mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: You can see the issues on the LR 12z EPS. Hopefully we can cash in on any overrunning event near X-mas. Once we get beyond Day 10 on the EPS you see -PNA and +AO. WOuld probably mean any energy would be dumped into the Southwest, boosting the SE Ridge. We'll see though. If somehow we get a SECS X-Mas eve or day none of us would care. Last night's run post day 10 looked great so no reason to fret. Just wait for the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 lol Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Last night's run post day 10 looked great so no reason to fret. Just wait for the 0z. Today's run d10+ looks totally fine. Epo ridge on roids and strong confluence to our N. Lots of precip on the mean panels and cold enough. I thought the run looked really good beyond d10. Not a KU look or anything but very workable for winter wx here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Bob you see that little CAD signature @ 144 hours? Could sneak a light WAA event then. Thoughts? I see it but a lot of warmth builds in NA prior to that. CAD is only as good as the source. I suppose it's possible. Things get much better right around Christmas and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I'm bummed that that map includes today's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Man the euro is punishing ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I'm bummed that that map includes today's snow. Doesn't add much for DC though. Only 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: A bit high ratios. 10:1 seems most accurate. Looked at temps during storm, and it's at a solid 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: who? Jebman? I would love to see his posts during an Xmas snow event. I picture him in boxers making snow angels with a Santa hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Only 10-20% chance of high on Christmas to be above 50F While 40-50% chance of 1 inch accumulation for DC (disregard odds East of DC, as they are larger due to today's storm. EPS odds show 0% chance slightly West of DC for today's event to exceed an inch) Odds of 1" in the next 24 hours just so you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: GFS has snow christmas eve and the cmc has ice christmas day. 2 for 2 @ 12z for frozen on the holiday. It's going to be a looooong week.... And you know some met somewhere is gonna start stirring pot on this in a few days. I sense a fun show of weather politics ahead as well, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 can someone please post the Euro 384 snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: can someone please post the Euro 384 snowfall map? I think it only goes out to 240, when in fact, it should only go out for 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And you know some met somewhere is gonna start stirring pot on this in a few days. I sense a fun show of weather politics ahead as well, lol Weather politics are always entertaining....especially on twitter. I agree...Weather is an odd science....twitter has made it that way. Phd's arguing with pimple poppers in their parent's basement is my favorite. Consider it a cup of cheer for the holidays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I'll do this with my standard disclaimer that I hate snowfall maps... EPS mean on the 23rd EPS mean on the 30th Another good sign is the mean high temps have ticked way down run over run for Christmas. 4 runs ago showed mid to upper 40s for highs and today's run showed upper 30's to low 40's. That's a good sign that the important boundary is actually speeding up over time. Still a razor thin setup. I'm mentally preparing myself for rain on the holiday while folks fairly close get snow. Maybe not NMD but PA northward is in a much better spot than my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 This type of setup is going to be agonizing for some as the jackpot zone is likely to be vary narrow, with people just a little north cold and dry, and folks a little south in cold rain. Almost guaranteed to start intra-forum civil wars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 EPS with an uptick in qpf and snowfall during the period.... I agree that the look is not bad. Probably a decent cold wintery period thru the end of the run. The issue I have is you can see the way the EPS wants to go. Retro the ridge toward the Aleutians and create a more nina look. Way out there and very muddied so probably not worth overanalyzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: This type of setup is going to be agonizing for some as the jackpot zone is likely to be vary narrow, with people just a little north cold and dry, and folks a little south in cold rain. Almost guaranteed to start intra-forum civil wars... I-64 would work for that tine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: This type of setup is going to be agonizing for some as the jackpot zone is likely to be vary narrow, with people just a little north cold and dry, and folks a little south in cold rain. Almost guaranteed to start intra-forum civil wars... Yeah I hate these setups. They hardly ever work for us, and even when they do, snow totals are very underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Maybe I will get to use this in the next few weeks. A new one of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll do this with my standard disclaimer that I hate snowfall maps... EPS mean on the 23rd EPS mean on the 30th Another good sign is the mean high temps have ticked way down run over run for Christmas. 4 runs ago showed mid to upper 40s for highs and today's run showed upper 30's to low 40's. That's a good sign that the important boundary is actually speeding up over time. Still a razor thin setup. I'm mentally preparing myself for rain on the holiday while folks fairly close get snow. Maybe not NMD but PA northward is in a much better spot than my yard. Looks good for my Christmas trip to SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 We're gonna will this thing south. We're gonna bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Even though details 5+ days out are never right, you can usually get a good idea based on the pattern whether or not a snow event is possible 5-6-7+ days out. Reason I say that is because it is beginning to be clear that we could be tracking a winter storm for x-mas eve/day. You can't beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Even though details 5+ days out are never right, you can usually get a good idea based on the pattern whether or not a snow event is possible 5-6-7+ days out. Reason I say that is because it is beginning to be clear that we could be tracking a winter storm for x-mas eve/day. You can't beat that. Yup. Good signal there. I also like how temps have been trending. Just a few days ago we had the threat for 70 degrees on Christmas. If anything, the warmest we're getting is 50 degrees here near DC, and that's still unlikely. Gonna be a tough week jumping back and forth between favorable and not favorable with the ensembles and the OPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Definitely some support for possible frozen mid week day 5/6 per Eps. Most have high pressure over top. Maybe we can overperform again . Temps do look more marginal though . Cad sig For @Wentzadelphia I count 9 or so members. It's a start. Things have been busting cold and trending in our favor so I'm very keen on tracking every possible chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just going off general memory and not digging through a ton of runs...it sure seems like the long range ridge looks trend flatter as we close in time. Euro definitely has. It threw out some monster ridge runs for next week that all faded. Gfs seems to be doing it too. Getting the boundary through here before Christmas may not be as hard as it seems. Certainly trending towards flatter/faster today and it's no longer in uber long range. Eps backed way off the big ridge looks. Gefs has been jumpy so not as easy to see. Eta: forgot the gfs is running. Lol. Sure enough, flatter faster next week. Not bad. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The op 18z has really morphed into something quite different. Dry and chilly. Interesting solutions. Some less exciting than others. Overrunning is what I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The op 18z has really morphed into something quite different. Dry and chilly. Interesting solutions. Some less exciting than others. Overrunning is what I want. That's probably the least likely type of outcome and the gefs does not agree at all. I liked the speed of the front. Faster is definitely better in this setup. Our biggest risk by far imho is rain/warm and not dry/chilly. 0z will prob rain on us. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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