BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Cold air is pressing in at very similar rate as it did on 12z run. More so. My take and it looks dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Might get pushed out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: More so. My take Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Trough is broader than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Too much of a good thing:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 She's gone. Cold dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Trough is broader than last run Also weaker vort rounding the base this time. I'd prefer to have wiggle room to back into something than press forward like we've been hoping for all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Bub-bye Nah, I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The holy grail remains hidden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The SER is so weak on current modeling, that our one-day "torch" is now just mid to upper 50's for most. Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 We have had every possible solution to screw us from Christmas snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Those kooky models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Something in between the eps and 18z gfs could work lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Ji said: We have had every possible solution to screw us from Christmas snow Yup...now it's just too progressive. Even when we win we lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The GFS sped up the secondary wave a bit (the x-mas s/w)...not enough room to amplify and develop a low....wouldn't worry it'll be different in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yup...now it's just too progressive. Even when we win we lose Trust me, being on the cold side of things @ 5 day leads is a win. May not feel like it yet but when this whole thing starts backing its way towards the west you'll be glad there's some extra real estate to put up for sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 XMAS cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 By the time Christmas gets here, we will have had our cool down and we'll be on the back side of the surface High starting to thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 If we get legit precip..its probably cause se ridge is stronger and we risk rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Trough is sharper this run. Not good for snow chances. My opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I’m just glad the 70 degree solutions seem off the table at this point. Snow would be great but please no flip-flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Some of you people panic too damn much. It’s Tuesday. It’s one run of an op. We’re still at the stage where we’re feeling out the envelope of possibilities. It feels Better to see blue over our backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 No panic. Just doing pbp of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Some of you people panic too damn much. It’s Tuesday. It’s one run of an op. We’re still at the stage where we’re feeling out the envelope of possibilities. Panic? I thought I clicked on the annual sarcasm contest. Oooops. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Trust me, being on the cold side of things @ 5 day leads is a win. May not feel like it yet but when this whole thing starts backing its way towards the west you'll be glad there's some extra real estate to put up for sale. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: No panic. Just doing pbp of this run. Your bedside manner needs some work bro...you can feel the angst and disappointment in every word lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Your bedside manner needs some work bro...you can feel the angst and disappointment in every word lol Sorry. It looks great and a lot better than a day or two ago. It's an op run so things will change. One central theme is the front clearing faster and we avoid a warm holiday. Sure the trough looks more broad after 25th but the op runs will struggle and the Ensembles will provide a more accurate account of what might happen. The models are struggling in this pattern to nail down specifics. Having the cold gives us chances that won't be identified at long leads. We have to take it one step at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Juiced STJ look again....love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Got to love ninos. This is amazing btw https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121918&fh=234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Juiced STJ look again....love it Definitely looks like what could be a substantial SWFE brewing in the December 28th-30th timeframe, liking the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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