Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gefs look a lot better than the op for Xmas. More precip compared to last run. Overrunnng looks really good on the gefs. The entire period after the holiday looks good. Seems pretty stormy across the south into the MA. Loop the gefs 24 hour precip panels and it shows up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I wonder what kind of a snowstorm it would take to get four or five Bob Chill Faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This shows it too. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Would be perfect storm if it happened. Cold before storm (as in very cold), sun angle affects nothing. Everything that falls would stick, and most likely be very fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Who's staying up to see the Euro show 3-4' of snow? In all seriousness, these next 6 days are gonna suck. Back and forth (unless the models really catch on to this D9 and keep it), and if we get no snow, it'll hurt a ton, especially realizing that last year sucked. I'm still excited, but also cautious. Thinks go back and forth, and this far out, it could easily fail. With that said, I like how the Canadian, GEPS, GFS, GEFS, And EPS have strong signals towards the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro still has an event for Christmas. We remain on the South side of it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Xmas is over, give it up. All hands on deck for Dec 28-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro still has an event for Christmas. We remain on the South side of it though Oooh....so close! It is gonna sting a bit if folks just north of us get a white Christmas, but...if something comes out of the setup to follow...that may make up for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Pretty big hit on the euro. Good round of snow before mix. Gold cad leading in but waa wins. Primary into wv. This is a wnwxluvr special solution. He loves these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty big hit on the euro. Good round of snow before mix. Gold cad leading in but waa wins. Primary into wv. This is a wnwxluvr special solution. He loves these. As far as we know what CAD does, it would probably still overperform if this scenario were to occur. 4-6" event and then ice storm would be pretty awesome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty big hit on the euro. Good round of snow before mix. Gold cad leading in but waa wins. Primary into wv. This is a wnwxluvr special solution. He loves these. We can still do pretty well even if primary crashes into WV... esp if there is a decent transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty big hit on the euro. Good round of snow before mix. Gold cad leading in but waa wins. Primary into wv. This is a wnwxluvr special solution. He loves these. 50/50 low is a little to far north but it doesn't budge from 168-216. Good news further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 All storms show the event. We just need CAD to win and we're golden. Still 8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, yoda said: We can still do pretty well even if primary crashes into W VA Yea, it's a great run. Nw burbs never mix. Jumps the coast overhead. Antecedent airmass is good. Thsee types of setups work well here. Nice to not have to worry much about a west or east track if the cold is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Another shortwave entering the pac nw at the end with a good ul pattern to repeat. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Another shortwave entering the pac nw at the end with a good ul pattern to repeat. Lol Maybe that's one of those weeks where we get constantly dumped on the entire week. Something like a smaller version of Feb 3rd-10th 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 All three globals showed basically the same thing tonight. Gefs and Geps showed it too. Don't see that often. We're either getting played for suckers or this is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 That cold air after the storm is mighty impressive. Possibly lower single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 DT believes the setup we saw on the 0z Euro to not happen. He believes a farther South, or all snow event for Us as it looks like he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Not about the 27th-30th potential event, but the EPS looks better for the chances of a Christmas event. Not our main focus right now, but could happen maybe Compared to 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Pretty strong signal from EPS about the potential event Snow mean is upped 2.5" for DC from 28th-31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 High pressure then gradually builds from the west on the 24th, but the Euro shows a low forming along the front over the Carolinas potentially bringing light precip to the area on Christmas Eve with rain east and some snow ovr the mtns. QPF does look light while GEFS show no precip. Turning sharply colder on Christmas Day with the latest Euro trending faster similar to the GFS with the arrival of the Arctic air. Cold and dry from Christmas Day into the middle of next week as Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS looks good for something to ride up the coast around Christmas. I guess moisture is the issue. Definitely cold bias past 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6G run looks as if it's trying to bring that low pressure back to the coast around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6G run looks as if it's trying to bring that low pressure back to the coast around Christmas. Yeah, coast of Lake Erie. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6z GFS= X1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: 6z GFS= X1000 Is that good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Is that good or bad? Great if you like fantasy storms. Has a 987 of the coast of NC and a 963 on Long Island... all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Great if you like fantasy storms. Has a 987 of the coast of NC and a 963 on Long Island... all snow I do like fantasy storms but I didn’t like what he did on the 28th. I prefer the overrunning with the broad trough of the north kind of situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Actually I’ve noticed that when the ALEET comes out things go south or north depending on your preference of something going the wrong way...Could be a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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