donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The 0z NAM looks quite similar to the 18z RGEM in terms of accumulations. Nice run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Nam looks like 2-3 inches across all of Long Island. Tight gradient with precip South to North. .4 inches not too far from south shore of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The 0z GFS is snowier than the 18z run, but not as aggressive as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just remember if this happens the Canadian called it days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 0z GFS is snowier than the 18z run, but not as aggressive as the NAM. 1-3 looks like a good call for the city as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1-3 looks like a good call for the city as of right now Agreed. 2-4" ceiling IMO as it's racing NE but should be fun watching radar explode tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1-3 looks like a good call for the city as of right now The 0z RGEM supports those numbers. Three snowfall events by mid-December is a nice treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Long range HRRR is wayyyy north and west... light snow as far north as Ulster county If the new 0z guidance is to be believed, in literally less than 24 hours we have gone from not expecting so much as a flurry NW of the city to 1-2 inches of snow all the way up into Orange County tomorrow night. Wow, just wow. The NWS is almost guaranteed to have special weather statements issued up here tomorrow morning. What a turn of events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Canadian backs way off at 0z =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the new 0z guidance is to be believed, in literally less than 24 hours we have gone from not expecting so much as a flurry NW of the city to 1-2 inches of snow all the way up into Orange County tomorrow night. Wow, just wow. The NWS is almost guaranteed to have special weather statements issued up here tomorrow morning. What a turn of events... It looks like the models so far have been behaving that way - unexpectedly pulling moisture and low pressure systems back to the NW almost last minute. Wondering if that's going to continue for the rest of the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Canadian backs way off at 0z =/ It's over Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's over Jk Well It's not good when the model that's captaining the ship jumps overboard. RGEM is ok still so that's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I'll be shocked if we see more than an inch from this, but stranger things have happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'll be shocked if we see more than an inch from this, but stranger things have happened before. Why would you be shocked ? Every model is trending northwest with this and the snow is going to fall in very cold upper levels . High ratios snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Ukie came northwest Few inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 what is the timeframe for this if it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: what is the timeframe for this if it happens? probably snowing Friday 2pm - 7pm I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'll be shocked if we see more than an inch from this, but stranger things have happened before. Prepared to be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 NWS at Upton: Although the heaviest snowfall will remain well south of the area, mid-upper level lift/saturation will gradually increase into the evening, with any developing precipitation aloft subsequently saturating low levels enough to produce at least a dusting of snow along the coast. A slight northward shift noted in the 18z guidance, which if trend continues would increase potential for a light measurable snow across at least southern and eastern portions of the Tri- State, but at this point only a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more than an inch of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, husky0101 said: - State, but at this point only a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more than an inch of snowfall. I guess they will be shocked as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, husky0101 said: probably snowing Friday 2pm - 7pm I think wow that early, I thought it was going to be overnight into Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, husky0101 said: NWS at Upton: Although the heaviest snowfall will remain well south of the area, mid-upper level lift/saturation will gradually increase into the evening, with any developing precipitation aloft subsequently saturating low levels enough to produce at least a dusting of snow along the coast. A slight northward shift noted in the 18z guidance, which if trend continues would increase potential for a light measurable snow across at least southern and eastern portions of the Tri- State, but at this point only a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more than an inch of snowfall. 18z run they quoted Good chance of at least 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Just remember if this happens the Canadian called it days ago. The Canadian has been money all season. Just wanted to give it props. Happy birthday to me, looking like a few places in south and central jersey have a shot of 2-3” of high ratio fluff. Fun little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: The Canadian has been money all season. Just wanted to give it props. Happy birthday to me, looking like a few places in south and central jersey have a shot of 2-3” of high ratio fluff. Fun little surprise. Well the 0z Canadian is a little further SE. Either way I'm expecting 1-3" city/west and 2-4" city/east. And 3-6" southern NJ. Ratios look relatively high. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 hours ago, husky0101 said: It looks like the models so far have been behaving that way - unexpectedly pulling moisture and low pressure systems back to the NW almost last minute. Wondering if that's going to continue for the rest of the winter... It works both ways If they show a nice hit a few days out, expect to get a storm cutting to our west lol That said with three minor-moderate events in the same week, looks like the Dec 2005 analogy is working out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Well the 0z Canadian is a little further SE. Either way I'm expecting 1-3" city/west and 2-4" city/east. And 3-6" southern NJ. Ratios look relatively high. We'll see what happens. So a bit more than the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 hours ago, husky0101 said: probably snowing Friday 2pm - 7pm I think Just 5 hours? meh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Just 5 hours? meh! Who cares ? Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who cares ? Enjoy the snow 5 hours isn't really worth the trouble. The shooting stars last night were FAR more enjoyable. 12 hours at least of all daytime snow is worth the trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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