Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 GFS has snow christmas eve and the cmc has ice christmas day. 2 for 2 @ 12z for frozen on the holiday. It's going to be a looooong week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS has snow christmas eve and the cmc has ice christmas day. 2 for 2 @ 12z for frozen on the holiday. It's going to be a looooong week.... maybe we can get both if the front takes its time. would rather ice first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS has snow christmas eve and the cmc has ice christmas day. 2 for 2 @ 12z for frozen on the holiday. It's going to be a looooong week.... LOL at the HPs... 1041 in Quebec at at 234 and 1054 in WY at 240 ETA: 12z GGEM that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ji said: mostly blue though Will verify in the highest shade of red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Will verify in the highest shade of red. Thanks Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Thanks Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 No signs of -EPO until day 8 and Alaska has been underperforming all year. Day 8-15 is probably much different. I think +PNA snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Euro similar to the GFS for Christmas eve. Nice little event but equally as fragile. Nice to see 12z ops all give a little holiday frozen cheer. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nice little vort at hour 138 on the Euro. Gets a slug of moisture near us Wed evening . Little bonus high above. Semi interesting Yes, something to watch. For now, no real QPF north or RIC on that system for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro similar to the GFS for Christmas eve. Nice little event but equally as fragile. Nice to see 12z ops all give a little holiday frozen cheer. lol quite amazed they are tracking with each other..hardly happens it seems this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro similar to the GFS for Christmas eve. Nice little event but equally as fragile. Nice to see 12z ops all give a little holiday frozen cheer. lol goes into Christmas Day as well... bring that wave of moisture about 75 miles SE and we get a decent lil snow event at 222-234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, yoda said: goes into Christmas Day as well Flip to zr then rain verbatim but it's another set of runs with frozen centered right around the holiday. I said it before....it's going to be a long week....very long...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 but it give me a boost of confidence that the front will be closer to us than I thought earlier...just don't want it to push through to hard...tightrope..I love and hate being on a weather tightrope...I usually fall off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Flip to zr then rain verbatim but it's another set of runs with frozen centered right around the holiday. I said it before....it's going to be a long week....very long...lol just for laughs did 0z Euro have similar. I looked through posts and didn't see it really analyzed..just wondering where we are headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Dunno if weatherbell includes sleet into their snow accum maps, but DC has around 3" of snow OTG Christmas Eve ETA: at 240, N MD/NW VA have 6-10" of snow, DC/IAD 3-4", BWI 4", but EZF is around 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Dunno if weatherbell includes sleet into their snow accum maps, but DC has around 3" of snow OTG Christmas Eve Festive that is. Snow or do not...there is no try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: just for laughs did 0z Euro have similar. I looked through posts and didn't see it really analyzed..just wondering where we are headed No, 0z was a dry front and cool/cold christmas. The entire setup is razor thin and fragile. My guess is models will slow down the cold but this year seems to want to deliver so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looking closer....it would be 1-6" of snow (you know who is 6") with a lot of ice on top. Very wintry event. Just need it to hold for 8 days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looking closer....it would be 1-6" of snow (you know who is 6") with a lot of ice on top. Very wintry event. Just need it to hold for 8 days. lol who? Jebman? I would love to see his posts during an Xmas snow event. I picture him in boxers making snow angels with a Santa hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking closer....it would be 1-6" of snow (you know who is 6") with a lot of ice on top. Very wintry event. Just need it to hold for 8 days. lol Like 50 miles South, and we cash in on that snow just to our North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking closer....it would be 1-6" of snow (you know who is 6") with a lot of ice on top. Very wintry event. Just need it to hold for 8 days. lol My favorite type of storm. Snow to the sound of sleet, maybe a little freezing rain thrown in and end as snow. Not asking too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: My favorite type of storm. Snow to the sound of sleet, maybe a little freezing rain thrown in and end as snow. Not asking too much. People like you are weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: People like you are weird. He's not a person, he's a dog. So leave him alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12z EURO is an acceptable event for I-66 north Xmas Eve into the wee hours of Xmas, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: He's not a person, he's a dog. So leave him alone! Ruff!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 the 12z GFS has .28 of liquid in 16 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 EPS somewhat supportive of the op's christmas event. Still a ton of spread and the razor thin margin is apparent even on the ens. If this year really is going to overperform, the Christmas eve/day potential will be a good test. We're conditioned to end up on the wrong side. That doesn't seem to be happening this year so far. Will it continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 You can see the issues on the LR 12z EPS. Hopefully we can cash in on any overrunning event near X-mas. Once we get beyond Day 10 on the EPS you see -PNA and +AO. WOuld probably mean any energy would be dumped into the Southwest, boosting the SE Ridge. We'll see though. If somehow we get a SECS X-Mas eve or day none of us would care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Bob you see that little CAD signature @ 144 hours? Could sneak a light WAA event then. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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