast saw more potential with this, but I certainly did not for my parts. :P

Also I know this is NYC forum... but the PA threads here are all dead. lol

Yeah I was the dope because she asked me if I wanted to go there and I said No! Long Island is going to get more snow than Jim Thorpe! And she called me and told me it was snowing heavily all day and part of the night and she measured 10" there.  She's at 2,000 ft though (near Lake Harmony.)  I told her the snow wasn't sticking here during the day and we kept going until we somehow reached 4" by around 1 AM.  

NP man I know NE PA can be kind of a dead zone, that's why I post here even when I'm there for a week or two at a time.

 

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
lol any time, I know because whenever I drive through Morristown or near it on I-80 the roads are pretty awful in the winter.

 


I have to say, living in Morris County my entire life, my township and county do a terrific job on the roads every time it snows. As for the interstates, I have no idea how the state does. I don’t need to travel them for work. As soon as I cross into Essex County, things get awful on the road.


.
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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

and remember about this amount of snow being the worst to drive in (maybe because they can't plow unless it snows at least 3")

 

Can’t plow unless there’s 3” of snow??  It’s not the 70s anymore. I can’t speak for NJ but NYSDOTs official policy is if there is any white on the road between the white lines they drop the plow. It’s been that what for the past 20 years or so now. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Can’t plow unless there’s 3” of snow??  It’s not the 70s anymore. I can’t speak for NJ but NYSDOTs official policy is if there is any white on the road between the white lines they drop the plow. It’s been that what for the past 20 years or so now. 

It's what it is on Long Island.  At least that's what the DOT guy said on the radio when I was driving around.  It was for Suffolk County (not sure what it is in other parts of New York State.)

My sister said the same policy is true of PENNDOT.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, North and West said:


I have to say, living in Morris County my entire life, my township and county do a terrific job on the roads every time it snows. As for the interstates, I have no idea how the state does. I don’t need to travel them for work. As soon as I cross into Essex County, things get awful on the road.


.

Township and country roads are better than I-80 for sure.  Especially for the smaller amounts (1-3").

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
2 hours ago, Paragon said:
Just 5 hours? meh!

 
 

Yeah, just some unexpected snow that local news outlets hardly mentioned (at least in my area) falling during Friday PM rush hour in one of the most populated cities in world with temps below freezing and daytime sun angle near lowest of the entire year. Meh, what could go wrong?

It's not going to be 5 hours, maybe more like 10.  Maybe 5 for far inland locations.  My point is we're following this because it's going to be more significant than some thought, and a good chance of getting 4 inches of snow here.

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, tim said:

..quite the spread amongst NYC OCM'S..

CH.2..2-4+(notice the plus!)

CH.4..1-2

CH.7..2+...another "plus"!

these #'s represent where the WWA are forecasted..(ELI)

Based on the modeling, looks like central Long Island could get close to 4" too.

Don't watch Ch 4.  I don't watch NBC or any of their affiliates for anything.

 

 

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's what it is on Long Island.  At least that's what the DOT guy said on the radio when I was driving around.  It was for Suffolk County (not sure what it is in other parts of New York State.)

My sister said the same policy is true of PENNDOT.

 

There’s a difference between the maximum amount of snow allowed, per NYSDOTs policy, on the road versus when they start plowing. 

https://www.dot.ny.gov/divisions/operating/oom/transportation-maintenance/repository/NYS_SI_Manual_Apr2006_RevJan2012.pdf

3070EF8A-6DEE-4B78-9128-45D865840827.png

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

This is going to be our 3rd strong jet stream assist for snow here in a week. The 180+ KT exit region later on is very impressive. Almost reminds me of the snowmegeddon epic exit region for the Mid-Atlantic in Feb 10. This would have been a much bigger event if it got going in the Gulf instead of off the East Coast. Too bad we didn't have help from the NAO.

 

ecmwf_uvz300_east_4.thumb.png.894307fe816c74da7c1270653fbae708.png

 

 

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Mike woods CH5 just called it snow showers and said he expects an inch maybe 2,,,,,,said nothing about more on Eastern LI. lol

 

The problem with a few (not a large number, but a few) of the TV personalities is that they have very little knowledge of the dynamics involved and have difficulty actually reading and understanding the guidance beyond superficial qpf figures, as that handful did not actually study meteorology or even a related field. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Mr. Woods does not have a background in meteorology. When it comes to these kind of events, the lack of a background can be a significant disadvantage. In other words, a meteorological background adds value.

Much of Suffolk County will probably be in the 1"-3" locally 4" range (highest amounts in the eastern part of the County). NYC and its adjacent suburbs will probably be close to an inch (perhaps +/- 0.5"). A portion of the southern/central NJ coast will likely also see 2"-4".

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The problem with a few (not a large number, but a few) of the TV personalities is that they have very little knowledge of the dynamics involved and have difficulty actually reading and understanding the guidance beyond superficial qpf figures, as that handful did not actually study meteorology or even a related field. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Mr. Woods does not have a background in meteorology. When it comes to these kind of events, the lack of a background can be a significant disadvantage. In other words, a meteorological background adds value.

Much of Suffolk County will probably be in the 1"-3" locally 4" range (highest amounts in the eastern part of the County). NYC and its adjacent suburbs will probably be close to an inch (perhaps +/- 0.5"). A portion of the southern/central NJ coast will likely also see 2"-4".

Don - you're being kind. He's a friggin' moron when it comes to meteorology, as he regularly misspeaks about weather details; he should not be allowed to even report on the weather unless it's completely uneventful.  And you're correct that he's not an actual meteorologist:

"Mike holds a degree in Rhetoric and Communications, with an emphasis on atmospheric science, from U.C. Davis."

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Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The problem with a few (not a large number, but a few) of the TV personalities is that they have very little knowledge of the dynamics involved and have difficulty actually reading and understanding the guidance beyond superficial qpf figures, as that handful did not actually study meteorology or even a related field. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Mr. Woods does not have a background in meteorology. When it comes to these kind of events, the lack of a background can be a significant disadvantage. In other words, a meteorological background adds value.

Much of Suffolk County will probably be in the 1"-3" locally 4" range (highest amounts in the eastern part of the County). NYC and its adjacent suburbs will probably be close to an inch (perhaps +/- 0.5"). A portion of the southern/central NJ coast will likely also see 2"-4".

Don I completely understand. I do not post often but I do my best to read and learn and ask questions of you guys that actually understand the science involved. Some of these people on TV do seem to understand the science while others were doing traffic broadcast yesterday and today they are doing the weather,lol. Thanks Don

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Don - you're being kind. He's a friggin' moron when it comes to meteorology, as he regularly misspeaks about weather details; he should not be allowed to even report on the weather unless it's completely uneventful.  And you're correct that he's not an actual meteorologist:

"Mike holds a degree in Rhetoric and Communications, with an emphasis on atmospheric science, from U.C. Davis."

Thanks for this information, RU848789.

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