pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Some of you people panic too damn much. It’s Tuesday. It’s one run of an op. We’re still at the stage where we’re feeling out the envelope of possibilities. Amen.. Watching model runs 4x/day just ain’t fr everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Panic? I thought I clicked on the annual sarcasm contest. Oooops. ... Lol. That’s funny right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Juiced STJ look again....love it Great to see it on both the Gfs and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Juiced STJ look again....love it I only saw 500’s and missed these at noon. That’s not a dry looking deal. I stand corrected. SWFE’s are one of my fav and most memorable winter weather patterns. Love long duration stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Rain snow in my zone forecast for Sunday night/Monday. Looks good to me for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 But the GEFS looks much drier to me in the mean compared to last 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I only saw 500’s and missed these at noon. That’s not a dry looking deal. I stand corrected. SWFE’s are one of my fav and most memorable winter weather patterns. Love long duration stuff It's a long ways away but it keeps showing up over and over. Ops and ensembles have had it for at least the last 4-6 runs. Big impact events rarely sneak up. Models will show many iterations but the same general idea locks in. Another couple days of this and it's probably legit one way or another. It's a very good setup for and they don't come around all that often either. Just have to hope it happens overhead and not next door. I mentioned 2-3 days ago that everything looks ripe for an epic ice storm somewhere in the middle of the country. I want snow of course but there could be an historic event shaping up for somebody before the year is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Missed out on Happy hour GFS chatter. I personally like being on the North side of the storm the GFS op shows. Much more room for improvement, and less worrying as compared to being on the South side. I think for all of us, 30s and dry is better than 40s/50s and rain. Still room for improvement, and if the biases we've seen so far this season hold up, the storm will trend NW and stronger within 3 days. Looking at individual GEFS members, some show the storm too West, and some show storm OTS. Still at least 3 days until consensus should be better. I think the new point of interest should be the 27th-30th, since there's a fairly strong signal between the ops and the ensembles that there will be precip in the area. I think we would all trade a sloppy Christmas snow to have a potential big snow event during the 27th-30th. Also, kind of surprised nobody posted the EPS control. Would be ultimate troll for everyone near or North of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 This sums it up in one visual. If this is right...somewhere between the green and brown is going to lose power for a week....or month....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big impact events rarely sneak up. Models will show many iterations but the same general idea locks in. Agreed. It is usually the case for the big ones. You get pretty good agreement from the models at long lead times. And the 18Z GFS is exactly what I was concerned about during the 12Z run. Too much of a good thing. Of course we have no idea how strong any vort will be that forms on the boundary. The stronger the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. It is usually the case for the big ones. You get pretty good agreement from the models at long lead times. And the 18Z GFS is exactly what I was concerned about during the 12Z run. Too much of a good thing. Of course we have no idea how strong any vort will be that forms on the boundary. The stronger the better. Better than hoping that cold air gets in just in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs looking even colder long range thru 288...geez The pattern does a full reload/repeat. Eps is similar and super cold at the end. Coldest mean highs on the eps are d14-15. I'm starting to not care as much about the holiday deal. If we get into a progressive flow/cold reload pattern it really could be a heater like we saw in Jan/Feb 14. Might not be all snow and it may surprise people again that it can sleet or rain 2 days after single digit lows...but I'm thinking the two weeks after christmas may be what defines this winter. Fail and it's a disaster of epic proportions or bullseye and we talk about it for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs looking even colder long range thru 288...geez The week between Christmas and New Years has to be one of the coldest we have seen in a long time based on the GEFS. Just bitter Jebwalk cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a long ways away but it keeps showing up over and over. Ops and ensembles have had it for at least the last 4-6 runs. Big impact events rarely sneak up. Models will show many iterations but the same general idea locks in. Another couple days of this and it's probably legit one way or another. It's a very good setup for and they don't come around all that often either. Just have to hope it happens overhead and not next door. I mentioned 2-3 days ago that everything looks ripe for an epic ice storm somewhere in the middle of the country. I want snow of course but there could be an historic event shaping up for somebody before the year is over. Agreed man. I was trying to get a feel for where the goalposts were going to be and 500’s were showing a little split flow action but nowhere near the indicator that you showed. Yeah they are rare and I hope the PJ holds strong so that we all can cash in on frozen varieties and not that 12” concrete block of ZR. (I saw your post ;)) Love snow n sleet. Just not a big freezing rain fan....unless it snows in top. Then we’re good. I won’t be too picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed man. I was trying to get a feel for where the goalposts were going to be and 500’s were showing a little split flow action but nowhere near the indicator that you showed. Yeah they are rare and I hope the PJ holds strong so that we all can cash in on frozen varieties and not that 12” concrete block of ZR. (I saw your post ;)) Love snow n sleet. Just not a big freezing rain fan....unless it snows in top. Then we’re good. I won’t be too picky. better to have it the other way around. makes a good base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed man. I was trying to get a feel for where the goalposts were going to be and 500’s were showing a little split flow action but nowhere near the indicator that you showed. Yeah they are rare and I hope the PJ holds strong so that we all can cash in on frozen varieties and not that 12” concrete block of ZR. (I saw your post ;)) Love snow n sleet. Just not a big freezing rain fan....unless it snows in top. Then we’re good. I won’t be too picky. I agree with you. Any accumulating snow and I'm happy. Sleet is ok, but a big ice storm would be remembered for many years, event though ice isn't as close to as good as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The pattern does a full reload/repeat. Eps is similar and super cold at the end. Coldest mean highs on the eps are d14-15. I'm starting to not care as much about the holiday deal. If we get into a progressive flow/cold reload pattern it really could be a heater like we saw in Jan/Feb 14. Might not be all snow and it may surprise people again that it can sleet or rain 2 days after single digit lows...but I'm thinking the two weeks after christmas may be what defines this winter. Fail and it's a disaster of epic proportions or bullseye and we talk about it for years. Yup- it feels like the window starting around the 28th is a push a lot of chips to the middle of the table situation. But I am one who chases the big ones on the models - so way more interested in that period too than trying for mood flakes on the 25th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Yup- it feels like the window starting around the 28th is a push a lot of chips to the middle of the table situation. But I am one who chases the big ones on the models - so way more interested in that period too than trying for mood flakes on the 25th... We can have both. I mean the 25th won’t impact the 28th. Pulling for both. Why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: better to have it the other way around. makes a good base. This is true but you already have a base..... i look at the cams everyday Hope you are well man. Been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Folks are nuts if they don’t want to be cold and waiting for precip to move NW. Especially on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: This is true but you already have a base..... i look at the cams everyday Hope you are well man. Been a while. we're doing better now. the wife had some health issues this fall, but all looks good now. I haven't checked the cams, hopefully we have a good season. we need it after the last 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Folks are nuts if they don’t want to be cold and waiting for precip to move NW. Especially on Christmas. Totally agree. Bob said it..it’s the holy grail for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: we're doing better now. the wife had some health issues this fall, but all looks good now. I haven't checked the cams, hopefully we have a good season. we need it after the last 2 Sorry to hear but glad for the good news. Yeah it’s been horrid in northern pa. Rode way more down here than up at cabin in last 2 seasons (and that was 3 times total). Looking rather favorable for many locals in the coming weeks. Just hoping the AO and god forbid any semblance of NAO show up as we all are off to a nice start. Would be nice to pad some totals for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’ve been reading some useful resources this evening online about analyzing weather patterns at the 500 mb level; my searches came across this paper written by NWS Missouri re: a checklist for winter weather. While I’m not a fan of checklists per se when forecasting conditions, there’s some helpful information in here regarding forecasting freezing drizzle vs snow (12/15 comes to mind), forecasting snow, and forecasting where S/S+ may set up. I’ve bookmarked to refer back to for our next tracking threat inside 4 days. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter_checklist_paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I would love to have experienced this true epic blizzard . Temps 0-10 F while snowing. Maybe this is the year . 1899 https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 Wasn't that when DC had it's all time low temperature of -15? If that has to be the initial temperature to have heavy snow at 0-10F, that would be very tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I remember a -60 at Tower, MN I think in my life time...now that’s cold Edit: 1996. Not sure we ever see that again. Must have been perfect conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Correct Cobalt Would be a dream scenario to many though. I would trade away a whole winter for a 2-3 foot storm like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I would love to have experienced this true epic blizzard . Temps 0-10 F while snowing. Maybe this is the year . 1899 https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 Just a fyi....most of the alltime record lows set in 1899 still stand but some were broken in 1994 * I agree...I feel like I have experienced a lot of historic winter events in my 41 years....The one that I have always thought would be amazing would be a true blizzard with temps in the single digits. I recall being jealous of New England in 2015? I think...remember a storm they had with temps around 0f... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Would be a dream scenario to many though. I would trade away a whole winter for a 2-3 foot storm like that You pretty much got that in January 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just want to see one storm this winter where DC and WS each get between 6-10”. Nice SW to NE stripe. Oh and with cold antecedent conditions, near frozen ground. Whats the largest deform band anyone can remember? Not intensity necessarily but geographic coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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