WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 GEFS is active AF after the 28-29th. Storm track seems to steadily move SEward during the last week of the run. Temps stay below average. Edit...with cross polar flow much of that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ever since the upgrade the GEFS tends to swing lock step with the op way too much. Its to the point that I tend to use the last several runs of the GEFS and kind of average them together in my mind to get a more effective feel then to use any one ensemble run. Its a shame they don't fix that. But they jump around way too much run to run right now. One of the side-effects of the GEFS following the op so closely is that the window in which the op out-verifies the ensemble is small. The GEFS tend to outperform the GFS up until about 48 hours before the event, and even within 48 hours there's not much difference between the two. Of course the op is still better for high-res stuff like identifying likely snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, Negnao said: For what it's worth, nice jump on the snowfall mean on the gefs. Just trying to stay positive. It means something. Snow mean maps can tell you something if you know how to use them. Op snow maps at range are useless. Using mean snow maps for details are useless. Where the fringe will be. Or thinking they are going to pick up on exactly where features will be. They are smoothed. But they can give a quick general feel for where the ensembles think the general storm track is going to be. So looking at that, keeping in mind a lot of that snow to our northeast is from the next 5 days, if you take that out in your mind it's obvious where the storm track is days 5-16. Also notice the sagging snow max into central NC. That's a great sign for us. It means lots of members are seeing CAD and coastal redevelopment on storms. The axis of snow is clearly through the mid Atlantic after day 5. Now this is just one run and a long range so taking too much is a bad idea but it was a good run. Honestly 4 of the last 5 gefs were heading this way too with 6z being the one not so good blip in the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Best run of the GEFS I've seen this year. Very active and many opportunities. The op's rainy cutter post xmas is a minority with not a lot of support. The majority are mixed or snow events. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro tailing off the XMas shortwave more than the GFS through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro tailing off the XMas shortwave more than the GFS through 72. as long as it brings the cold in...Xmas flakes will have to remain elusive and only in our dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro has a much weaker disturbance than the GFS in the pacnw at 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 La Nina really connecting with pattern right now. This wasn't so much the case before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The good news is the euro has the arctic boundary overhead @ hr144 with a much better height pattern to keep it pressing. GFS may have been a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good news is the euro has the arctic boundary overhead @ hr144 with a much better height pattern to keep it pressing. GFS may have been a blip. Yeah euro is way flatter than the gfs or CMC. 1044 high over NE at 168hrs, broad low amplitude troff in the central US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Nice, light overunning breaking out @ hr180 and decent CAD in place. Similar to the GFS with timing but colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Best run of the GEFS I've seen this year. Very active and many opportunities. The op's rainy cutter post xmas is a minority with not a lot of support. The majority are mixed or snow events. Great run. Agreed. It was a "fun" looking run to me. I care way more what the EPS/Gefs and to some extent the Geps has to say about days 5-15 then the ops right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good news is the euro has the arctic boundary overhead @ hr144 with a much better height pattern to keep it pressing. GFS may have been a blip. cold is anemic on day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It means something. Snow mean maps can tell you something if you know how to use them. Op snow maps at range are useless. Using mean snow maps for details are useless. Where the fringe will be. Or thinking they are going to pick up on exactly where features will be. They are smoothed. But they can give a quick general feel for where the ensembles think the general storm track is going to be. So looking at that, keeping in mind a lot of that snow to our northeast is from the next 5 days, if you take that out in your mind it's obvious where the storm track is days 5-16. Also notice the sagging snow max into central NC. That's a great sign for us. It means lots of members are seeing CAD and coastal redevelopment on storms. The axis of snow is clearly through the mid Atlantic after day 5. Now this is just one run and a long range so taking too much is a bad idea but it was a good run. Honestly 4 of the last 5 gefs were heading this way too with 6z being the one not so good blip in the trend. One thing to add. Look how far south that snow is showing up. A good indication that the cold is penetrating deep south. Probably a decent indication that there is some suppression in play at times during this period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: cold is anemic on day 8 Well, CAD wins and you never mix so take it as a win for now and don't will it to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Like MN pointed out earlier. The pac shortwaves and progressive flow is going to cause huge swings out in time with timing and placement. Euro is very active. First sw is light overrunning event with some mix in the DC burbs. 1-3" verbatim and some ice. The trailing fantasy shortwave is money but d9-10 is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We've seen a lot of these in real life over the years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Like MN pointed out earlier. The pac shortwaves and progressive flow is going to cause huge swings out in time with timing and placement. Euro is very active. First sw is light overrunning event with some mix in the DC burbs. 1-3" verbatim and some ice. The trailing fantasy shortwave is money but d9-10 is what it is. Is the trailing s/w you are talking about after day 9 and 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Is the trailing s/w you are talking about after day 9 and 10? D9-10 is a classic MA snowstorm setup. But in progressive flow it's just an iteration of what's possible. I will say that the LR is shaping up to be very active. We were staring at a storm killing medicine ball a few short days ago. Now that the depth of the cold has backed off, we are getting more aligned with the war zone. Idgaf about single digit lows. I care about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Is the trailing s/w you are talking about after day 9 and 10? It's beautiful... cold smoke. Easy 1'+ as depicted. Too bad these things come and go from run to run, but we've clearly got a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Remember yesterdays 240hr look? WHy would anyone take today's seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's beautiful... cold smoke. Easy 1'+ as depicted. Too bad these things come and go from run to run, but we've clearly got a lot of potential. Yea, that run was a beaut at the end. There were similar solutions embedded in the GEFS. It's nice to get a clean pass to the south. We had them in jan/feb 14-15 even with no blocking. As long as the progressive flow is active and cold highs keep dropping out of Canada, we'll probably end up on the winning side of something. One of my rules with tracking this stuff is it normally takes 3 legit chances to score 1 storm. The euro has 3 legit chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: The fact that the models have pushed the warm out so decisively for Christmas vs. what they advertised a few days ago gives me hope. But then we scored on our first snow thanks to the SE ridge flexing its muscles, so there's that too in the back of my mind (it's OK though, it's bald on that part of my head too!) This has also been traversing the gap between my ears as well. Cold has been on the move in the right direction. Prob a few days till we sort next week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just what you love to see... a Boston screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Remember yesterdays 240hr look? WHy would anyone take today's seriously? https://i.imgur.com/qIQOGIB.gif No, I doubt any of us take anything seriously in the sense that any exact solution is locked in. However, the premise of pac shortwaves undercutting cold hp is something I do take seriously. There's a lot of support for that general progression after Christmas. Inside of that progression is that any type of storm is possible. Including complete disasters... Just keep presenting chances and odds catch up to us. One and done setups are the worst. We've recently had several winters with the same type of progression that the models are now showing. Hard to not at least be a little excited for some legit potential right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Remember yesterdays 240hr look? WHy would anyone take today's seriously? https://i.imgur.com/qIQOGIB.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yesterday the GFS and Euro were very similar in the long range. Today they are completely different at 500 in the long range. Who knows whats gonna happen at this point. We are back to a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 For those who can see the individual members, any support for that Day 9-10 deal in last night’s EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: For those who can see the individual members, any support for that Day 9-10 deal in last night’s EPS? Yes, quite a bit for 9-10 leads. I'd have to waste time checking all of them but there were plenty of snow solutions through d10 and even more beyond that. Last night's EPS was the best ens run of the year by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Just what you love to see... a Boston screwjob. For sure, but don't taunt Mother Nature. Let it happen first, then we can celebrate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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