December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

A car-topper for NW areas.  Not what I was hopping for to be honest.

It's 6 days out. Still plenty of time. Look how much the models are jumping around from run to run. Then consider how much we've seen them change on our 3 storms so far just inside of 72 hours. I'm hoping for a big surprise, but I'll be plenty content with temps in the 30's and ambiance snow falling on Christmas with a better pattern lurking right around the corner.

[mitchnick]

Euro is a jole. Sorry huggers.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro is a jole. Sorry huggers.

cant argue with what it showed lol....the map a few days ago showed 70 degrees in DC for christmas day

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro has higher heights over the west and Greenland than the GFS at 192hrs.  Much better looking pattern IMO.

I would not look much past 120... look how much the Euro has flipped flopped in the last 4 runs alone

[cae]

Not a lot of daylight between the GEFS and GEPS now.  The Canadian ensembles are still slightly slower with the cold, but the ensemble mean low pressure is southeast of the op. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

cant argue with what it showed lol....the map a few days ago showed 70 degrees in DC for christmas day

It surely has shown that it is not perfect.  

Stated by several here numerous times, this year is a renegade of sorts, and is hard to latch onto in not only longer range, but as we are seeing, medium range as well.

Hug the model that shows you what you want, until you dont see it anymore...then look for another model...

[Bob Chill]

Helluva overrunning event unfolding at the end of the euro. Check out this moisture tap....heading right into a CAD/cold dome in our parts. 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

It surely has shown that it is not perfect.  

Stated by several here numerous times, this year is a renegade of sorts, and is hard to latch onto in not only longer range, but as we are seeing, medium range as well.

Hug the model that shows you what you want, until you dont see it anymore...then look for another model...

That last line...I wish real life was like that

[Amped]

Interesting fantasy storm. 

[poolz1]

To go along with Bob's post...

We can only hope to tracking something like this

[Bob Chill]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Sure is .. and a ridge bridge of strong H's

Damn, just checked H5. This is a legit fantasy block. It's the -epo/ao/nao combo. lol. I didn't think it was possible. 

 

[RedSky]

Give credit where credit is due quantumuniversal reality Chuck is getting Xmas cold right lol

 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Helluva overrunning event unfolding at the end of the euro. Check out this moisture tap....heading right into a CAD/cold dome in our parts. 

Fantasy storm indeed

Euro had something similar last run, so maybe it could be something of interest in the near future

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Fantasy storm indeed

Euro had something similar last run, so maybe it could be something of interest in the near future

I'd be good with 70 and rain on Christmas for an event like this. Full blown STJ connection colliding head on with an arctic HP. Absolute monster depiction right there. For a lot more than just the MA too. Epic run. 

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, just checked H5. This is a legit fantasy block. It's the -epo/ao/nao combo. lol. I didn't think it was possible. 

 

Bob, point of clarification for a weenie like myself.  With a ridge in the SE, its directing the moisture plume right towards the OH Valley/MA/NE?  And the kinks in the heights in the SW over Baja suggest there’s vorts/disturbances in the STJ?  Thanks

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Bob, point of clarification for a weenie like myself.  With a ridge in the SE, its directing the moisture plume right towards the OH Valley/MA/NE?  And the kinks in the heights in the SW over Baja suggest there’s vorts/disturbances in the STJ?  Thanks

It's a full on STJ assault. Moisture coming all the way from the Pac south of baja. 

 

It would be a 1-2 punch similar to PDII. Long duration overunning and then probably a miller B type of deal as SLP tries to fight north just west of the apps and jumps the coast. These are the types of fantasy events that happen with a massive fantasy block and arctic HP nosing down. It's a dream run that will be gone in 12 hours but this is definitely the type of event you look for with an UL setup like the euro just spit out. 

 

ETA: it's not really a SE ridge as much as confluence from compressed flow. A true battle of airmasses. It's a cold pattern even with the oranges to our south. Look at the HP placement. 

 

ETA #2: It's not a classic miller b either. It's a hybrid setup kinda like Feb 2010

[RedSky]

I would sacrifice the remainder of winter on the alter of fire for the euro long range setup that is epicosity

 

[BristowWx]

Otherwise, the main story is the pattern shift over the holiday
weekend, possibly involving a bit of wintry weather Christmas
Eve into Christmas Day. In a rather rare occurrence, the ECMWF
has shifted towards the GFS with the progression of the frontal
boundary across our region, bringing the colder air in faster.
We still expect a very mild Saturday just ahead of the cold
front, but the risk of rain is also high. GFS and ECMWF still
show some timing differences with the actual frontal passage,
with the GFS much earlier in the day than the ECMWF, but both
models show significant cooling Sunday and Monday versus the
previous runs, in which the ECMWF stalled the front and then
moved it back north, allowing Sunday and especially Christmas to
stay warm. Most guidance still shows a wave of low pressure
riding north along the front late Christmas Eve into Christmas
Day, which is where the forecast gets really tricky. While there
may be a dry period early Sunday, later in the day as the wave
rides north, rain is likely to overspread the region, and with
the cold air continuing to advect into the region, some snow
could occur on the northwestern side of the low, which is where
our region lies. While we have lowered temperatures in this new
forecast compared to the previous one, they may still be too
high. At present, we have confined snow to western Maryland and
eastern West Virginia, but its not out of the question that a
significant risk of snow could reach some DC/Baltimore suburbs,
given the cooling trend with guidance.

One saving grace is that this wave should be pretty fast
moving, and its pretty much out of here by midday Christmas Day,
at least on most current guidance. Behind this system looks
windy and MUCH colder... probably the coldest weather of the
season so far (seems like we`ve said that a lot this December).

As mentioned previously, while we are not currently forecasting
snow in the metro, anyone with travel plans on Christmas Eve and
Christmas Day should continue to check back to see if a colder
trend has become more prevalent, resulting in an increased risk
of wintry weather closer to the I-95 corridor.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a full on STJ assault. Moisture coming all the way from the Pac south of baja. 

 

It would be a 1-2 punch similar to PDII. Long duration overunning and then probably a miller B type of deal as SLP tries to fight north just west of the apps and jumps the coast. These are the types of fantasy events that happen with a massive fantasy block and arctic HP nosing down. It's a dream run that will be gone in 12 hours but this is definitely the type of event you look for with an UL setup like the euro just spit out. 

 

ETA: it's not really a SE ridge as much as confluence from compressed flow. A true battle of airmasses. It's a cold pattern even with the oranges to our south. Look at the HP placement. 

 

ETA #2: It's not a classic miller b either. It's a hybrid setup kinda like Feb 2010

Oh hai der

Excellent posts from everyone in here.  12z EURO looks excellent through the entire run... now if only it could just lock it in and hold it

[BristowWx]

I thought that LWX discussion was just so festive and jolly it was worth posting.  

[nj2va]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a full on STJ assault. Moisture coming all the way from the Pac south of baja. 

 

It would be a 1-2 punch similar to PDII. Long duration overunning and then probably a miller B type of deal as SLP tries to fight north just west of the apps and jumps the coast. These are the types of fantasy events that happen with a massive fantasy block and arctic HP nosing down. It's a dream run that will be gone in 12 hours but this is definitely the type of event you look for with an UL setup like the euro just spit out. 

 

ETA: it's not really a SE ridge as much as confluence from compressed flow. A true battle of airmasses. It's a cold pattern even with the oranges to our south. Look at the HP placement. 

 

ETA #2: It's not a classic miller b either. It's a hybrid setup kinda like Feb 2010

Thanks, you more eloquently described the ‘ridge’ better than me.  That HP bridge north of us is a thing of beauty.  We’d certainly end ‘17 with a bang, as depicted.  You did mention yesterday we’d start seeing some fantasy snow post Christmas given the airmass and H pressures...EPS will be interesting (not just for the Christmas Day potential).  

[Amped]

 

Very poorly stacked elongated over running event like february 1994.

[cae]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a full on STJ assault. Moisture coming all the way from the Pac south of baja. 

 

It's a day-10 op run, so all usual caveats apply of course.  But there appears to be some support as the GFS and GGEM both have a similar feature.

Not bad agreement for day-10 op runs.  If this keeps up, it will be a fun 10 days of tracking.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro 700mb moisture transport day 10..wow

Your image isn't showing up

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It embedded when I previewed it but when it posted it didn't 

Maybe someone w Wxbell can post 

Was this the image you were trying to post?

 

[Bob Chill]

GEFS shows similar stuff in the d10 range but more than a few rain or snow to rain solutions. Euro is great because it has a nasty 50/50, strong confluence, and HL blocking. The trifecta. Take away any of those and the cold moves out while the precip moves in. I'm skeptical that blocking happens like the euro. Haven't had it all year. Not sure why the upcoming week would be any different. 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Was this the image you were trying to post?

 

@showmethesnow showed this potential the other day with the split flow and convergence zone setting up in the MA...you can clearly see that in yoda’s image.  

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS shows similar stuff in the d10 range but more than a few rain or snow to rain solutions. Euro is great because it has a nasty 50/50, strong confluence, and HL blocking. The trifecta. Take away any of those and the cold moves out while the precip moves in. I'm skeptical that blocking happens like the euro. Haven't had it all year. Not sure why the upcoming week would be any different. 

Because that would be too perfect, right? Lol And if we need all three, you know darn good and well what the models are gonna be jumping around before we could wind up in a warm puddle. Perhaps this is more cynicsm than science, but this seems like a scenario where things look frozen and then trend warmer in the last 72 hours! But this is a year of surprises, so...ya never know!

[das]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt that the euro made a move towards the GFS

The LWX AFD gave me a chuckle:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm advection starts in earnest on Friday as the trough
approaches from the west and the surface high moves out to sea.
Temps will rise, however possibly not early enough to prevent
any freezing rain should some rain move in early in the day
across locations west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. GEFS
probabilities continue to indicate a significant chance of at
least a little freezing rain early Friday in these areas, so
have maintained morning chance of freezing rain in forecast
database, along with mention in HWO. However, its quite
possible that precipitation does not arrive until later in the
day, by which point temps should have risen above freezing,
eliminating any icing threat.

Otherwise, the main story is the pattern shift over the holiday
weekend, possibly involving a bit of wintry weather Christmas
Eve into Christmas Day. In a rather rare occurrence, the ECMWF
has shifted towards the GFS with the progression of the frontal
boundary across our region, bringing the colder air in faster.

[das]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It would be a 1-2 punch similar to PDII. Long duration overunning and then probably a miller B type of deal as SLP tries to fight north just west of the apps and jumps the coast. These are the types of fantasy events that happen with a massive fantasy block and arctic HP nosing down. It's a dream run that will be gone in 12 hours but this is definitely the type of event you look for with an UL setup like the euro just spit out. 

ETA: it's not really a SE ridge as much as confluence from compressed flow. A true battle of airmasses. It's a cold pattern even with the oranges to our south. Look at the HP placement. 

ETA #2: It's not a classic miller b either. It's a hybrid setup kinda like Feb 2010

Bolded is exactly what I thought.  2003 jumped right out at me.