December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Bob Chill]

You guys focusing on the hp are looking at the wrong panels. H5 tells the real story. Massive return flow running up the ridge. Highs to the north don't do jack for caa when we're ridging out and strong sw midlevel winds. 

[clskinsfan]

Well. If you are gonna have a cutter this is the way we want it. A front end overrun thump then dry slot. We can sometimes do OK in those setups. At least the storm is still there.

[Jebman]

It's super entertaining readin' these informative threads. Its also entertaining watching the mood swings lol.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys focusing on the hp are looking at the wrong panels. H5 tells the real story. Massive return flow running up the ridge. Highs to the north don't do jack for caa when we're ridging out and strong sw midlevel winds. 

Yup. Compare the euro to the GFS at 500mb. When the height lines diverge above the surface high, it’s gonna fold like a cheap shirt. Have them converge above the high and it will hold strong. Hence the euro storm stays to our south, even when the shortwave out west looks pretty similar.

[Interstate]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Well. If you are gonna have a cutter this is the way we want it. A front end overrun thump then dry slot. We can sometimes do OK in those setups. At least the storm is still there.

What is the point when you get into the 60s on the same day?

[pasnownut]

38 minutes ago, Amped said:

18z gfs digging the troff into California, Terrible run.

Yeah youre right....thru the next 48 hours....

500 shows it briefly and then from 12/24 on, nothing of the sort. 

beyond the weekend, its still very nice. From Xmas eve day onward, 2m temps see 1 day in the 30's, and remainder is basically an icebox through 384. 

Its just an op run way beyond its sweet spot.....

Ensembles will lead us close to the promise land....

[Cobalt]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Yeah youre right....thru the next 48 hours....

500 shows it briefly and then from 12/24 on, nothing of the sort. 

beyond the weekend, its still very nice. From Xmas eve day onward, 2m temps see 1 day in the 30's, and remainder is basically an icebox through 384. 

Its just an op run way beyond its sweet spot.....

Ensembles will lead us close to the promise land....

Agree with you completely. Op runs 5+ days out are pure baloney. I may be saying that cause the run is ugly, but we also know to not trust the storms when they show substantial snow d5+

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. Compare the euro to the GFS at 500mb. When the height lines diverge above the surface high, it’s gonna fold like a cheap shirt. Have them converge above the high and it will hold strong. Hence the euro storm stays to our south, even when the shortwave out west looks pretty similar.

The type of track on the gfs is completely viable. Nobody can say with any confidence what sort of track the storm will take and that's already getting ahead a bit becuase we don't even know if the storm will exist. We don't have any meaningful blocking to slow down the flow. It's progressive and the pieces are moving all over. 

I will say that there is enough cold running around where we could easily score with a west track so there's that. Also, the gfs digging for oil in the west while the east goes over the top ridge happy seems like a less likely scenario regardless. The optimistic side of me sees the run as more support for a significant storm before the new year. 

[Amped]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Agree with you completely. Op runs 5+ days out are pure baloney. I may be saying that cause the run is ugly, but we also know to not trust the storms when they show substantial snow d5+

This is why I never get my hopes up. and would rather see an OTS track than a hit on models at that range.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The type of track on the gfs is completely viable. Nobody can say with any confidence what sort of track the storm will take and that already getting ahead a bit becuase we don't even know if the storm will exist. We don't have any meaningful blocking to slow down the flow. It's progressive and the pieces are moving all over. 

I will say that there is enough cold running around where we could easily score with a west track so there's that. Also, the gfs digging for oil in the west while the easy goes over the top ridge happy seems like a less likely scenario regardless. The optimistic side of me sees the run as more support for a significant storm before the new year. 

I agree with you. Signal of storm is more important now rather than storm track. Going back to yesterday, here's what DT says about the setup

 

[Rtd208]

Sometimes the models perform well at longer lead times depending on the pattern, this is NOT one of those weather patterns. You can also tell that it just wants to snow this winter versus some other years which is always a plus.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Sometimes the models perform well at longer lead times depending on the pattern, this is NOT one of those weather patterns. You can also tell that it just wants to snow this winter versus some other years which is always a plus.

I agree with the first part of that statement. The part about it just wanting to snow.  I haven’t seen that.  Yes it has snowed but not a great amount and not with any quantity/frequency I would deem abnormal.  It’s just a lot better than last December.

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Sometimes the models perform well at longer lead times depending on the pattern, this is NOT one of those weather patterns. You can also tell that it just wants to snow this winter versus some other years which is always a plus.

The tendency early as well has been for weaker systems overall.  It may be too soon to really have a handle on that but the way it’s gone so far and the fact it’s a La Niña without blocking I’m goong to hedge towards a less phased weaker system in the 27th-30th window right now 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I agree with the first part of that statement. The part about it just wanting to snow.  I haven’t seen that.  Yes it has snowed but not a great amount and not with any quantity/frequency I would deem abnormal.  It’s just a lot better than last December.

I think what he's saying (and I agree with) is when opportunities have presented themselves they've all worked out for the most part. We normally squander 2-3 ops before we get one event. Last year we tried to squander all of them and and there really weren't many to begin with. 

We seem to have inexplicable personalities to our winters where some years things keep working out and other years we can't buy a shred of luck even if we sacrificed chickens and boiled bat lips with crows teeth. 

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The type of track on the gfs is completely viable. Nobody can say with any confidence what sort of track the storm will take and that's already getting ahead a bit becuase we don't even know if the storm will exist. We don't have any meaningful blocking to slow down the flow. It's progressive and the pieces are moving all over. 

I will say that there is enough cold running around where we could easily score with a west track so there's that. Also, the gfs digging for oil in the west while the east goes over the top ridge happy seems like a less likely scenario regardless. The optimistic side of me sees the run as more support for a significant storm before the new year. 

while its not worth nitpicking an op run at such long leads, i'm taking it you dont like the 500/700 panels on 12/28? 

if were going to discuss, IMO this is a progressive pattern, and while it may attack the H's to the north, it looks to me just like an overrunning event that will have CAD to also fight here in the east with a 1053 high in eastern canada.  Wouldnt that help this to belly under?

I didnt hit the bottle yet, but I just dont see "terrible" here.  I see volatile/progressive plenty of cold around?

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think what he's saying (and I agree with) is when opportunities have presented themselves they've all worked out for the most part. We normally squander 2-3 ops before we get one event. Last year we tried to squander all of them and and there really weren't many to begin with. 

We seem to have inexplicable personalities to our winters where some years things keep working out and other years we can't buy a shred of luck even if we sacrificed chickens and boiled bat lips with crows teeth. 

Ok.  I was thinking more along the lines of frequency.  Doesn't matter it will do what it wishes.  We just have to get lucky with the right pattern  There is no magic formula really.  

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Any word on the GEFS?

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

while its not worth nitpicking an op run at such long leads, i'm taking it you dont like the 500/700 panels on 12/28? 

if were going to discuss, IMO this is a progressive pattern, and while it may attack the H's to the north, it looks to me just like an overrunning event that will have CAD to also fight here in the east with a 1053 high in eastern canada.  Wouldnt that help this to belly under?

I didnt hit the bottle yet, but I just dont see "terrible" here.  I see volatile/progressive plenty of cold around?

 

When the trough out west digs for oil and the east ridges out, there is a massive fetch of midlevel warmth pressing against the hp. The strength of the high can only help so much when return flow is pressing in like this:

The real deep cold and arctic boundary is all the way up in NY and retreating. The cad we have is insitu so while the surface may hang tight, there is no way the midlevels survive very long. 

It's definitely not terrible becuase we get snowed on before losing the column. That's a win. But as depicted it's a very disappointing storm becuase everyone in the east would go sn>pl>zr then dryslot. A very warm dryslot at that followed by rain.

Personally, I see the fact that we get any snow as a huge plus becuase the upper air pattern sucks. If we can get snow with what the gfs just spit out then we can probably get snow from any progression that involves precip. I don't think the gfs is a likely outcome. Quite the opposite. But a west track in general is probably favored over underneath and east. I only say that because we don't have any blocking in place. A transient block or simply good timing could be a significant event. 

[BristowWx]

GEFS looks cold to me straight through 300.  Never gets above 32.  How often we see that.  I am pretty happy

EDIT:  through 360

[Amped]

Euro and UKMET have a strong low over the central pacific at 72 and 96 hrs, where the GFS has several weak ones.    This is what seems to cause issues later on in the run.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS looks cold to me straight through 300.  Never gets above 32.  How often we see that.  I am pretty happy

It also seems to really support what the euro op did. Looks like worst case the low drives west of the apps before jumping the coast south of our latitude.  Thats what the mean implies anyways.

I'll bet the member panels look pretty good. Still going to be some rainers in the mix. AN heights in the south are showing up but overall the run looked really good to me  

[psuhoffman]

Until a specific threat gets inside 120 hours (at least) and maybe even 72, people can save themselves a lot of agrivation and just look at the ensembles. The ops are going to be all over the place in this type pattern. 

[Cobalt]

GEFS individual members are certainly better. Not just 1 or 2 members that up the mean. Plenty of snowy solutions. FWIW 16/20 members give folks just west of DC at least 1" before new years

[Cobalt]

Pure fantasy at this point, but 10/20 members give DC 5"+ by Jan 5th. 7/20 give DC 8"+, and not one members shuts us out. In fact, we have a bigger chance according to the GEFS of getting 10"+ than we do of getting less than 1"

[pasnownut]

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When the trough out west digs for oil and the east ridges out, there is a massive fetch of midlevel warmth pressing against the hp. The strength of the high can only help so much when return flow is pressing in like this:

The real deep cold and arctic boundary is all the way up in NY and retreating. The cad we have is insitu so while the surface may hang tight, there is no way the midlevels survive very long. 

It's definitely not terrible becuase we get snowed on before losing the column. That's a win. But as depicted it's a very disappointing storm becuase everyone in the east would go sn>pl>zr then dryslot. A very warm dryslot at that followed by rain.

Personally, I see the fact that we get any snow as a huge plus becuase the upper air pattern sucks. If we can get snow with what the gfs just spit out then we can probably get snow from any progression that involves precip. I don't think the gfs is a likely outcome. Quite the opposite. But a west track in general is probably favored over underneath and east. I only say that because we don't have any blocking in place. A transient block or simply good timing could be a significant event. 

Yeah i get all of your points and agree wholeheartedly.  You said what I see.  I guess my only thought is knowing that as we are entering a period of time that much more substantial cold will be around...I'm just not buying it being bullied around so easily as weve been seeing model consensus suggesting the cold will hold.  Mind you it needs to get here first....

thanks for confirming my suspicions. 

[poolz1]

If there is nothing to hold the HP in place, as WxUSAF alluded to, the HP will run like a whipped pup.  I dont necessarily agree with the op but what it showed is not unbelievable. Everything is on the table...including cold smoke and taint.. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Pure fantasy at this point, but 10/20 members give DC 5"+ by Jan 5th. 7/20 give DC 8"+, and not one members shuts us out. In fact, we have a bigger chance according to the GEFS of getting 10"+ than we do of getting less than 1"

Way too much raw math Cobalt. You need to put "$" signs in front of the numbers so they make sense to me. Thanks. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Pretty healthy signals showing up in the long term of a -PNA pattern. La Nina is starting to flex its muscles. 

[WxUSAF]

The position of the PV is our block. If it stays to the north and keeps pressing, but not moving south, it acts as a block and forces the low south. If a piece breaks off and phases, the low will cut. If the PV moves elsewhere, the low will cut. It has to be positioned well to force the low south.

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

If there is nothing to hold the HP in place, as WxUSAF alluded to, the HP will run like a whipped pup.  I dont necessarily agree with the op but what it showed is not unbelievable. Everything is on the table...including cold smoke and taint.. 

yeah, get that too, but I guess i was blending my thinking with the ensembles of late showing the more sustained looks and was blending that with an Op run.

Thats all.