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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

No shortage of tracking within the day 6 - 15 Eps . Man...this looks more and more like a good couple weeks of fun tracking.  Many members with sprawling high pressure above . 

Didn't think it was possible but the eps even colder down the line. If nothing else, ponds and lakes will be frozen. 

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

They'd be feet thick by mid Jan  then.lol. Many ponds here already have ice on them.  Today will thaw some but still.  This is getting super interesting to say the least .

We rarely got these opportunities last Winter, so I'm getting excited. We should at least have 1 or 2 week events, but the signal of that 28th-30th event is pretty large. I also like how this is happening during Winter Break for me. No distractions at or after School. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

They'd be feet thick by mid Jan  then.lol. Many ponds here already have ice on them.  Today will thaw some but still.  This is getting super interesting to say the least .

Yeah definitely. This is the most I've been excited about since Feb. 2015. Just has the feel that something extreme "could" happen.

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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS strongly disagrees with the op for Christmas. That sucks. lol

 

ETA: I should be more specific. It sped up the cold making it here but no bueno on frozen precip. 

Eps mean you mean? There are probably some nasty individual members screwing the mean

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

We rarely got these opportunities last Winter, so I'm getting excited. We should at least have 1 or 2 week events, but the signal of that 28th-30th event is pretty large. I also like how this is happening during Winter Break for me. No distractions at or after School. 

I’m just going to let it happen.  Sit back and enjoy.  All I wanted was a cold Christmas.  The rest is gravy on the goose.  I can focus every day on the models and food.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe but it's been there for at least 4 runs now and not moving in time. Probably will end up being a precip event. Who gets what and where are questions that will remain open for a week. 

We've got the cold, we just need the precip to be at the right place at the right time. I'm happy with 1-3" event, even a change over event. All snow, or mainly snow without rain is icing on the cake

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LWX afternoon AFD re weekend/Christmas:

Precipitation will spread throughout the CWA late Friday night
into Saturday with mild temperatures ahead of the front.
Guidance has come into better agreement with the front by
stalling it near our CWA Saturday night into Sunday, keeping a
chance for precipitation. Then a fast-moving wave of low
pressure tracks northeast through the front and over us as it
intensifies Sunday into Monday. With this scenario, colder air
arrives earlier and precipitation is more likely Sunday and into
Monday. Cold air advection could allow for some snow for parts
of the CWA Sunday into Monday but it is still uncertain as to
where. Any travelers need to monitor closely the forecast for
Sunday night into Monday to be aware of any hazardous road
conditions.

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5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

That SER keeps getting shunted east/weakened prior to our cutter's arrival along with the western ridge shifting east. The cold might be faster than 12z was.

Not sure if thats better or worse.  Snow on the 25th is so thread the needle I am not even counting on it or expecting to see it.

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