North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Maybe break off the Christmas threat into a short range thread? As for the longer range threat, that’s where my heart lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty big hit on the euro. Good round of snow before mix. Gold cad leading in but waa wins. Primary into wv. This is a wnwxluvr special solution. He loves these. Yep. These are the types events where we win with elevation. Although the upcoming setup is really good for the entire subforum. The 6Z GFS is showing the potential for a monster coastal right while the MJO is in phase 8. It makes sense in that regard at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pattern really shuts down quick after Christmas. Welcome to La Nina. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 One thing to keep in the front of your mind about the late next week deal is there is no real Atl blocking. The runs that keep it under us either have a transient block or a timed 50/50 but nothing really shows a classic stable block. This greatly ups the risk of a mixed event (assuming we get precip). It would be wrong to set expectations as an easy all snow event. That's not what it looks like at all. All rain is still possible (and shows up on some ensembles) but with a good antecendent air mass it shouldn't be all rain unless it takes forever to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Maybe break off the Christmas threat into a short range thread? As for the longer range threat, that’s where my heart lies. Yeah, with trackable events after Xmas, let’s do that. Start it up friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: DT, who is not the best typist and speller (he has dyslexia) wrote a headline that said ALERT...ALERT...ALEET. And every since then, it's been parodied. whose parrot died? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: whose parrot died? http://www.thefreedictionary.com/parodied Its the correct usage of the word We probably should split up the threats into two threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, yoda said: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/parodied Its the correct usage of the word We probably should split up the threats into two threads intended as a simple play on words, not vocabulary nazi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: In the upper left hand corner, find your user name and click on it - one of the options below that is "ignored users" - click that and you can add people there and it will hide their posts. Even easier: hover your cursor over the poster's name, and a menu will pop up that includes "ignore user". Use it liberally. It really improves the experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Someone create a xmas thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing to keep in the front of your mind about the late next week deal is there is no real Atl blocking. The runs that keep it under us either have a transient block or a timed 50/50 but nothing really shows a classic stable block. This greatly ups the risk of a mixed event (assuming we get precip). It would be wrong to set expectations as an easy all snow event. That's not what it looks like at all. All rain is still possible (and shows up on some ensembles) but with a good antecendent air mass it shouldn't be all rain unless it takes forever to get going. It's interesting that the Euro ens show all kinds of solutions. The quicker the late nest week system gets here, the better the chances of frozen or a mix. As you note the really slow moving ensemble runs have the low cut so far west that it would allow rain as they look to take forever to get hear. My gut feeling is that the odds of an all snow event are quite a bit lower than a mix event but speculating this early is kind of blowing smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty big hit on the euro. Good round of snow before mix. Gold cad leading in but waa wins. Primary into wv. This is a wnwxluvr special solution. He loves these. Funny that somebody called this the Chill storm because in 2012 that's what we called another storm that was exactly what you just described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, with trackable events after Xmas, let’s do that. Start it up friend! agree that mods can be a little more strict in the new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Funny that somebody called this the Chill storm because in 2012 that's what we called another storm that was exactly what you just described. There was a storm in 2012?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, usedtobe said: It's interesting that the Euro ens show all kinds of solutions. The quicker the late nest week system gets here, the better the chances of frozen or a mix. As you note the really slow moving ensemble runs have the low cut so far west that it would allow rain as they look to take forever to get hear. My gut feeling is that the odds of an all snow event are quite a bit lower than a mix event but speculating this early is kind of blowing smoke. Yea, we're getting ahead of ourselves because ops are spitting out some monster solutions inside of 10 days. They are pretty and all but trusting anything other than the general idea is not the way to go. My guess is we get some sore of frozen event out of it. Ensembles are really cold after christmas and the MSLP panels show good hp position for CAD. All we can do is pass time right now and hopefully things make more sense in about 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Someone create a xmas thread... done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: There was a storm in 2012?! Yea, a storm cut west with a marginal antecendent airmass. My area sucked but areas to the west did pretty well. 12-13 was kind to the western zone but an epic disaster for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 34 minutes ago, mappy said: agree that mods can be a little more strict in the new thread? Word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Word. I didn't know you were so hip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I like the look of the 12z GGEM at hr 162... 1048 HP in N ND and 1005mb SLP in TX Panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I like the look of the 12z GGEM at hr 162... 1048 HP in N ND and 1005mb SLP in TX Panhandle It's a rainstorm. Cold running away as precip moves in. West track. That kind of solution is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Canadian has the after Christmas storm cutting east of Chicago. Yikes. Only good news is the Canadian has been horrendous in the long range this winter. Spoke too soon. East of Chicago but still a cutter not that it matters this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS looking more Euro like at 156, dropped the idea of the big ridge in the NW/upper midwest....maybe we can get a Euro like solution for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Okay... so does 12z GFS at 168 look okay or is that going to cut as well? Its got a 1049 H just over the NE MN border in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Okay... so does 12z GFS at 168 look okay or is that going to cut as well? Its got a 1049 H just over the NE MN border in Canada Look at the 500, doesn't look as amped to me as the CMC so I wouldn't think it would cut as badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: No way that's a cutter . A mix bag is my guess Gfs will suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Geez... Dual 1050+ H's in Canada should lock in the cold air and confluence at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1050 HP just north of the lakes. It cant cut into that can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Tired of real cold never making it here as advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS came in really weak with the cold after christmas. Not enough wiggle room with heights/temps down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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