Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Wow...some massive hits day 9-15 on the Eps. Day 15 mean snow is the best of the season without a doubt. Almost as much snow on the mean as GEFS, and the GEFS can have just 2 or 3 members skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Wow...some massive hits day 9-15 on the Eps. Day 15 mean snow is the best of the season without a doubt. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Some of this may be due to the modeled snowpack but with the exception of a day or two, sub-freezing highs over the course of a whole week. What a way to end 17 and welcome 18. That's the 0z ens run. 12z is even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I got it for you Half of e12's snow total is from a Christmas event, so that's more of a dream scenario eC is the story of the winter. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: eC is the story of the winter. Jeez. but you know that e12 will verify with this period... so all is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's the 0z ens run. 12z is even colder. Oops, thanks. Deleted my post. Curious for those with access to the individual members on WxBell...are there cutters/northern solutions around the 29th? Seems like there may given the spread in temps that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 54 minutes ago, mitchnick said: see, I guess that's my problem with the ensembles....an inch and a half is not a strong signal to me at all That's about as good as you will see that far out. A typical mean for any given 24 hour period during winter is perhaps .025-.5". That accounts for the fact that any given day there is some chance at a fluke snow so all it takes is a couple hits out of 52 to show that. When you start seeing a mean much above that it either means there are some massive hits in there or a lot of members showing some snow. Either way it's a signal for something. If 1/3 of the members show 5" and the others nothing the mean is 1.5-2". Having a 1/3 chance at 5" on any given day that's 9 days away is a huge signal and way above the normal chances of 5" of snow on any random day in winter. Your never going to have much higher probs then that at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Are those time series plots of temperature available on weather.us? If yes, how does one create them? Or are those a WxBell product based on the weather.us output? The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks don't tell us anything we don't know but its comforting to see below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation forecast for both periods. "IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED 500 hPa TROUGH, RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, ALONG WITH SOME EASTWARD progression OVER THE CONUS". Perhaps that'll help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Are those time series plots of temperature available on weather.us? If yes, how does one create them? Or are those a WxBell product based on the weather.us output? The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks don't tell us anything we don't know but its comforting to see below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation forecast for both periods. "IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED 500 hPa TROUGH, RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, ALONG WITH SOME EASTWARD progression OVER THE CONUS". Perhaps that'll help us. The time series plots are here: http://wx.graphics/ They are listed as ECMWF City Charts, EPS City Charts, and GFS City Charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Today's 12z runs were weenie runs all the way. I don't care what ops show for day 9. The ensembles were about as weenie as could be. A while ago I had a checklist of what it would take for me to feel good about this winter. Start getting some snow from our first threats...check see signs blocking wants to hold this year. It doesn't have to be nao. The epo and AO seem to want to take turns helping. Check get to xmas without staring down some prolonged torch. Check. What I am looking for now to feel this potential is real. No real improvement in the look just stability. Seeing it lock in. Then the pretty snow mean should keep creeping up as we get closer and the bad outliers drop away. But overall I feel optimistic about where we're heading. I think/hope I was wrong about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Today's 12z runs were weenie runs all the way. I don't care what ops show for day 9. The ensembles were about as weenie as could be. A while ago I had a checklist of what it would take for me to feel good about this winter. Start getting some snow from our first threats...check see signs blocking wants to hold this year. It doesn't have to be nao. The epo and AO seem to want to take turns helping. Check get to xmas without staring down some prolonged torch. Check. What I am looking for now to feel this potential is real. No real improvement in the look just stability. Seeing it lock in. Then the pretty snow mean should keep creeping up as we get closer and the bad outliers drop away. But overall I feel optimistic about where we're heading. I think/hope I was wrong about this winter. I think if we get at least 1 good event in these next 2 weeks (4"+), we'll all feel good about our winter. Better than all of 13/14 or 14/15 or even 15/16 where most of us had to wait until mid-late January to get into the meat of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: I think if we get at least 1 good event in these next 2 weeks (4"+), we'll all feel good about our winter. Better than all of 13/14 or 14/15 or even 15/16 where most of us had to wait until mid-late January to get into the meat of the winter. It’s funny. People generally forget how mediocre 15/16 was, bar the Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: It’s funny. People generally forget how mediocre 15/16 was, bar the Blizzard. I still wouldn't trade away the blizzard for a bunch of smaller events. That blizzard was textbook, and it was beautiful. I missed my Algebra midterm, and I got to jump off my deck into a snow mound. Only good event the rest of the way was really the Presidents day event, but still, the blizzard was as amazing as a storm can get. Consistent forecast, models picked it up 5 days out. Perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I still wouldn't trade away the blizzard for a bunch of smaller events. That blizzard was textbook, and it was beautiful. I missed my Algebra midterm, and I got to jump off my deck into a snow mound. Only good event the rest of the way was really the Presidents day event, but still, the blizzard was as amazing as a storm can get. Consistent forecast, models picked it up 5 days out. Perfection. No doubt it was great, but I will also never forget the 70s on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Mitch will like the 18z gfs. Better push of cold and height pattern vs 12z. Should keep some of the rain away from his yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18z gfs digging the troff into California, Terrible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mitch will like the 18z gfs. Better push of cold and height pattern vs 12z. Should keep some of the rain away from his yard. Mitch is a cranky old man who just can't get happy when it comes to computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 In regards to the 28-30 storm, 18z GFS is anything but happy hour. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Mitch is a cranky old man who just can't get happy when it comes to computer models. Apparently the 18z gfs is going to make sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Ice storm incoming? 1050 banana high...A real GL block would be useful right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: In regards to the 28-30 storm, 18z GFS is anything but happy hour. Lol. The good news is, it's still 6 days out. Bad news is, it's 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 So can a 1051 High north of NY win over the waa? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS does weird progression NAO days 5-6. maybe we're in more consistent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Monster banana high on the GFS this run. It is acting the way I expected the 12Z to act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Alrighty then... a 1050 H gets shoved out of the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18z GFS is something strange. 1050 H would push that storm South no doubt. Again, it's an op run 8 days out, so it's not the end of the world. Ensembles are the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Based on the patterns this fall and met winter, things would move east faster than what the Gfs shows imho, which would up snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 PNA disaster run. Slowly eating away the 1050mb high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I bet the ensembles paint a more favorable picture than the op run does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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