December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[BristowWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

When you read about 1899, your jaw just drops. That pattern was exceptional. I hope I’m able to see something like that in my (adult) lifetime.

Was it the strong HP out west.  We got that coming up.  Just need a LP tucked into the coast.  Bet they had a -NAO and 50/50

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When you read about 1899, your jaw just drops. That pattern was exceptional. I hope I’m able to see something like that in my (adult) lifetime.

Buckle up for next week

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When you read about 1899, your jaw just drops. That pattern was exceptional. I hope I’m able to see something like that in my (adult) lifetime.

Knowing my luck, I'll be in college out of state when that happens

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We need a pattern change. It's warm pattern right now, and models do better when pattern now is going to be future. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

We need a pattern change. It's warm pattern right now, and models do better when pattern now is going to be future. 

Isn’t that what we’re tracking?  

[87storms]

it's always going to be difficult getting a frigid snowstorm here with the warm atlantic sitting next to us.  anything in the 20s is an acceptable feat.

[WVclimo]

24 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Just want to see one storm this winter where DC and WS each get between 6-10”. Nice SW to NE stripe. Oh and with cold antecedent conditions, near frozen ground. 

Whats the largest deform band anyone can remember? Not intensity necessarily but geographic coverage. 

January 25, 2000 had a pretty big comma head

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

January 25, 2000 had a pretty big comma head

one of the few storms where there were bands coming straight off the atlantic.  93 was similar in that regard.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When you read about 1899, your jaw just drops. That pattern was exceptional. I hope I’m able to see something like that in my (adult) lifetime.

Some years ago I was able to track down daily records for Baltimore/BWI for that month- Feb 5-15, 1899 is absolutely mindblowing and makes 2010 look like a joke. I encourage everyone to look it up.

[Sparky]

Gimme a redo of Jan. 66 blizzard.  Not a ton of snow, 12-18 inches overall depending on location, but the winds and the cold would be awesome to revisit.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

All of the potential is on the front side of this wave, along the cold front and on the dropping polar vortex. 

[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Just want to see one storm this winter where DC and WS each get between 6-10”. Nice SW to NE stripe. Oh and with cold antecedent conditions, near frozen ground. 

Whats the largest deform band anyone can remember? Not intensity necessarily but geographic coverage. 

deformation band on the blizz of 16' was a good one, as i remember the little bit of mix and then the petrifying lull that went to light snow/sleet and within an hour it got cranking again, and far exceeded expectation in my area.  I watched the radar fill in and kept staring in amazement as i didnt extpect it.  I remember it snowing into the evening with great rates that were not modeled as such.  

found the loop.  enjoy

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The storm Dec 27-30 has +NAO and is probably warm unless the front end of this pattern delivers. 

[pasnownut]

Just for poops n giggles, look at 12k NAM at 75 thru end of run, and toggle back to 18z.  Trend of flatter/ less ridging in front seems to be continuing to happen sooner.  Not sure where this goes but wouldnt it be funny if we could score some love on Fri/Sat to set the Christmas table....

just a thought and while its an outside curve ball, we've seen wild enough swings of late to make me wonder.....

carry on.

 

[PhineasC]

30 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

deformation band on the blizz of 16' was a good one, as i remember the little bit of mix and then the petrifying lull that went to light snow/sleet and within an hour it got cranking again, and far exceeded expectation in my area.  I watched the radar fill in and kept staring in amazement as i didnt extpect it.  I remember it snowing into the evening with great rates that were not modeled as such.  

found the loop.  enjoy

 

What a beautiful radar.

[RDM]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When you read about 1899, your jaw just drops. That pattern was exceptional. I hope I’m able to see something like that in my (adult) lifetime.

   Grew up in Ohio just North of Dayton and experienced the Blizzard of 78 that raked the mid-west, especially Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.  I've lived in 5 different countries overseas and experienced some pretty extreme weather from 3 meter snows in the Alps, even deeper snows in the Japanese Alps, to torrential monsoon rains in India and Thailand (we simply don't get rain like that here), to Typhoons in Japan.  Seen a lot in my 6 decades... As much as I love extreme weather and marvel at what Mother Nature can muster I hope to never experience something like the Blizzard of 78 again. 

   Many stories have been told about 78, so I'll try to not get too long winded here, but it was something to behold.  I was 16 at the time and old enough to develop lasting memories that remain vivid today.  While the snow was significant (about 14" in our area), it was the flash freeze, intense pressure drop (popped your ears a lot), routine thunder snow and the wind that I recall the most.  Wow, that relentless wind...  It shook our house like thunder for hours.  In excess of 60 relentlessly with higher gusts.  Even within the town limits it created truly whiteout conditions that I remember the most.  You could literally not see your feet at times and would get vertigo outside by loosing all orientation with the horizon.  Sometimes you didn't know you were falling until your head hit the snow.

   Many lost their lives and in our area and many new lives were brought into the world prematurely because of the extreme pressure drop (one of the most intense recorded in N. America, but forgive me, don't recall what it was).  My dad was one of the first paramedics in the state of Ohio and he delivered multiple babies in the back of our town's 4x4 rescue truck out in the country.  They did loops through the countryside getting through slowly led by an big Case articulating front end loader with a 16 foot blade.  Had to relay the patients from their snowed in farm houses to the rescue truck with snowmobiles. 

  To the extent possible everyone helped each other out.  We had a family of 6 plus an area farmer stay with us for nearly 2 weeks.  No power across vast areas and many rural areas were inaccessible for 2 weeks until the airport snow blowers and ginormous snow plows from Wright Patterson AFB and Dayton Airport went out into the countryside and opened things up.  Normal DOT snow plows were often unable to put a dent in the drifts. 

   Things in our small town of 5500 were about about to get serious as people started running of food before they got the roads open.  Big snows are one thing.  Roads closed for weeks is another when you're out of power, the fuel oil tank is about empty and your pantry is about bare.  Untold life stock was lost, even with the help of hay and alfalfa drops from National Guard helicopters.  The impact on the economy was tremendous.  Had to attend high school longer that next summer because of missing so many days.  

   Never been in another situation where civil order about broke down.  Everyone held it together, but things get tense quick when you're hungry.  A few more days without access to wholesale food deliveries and it would have gotten interesting.  MECS, SECS, HECS or BECS?  Bring it on.  Another Blizzard of 78?  I will respectfully pass.  Thanks....

MODS - feel free to move to Banter if you wish. 

[Heisy]

Since we're talking HECS's....I'll take March 4-6 2001 in an alternate universe where the ULL from Canada retrograded far enough South to capture the main low in time.  Never forget. 

It wasn't until the next year when I started to look at wx models and have a grasp on what was going on (I still don't)...However, I used to love how the EURO only came out @ 12z and I'd sneak into the library at my high school during a "bathroom break" and read wright-weather to see the update on what the EURO was showing. Ji was the best during that event. Also the original "Noreaster" I am not sure if he still posts on here or anywhere. 

Anyway, to add some on-topic content. If you look @ the 00z NAM @ 84 hours I do like the strength of front coming through...Also if you look out west that shortwave, which eventually comes the x-mas wave, looks fairly strong. The 18z GFS kind of rushed that wave compared to the 12z. Need some separation there. 

People always talk about "threading the needle", but this x-mas storm is a prime example of one. 

 

[das]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

2003 has the coldest temp while snowing imby.  It stayed between 10 - 11 F all day .

Mine too. Temp dropped thru the storm and as the cold conveyor belt started as energy transferred to the coast and pressures dropped. It bottomed out at 9°F and stayed there for hours on stiff N winds of 10-15mph all afternoon in moderate to heavy snow. My favorite event, even surpassing Jan ‘16 even though it produced 5.6” less snow. 

[BristowWx]

0z coming up. Good luck to us.  It's not like we have to wait very long now to see where things are headed.  

[clskinsfan]

I will take the blizzard of 16 for 2000 Alex. 40 inches from one storm was ridiculous. 2003 is a close second with 36 inches and BITTER cold.

The 3k seems a little more progressive with the front on this run. I hate trying to extrapolate so I could be wrong.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, das said:

Mine too. Temp dropped thru the storm and as the cold conveyor belt started as energy transferred to the coast and pressures dropped. It bottomed out at 9°F and stayed there for hours on stiff N winds of 10-15mph all afternoon in moderate to heavy snow. My favorite event, even surpassing Jan ‘16 even though it produced 5.6” less snow. 

I was living in germantown in 03. Incredible event. The overrunning piece produced big and then after a lull the coastal was cranking and cold powder was dumping. Great dendrites in that part of the storm. With the wind it had that cold smoke look to everything. It was like dry fluffy snow falling in a fog of crystals.

The fact that our area can get storms like that is awesome. Colder climates just to the west of the apps rarely get them. We may not be big climo snow numbers but when we get a good one, it's something special. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, das said:

Mine too. Temp dropped thru the storm and as the cold conveyor belt started as energy transferred to the coast and pressures dropped. It bottomed out at 9°F and stayed there for hours on stiff N winds of 10-15mph all afternoon in moderate to heavy snow. My favorite event, even surpassing Jan ‘16 even though it produced 5.6” less snow. 

Only really remember a couple storms in my lifetime (don't remember 09-10 winter fully), but I'd say my favorites have to be Jan 2011, Feb 2014, the mid-late March 2015 event, and Blizzard of 2016. 2011 event I remember just checking weather.com and looking outside to see when the changeover happened. Glad everyone was at home. I remember going sledding for about a half week afterwards. Fun times. We just got a dog before the Feb 2014 event, and she's a tiny dachshund. We had to shovel a path for her in the snow. Fun times. The feb 2015 event was a perfect example of CAD. Extended snow led to a powdery 6-10" of snow before a turnover to ice/rain. Blizzard of 2016 is obvious, but it was the first event I tracked, and it's how I discovered this forum/Tropicaltidbits

[Interstate]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I was living in germantown in 03. Incredible event. The overrunning piece produced big and then after a lull the coastal was cranking and cold powder was dumping. Great dendrites in that part of the storm. With the wind it had that cold smoke look to everything. It was like dry fluffy snow falling in a fog of crystals.

The fact that our area can get storms like that is awesome. Colder climates just to the west of the apps rarely get them. We may not be big climo snow numbers but when we get a good one, it's something special. 

Yep... I remember the governor of MD telling anyone on the road after 6 PM would be arrested.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I want this cold to slice through Texas. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

What are you folks' thoughts on the ridging now showing up over Western Greenland on the EPS for Christmas Eve/Day as well as the ridge bridge from epo across N Pole into western nao region on the GEFS? I know it isnt a perfect -nao look and the entire epo->ao-->nao ridge bridge is sort of a unicorn so-to-speak but Im curious to hear others' thoughts on this.

[Interstate]

The cold is coming in even quicker on the 0z GFS

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What are you folks' thoughts on the ridging now showing up over Western Greenland on the EPS for Christmas Eve/Day as well as the ridge bridge from epo across N Pole into western nao region on the GEFS? I know it isnt a perfect -nao look and the entire epo->ao-->nao ridge bridge is sort of a unicorn so-to-speak but Im curious to hear others' thoughts on this.

Most blizzards had ridge bridge. 6z GFS earlier today had nice arctic pattern with lows moving south from Greenland (click to animate)


 

[BristowWx]

I don't believe the trough will return on this run to give us snow on the 25th...just early take on it

[pasnownut]

i think it fair to say that the SE trend of the cold continues on the GFS.  Look at 90hr and you'll see the R/S line into NW Pa when at 18z it was through central Oh.  Just a hunch but this one aint dead yet.  I realize its a long shot, but trends are not to be denied.  Its a long way to go, but we've got nothing else to do until next week.

Nut  

[Interstate]

Well those who wanted cold and dry for Christmas should be happy.