eurojosh Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: The cold is coming in even quicker on the 0z GFS Too quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Congrats winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 if only this could have been slowed down Friday/Saturday event 12-18 hrs and could have given arctic boundary a little more time to advance..... maybe we should ask the Euro to help out.....its good at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Anyone upset about tonight's 00z GFS IMO shouldn't be. We got the cold there, now all we need is the s/w out west to trend stronger as it progresses East. It is almost a X-mas miracle in itself that we were able to get the cold entrenched in the first place. I am actually in awe at how much it has trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’d rather cold/dry than 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: I’d rather cold/dry than 75. This. Better than 40 and rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Meanwhile, check out that bad boy off the PAC coast ready to undercut all that cold eventually. Bob's overrunning HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 ugh. There is no reason this pattern doesn't deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Congrats winchester and a few others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 CMC on the other hand offers a novel solution- a front thump that comes very close to bringing the MA a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yea, cmc introduces a completey new progression. Blip or things really are far from resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: CMC on the other hand offers a novel solution- a front thump that comes very close to bringing the MA a wet snow. Followed by the Euro's snow train, or a lighter version of it, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Well those who wanted cold and dry for Christmas should be happy.I dunno....the gfs op could be right.....it could be on to something. Who knows? Not surprisingly the gefs took the side of the more progressive NS at 18z. However, the EPS and especially the GEPS have different thoughts. I will hold judgment on ops runs irt to Christmas threat until tomorrow afternoon/night at earliest. Too many important changes on ops in medium range this season already...EPS has been most consistent with this system imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and a few others... No cigar here in PG, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 this only looks like this because of how the gfs120 sees, but it's a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wow, really weird CMC run, it slows down the first storm so much where THAT becomes the X-mas storm. It has it snowing x-mas eve morning for parts of NE MD and S PA. It then has an AWESOME overrunning snow & ice event day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and a few others... I'll take this. .25 inch of snow. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'll just leave this here for Ji ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Another op with a juiced stj...this is very intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, ATreglown said: No cigar here in PG, VA yeah i know, but at 90 hrs out, it still isnt outside the realm of possibilities. We cant wish/will storms to happen, but the trends have been rather consistant, and without the SE ridge to body block to cold....just something to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 this only looks like this because of how the gfs120 sees, but it's a snowstorm. This is actually textbook GFS 108-132 hr range losing the storm stuff. I would ignore the gfs op for right now, it is virtually by itself. Maybe keep an eye looking over your shoulder at it, but it is not worth losing sleep over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Man, at this point I could care less what this X-mas thing does if the models are sniffing out any idea on the pattern afterward. They are almost all showing an epic battle between historic HP and a juiced STJ...I'll be just as happy x-mas morning if it is cold and dry but I'm waiting for the 12z GFS run to show 2 feet for all of us day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Man, at this point I could care less what this X-mas thing does if the models are sniffing out any idea on the pattern afterward. They are almost all showing an epic battle between historic HP and a juiced STJ...I'll be just as happy x-mas morning if it is cold and dry but I'm waiting for the 12z GFS run to show 2 feet for all of us day 4 Maybe an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Well isnt that special.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 You gotta love that look on the GFS @ 180 hrs. The STJ is starting to warm up @ 183 hours now, so much cold air and HP across the country to work with. Once in every few years of so you get a pattern, such as 2009-10, where the pattern is so good it almost can't fail. I don't want to jinx anything, but there is so much HP and cold air to work with I am as close to I ever could be in locking in some kind of major winter storm across the CONUS for the 28-31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Canadian would be a massive storm. It's just starting to jump the coast after dumping with the overrunning. 1044hp feeding in. The ccb would be sick in the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Canadian would be a massive storm. It's just starting to jump the coast after dumping with the overrunning. 1044hp feeding in. The ccb would be sick in the setup. 24 hours of light-moderate precip, temps in the teens, insane CAD. Wish Canadian went over 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Hey Bob, touching back on something you mentioned earlier today comparing the future setup on the EURO to PDII...The 00z GFS tonight looks very similar @H5 so far @ 204 hours....Verbatim I could see a ton of overrunning moisture head NE while a wave or 2 from the Northern Jet reinforced the cold before the main shortwave comes out of the West. GFS tonight is showing something like that happening maybe. You can see that huge cold dome of confluence draped across the US/Canadian border. Obviously there will be shortwaves embedded in that flow which could help reinforce cold/HP before everything comes out from the SW of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Canadian would be a massive storm. It's just starting to jump the coast after dumping with the overrunning. 1044hp feeding in. The ccb would be sick in the setup. Shame it doesnt go out another 24 hrs cause there's your HECS maps to save for posterity sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs near identical to the euro @ h5 d8. Lol. Another monster solution incoming for someone....the big ones are sniffed out early.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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