December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[showmethesnow]

Totally different look upstairs. Ops are going to be basically useless at range for awhile. Probably wouldn't take them too seriously until inside 5 days and more likely 3 days.

[Porsche]

Low going into WV at 192

[clskinsfan]

Clear cad signature at 186. Ice storm incoming?

[MN Transplant]

If someone can go loop the 500 pattern in the North Pacific and tell me that they think that the models can pick out the ejecting waves in that pattern from 5+ days out, I'd say they were crazy.  It is chaotic out there.

[yoda]

lol at GFS.  1048 H in Quebec and SLP decides to push it out

[Bob Chill]

GFS keeps the real arctic boundary pretty far north of us the whole time. First model I've seen to come in so weak with the cold after the holiday. That's probably the most important thing to track over the next few days. If models trend away from bringing in the real deal cold until later then it sets us up for some problems. 

[Negnao]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

lol at GFS.  1048 H in Quebec and SLP decides to push it out

Guess the teleconnections matter. No blocking on this run. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

If someone can go loop the 500 pattern in the North Pacific and tell me that they think that the models can pick out the ejecting waves in that pattern from 5+ days out, I'd say they were crazy.  It is chaotic out there.

Which is probably why this storm on the 12z runs is 48hrs+ faster than previously.

[nj2va]

500 looks completely different than 6z and 0z at the panels that really matter (when the storm is developing/heading east).  6z and 0z had semblances of a 50/50 but 12z scoots that east ahead of the storm.  

[Bob Chill]

Watch the white stripe. You can see how far the GFS backed off on the arctic boundary from previous runs. 

[Heisy]

The 12z CMC & GFS have lost that bib -EPO block which is the reason for the changes in the LR today

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

500 looks completely different than 6z and 0z at the panels that really matter (when the storm is developing/heading east).  6z and 0z had semblances of a 50/50 but 12z scoots that east ahead of the storm.  

Outside of perfect timing, a 50/50 low doesn't do much good when it is a vortex moving through the 50-50 region. It works for us when it gets stuck under a block and hangs around for a while. We got no blocking, so there is really nothing to prevent a low from hauling azz up through the Canadian Maritimes and past GL.

[WhiteoutWX]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS keeps the real arctic boundary pretty far north of us the whole time. First model I've seen to come in so weak with the cold after the holiday. That's probably the most important thing to track over the next few days. If models trend away from bringing in the real deal cold until later then it sets us up for some problems. 

Earlier runs had the PV in Canada pushing much further south which kept confluence and pushed cold further south initially. That feature is weaker, further north, and more transient now which allows for the less than ideal look later on. Unfortunately I’d have to say that without blocking this type of scenario may be more likely. I think our best bet is a weaker wave rather than the super amped solutions. Otherwise it will take perfect timing. And we all know how hard that is to get to work out. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Watch the white stripe. You can see how far the GFS backed off on the arctic boundary from previous runs. 

Its the cold after the cold...the storm after the storm. Just one more rainer then we get our snow. Delayed not denied. All that stuff.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

Earlier runs had the PV in Canada pushing much further south which kept confluence and pushed cold further south initially. That feature is weaker, further north, and more transient now which allows for the less than ideal look later on. Unfortunately I’d had to say that without blocking this type of scenario may be more likely. I think our best bet is a weaker wave rather than the super amped solutions. Otherwise it will take perfect timing. And we all know how hard that is to get to work out. 

Progressive patterns are frustrating. No 2 ways around that. The big jump to a shallow solution with the cold could just be blip. Ensembles paint a much different picture during the same period where the gfs looks weak as a kitten. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Progressive patterns are frustrating. No 2 ways around that. The big jump to a shallow solution with the cold could just be blip. Ensembles paint a much different picture during the same period where the gfs looks weak as a kitten. 

Ensembles usually change with the operational. 2 bucks says the 12Z back off too with the cold. If not 12z run then 18z or 0z should the operational keep the look.

No two ways around it. So far the uber cold has NOT come to fruition yet this met winter despite all the models and their ensembles showing it.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles usually change with the operational. 2 bucks says the 12Z back off too with the cold. If not 12z run then 18z or 0z should the operational keep the look.

No two ways around it. So far the uber cold has NOT come to fruition yet this met winter despite all the models and their ensembles showing it.

I don't disagree with models overdoing it at range. That's been going on as long as I've been on the boards. However, the magnitude of the shift on the gfs is suspect. We'll know soon enough but I don't think pushing the arctic boundary to the Catskills by the 27th is where this is all going. Possible of course. My money is on a colder verification for the 27th (storm or no storm)

 

ETA: I also think an all snow event (assuming we have one) is probably the least likely outcome. The euro yesterday showed a -epo/ao/nao and 50/50 combo. It looked great on paper but being realistic...that is very unlikely. 

My early odds on the post Christmas event:

10% all snow

40% mixed event

20% all rain

30% no event at all

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't disagree with models overdoing it at range. That's been going on as long as I've been on the boards. However, the magnitude of the shift on the gfs is suspect. We'll know soon enough but I don't think pushing the arctic boundary to the Catskills by the 27th is where this is all going. Possible of course. My money is on a colder verification for the 27th (storm or no storm)

The fact that the models have pushed the warm out so decisively for Christmas vs. what they advertised a few days ago gives me hope. But then we scored on our first snow thanks to the SE ridge flexing its muscles, so there's that too in the back of my mind (it's OK though, it's bald on that part of my head too!)

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Progressive patterns are frustrating. No 2 ways around that. The big jump to a shallow solution with the cold could just be blip. Ensembles paint a much different picture during the same period where the gfs looks weak as a kitten. 

This is definitely more like 2014 and 2015 when our threats would only solidify in the short range.  But I am pretty optimistic overall right now.  First of all we have done OK so far for the most part.  Nothing epic but December isnt a big snow month for us.  And in generally we have scored some snow from all of our chances.  That in itself is a good sign.  We say a lot how good years show themselves early that it just "wants to snow" and we have that going for us so far.  Things also seem to be trending pretty good in the mid range for us this year.  Warm ups arent dragging on and on and taking forever to break down.  We have had either the AO or EPO helping out for most of the cold season and that seems to want to continue at least the next 10 days. 

My pattern specific thoughts are simple... as i said a few days ago, too amplified is not very good.  We would do better with waves along the boundary not big amped up systems. That said one way to get amplified to work is if either a transient 50/50 feature were to present itself or we just luck out with timing.  Neither of those is impossible.  Another way amped up works is if we get a crazy cold push aimed just to our west then something digs in and goes nuts along the coast.  Then it can cut due north all it wants and it would only screw over NYC and New England.  January 1966 type storm comes to mind there.  But rooting against over amped isnt a bad thing either.  Most of those snow events in 2014, except the Feb 14 one, were pretty weak sause surface systems.  Just waves along frontal boundaries.  Its not the worst way to get snow.  Often we are needing phasing and amped up systems and it does'nt come together, this time I am fine rooting for a simple wave to ride along the arctic boundary.  Your poing about the location of that boundary is a good one, definitely don't want to see that trend north but one op run isnt going to spook me.  I am also ok if we end up with lots of mixed events.  If its cold and we can keep some snowcover, extended periods of snowcover are almost more appealing to me then piling up a big total from one storm then having it all melt away fast.  Sometimes a 4-6" event with lots of sleet mixed in can do wonders to keeping snowcover, that crap wont melt easy.  

The mood swings are going to be crazy if people start putting too much into details past 72 hours this year, but I have no reason to panic at all about where we are right now.  I feel pretty good.  

[HighStakes]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles usually change with the operational. 2 bucks says the 12Z back off too with the cold. If not 12z run then 18z or 0z should the operational keep the look.

No two ways around it. So far the uber cold has NOT come to fruition yet this met winter despite all the models and their ensembles showing it.

Well on a positive note this isn't last winter. There is still a lot on the table. If I had to guess I would say the second shot around new years will deliver the serious cold. I still would lean colder after Christmas than what gfs just showed.

The only time the models didn't overdo the cold was Feb. 2015. So yes it's very frustrating that the cold hardly ever verifies to the severity the models often show.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles usually change with the operational. 2 bucks says the 12Z back off too with the cold. If not 12z run then 18z or 0z should the operational keep the look.

No two ways around it. So far the uber cold has NOT come to fruition yet this met winter despite all the models and their ensembles showing it.

Ever since the upgrade the GEFS tends to swing lock step with the op way too much.  Its to the point that I tend to use the last several runs of the GEFS and kind of average them together in my mind to get a more effective feel then to use any one ensemble run.  Its a shame they don't fix that.  But they jump around way too much run to run right now.  

[mitchnick]

To my eyes, the GEFS DO look better with the cold than the operational. Let's hope I'm wrong with my concern.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

To my eyes, the GEFS DO look better with the cold than the operational. Let's hope I'm wrong with my concern.

GEFS backed off on the big southern push to the gulf but it also sped up the pac shortwave entering the pac NW. That's all connected it seems. MSLP plots support a west track though. It's blurry but there. 

[WxUSAF]

Yeah, not surprisingly it looks like the GEFS members that have amped lows are cutters and they cut really far west.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS backed off on the big southern push to the gulf but it also sped up the pac shortwave entering the pac NW. That's all connected it seems. MSLP plots support a west track though. It's blurry but there. 

GEFS looks pretty good to me. Much colder then the OP and seems to get moisture here quicker compared to the 6z GEFS. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

GEFS backed off on the big southern push to the gulf but it also sped up the pac shortwave entering the pac NW. That's all connected it seems. MSLP plots support a west track though. It's blurry but there. 

I saw the west track, but temps remained cold. I guess that just comes from so many members. Personally, I still don't like using the ensembles. Maybe because I don't know how to use them properly all the time, but the operational is the most skilled of them all in each model suite. I prefer to go with the operational and use the ensembles for confirmation. If several runs go by and the operational doesn't budge, then I usually don't buy the ensembles.

[North Balti Zen]

My focus on the models will be on the strength and push of the cold air. Get that in place and I will take our chances. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

My focus on the models will be on the strength and push of the cold air. Get that in place and I will take our chances. 

The push of the cold air is based on the 500mb maps. Surface cold is good for zr (yuk) or sleet, at best (yay).

[Negnao]

For what it's worth, nice jump on the snowfall mean on the gefs. Just trying to stay positive. 

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The push of the cold air is based on the 500mb maps. Surface cold is good for zr (yuk) or sleet, at best (yay).

I will take frozen over wet, snow over frozen.

Get me deep cold air and impending moisture, and that's a hand worth playing.