Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anything can happen but not sure what their basing it on. Past ninas that started wintery then flipped warm and stayed warm did so by xmas. Beyond that some of the best analogs to the current pattern had long duration cold periods. I'm sure there are good examples of flips warm too but the evidence certainly isn't stacked that way. I won't buy any long range prediction until it shows up inside of 2 weeks. It's not that kind of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Significant changes on the EURO thru 102 hours. The Initial front Day 5 looks to be stronger, which could allow for stronger cold push and less ridge for the followup x-mas wave. Or squash everything. Razor right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That stronger storm on the 23rd puts a quasi 50/50 low in position for the followup wave which is forming @ 129 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 It may not result in a White X-mas, but the 12z 500mb pattern is much more favorable than the previous EURO runs regardless and is a big step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Ji said: nothing worse than icez being the only person doing analysis in the euro run Usually a good sign it shows nothing of note but the 10-day looks promising for the most epic pattern of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I havent seen the euro yet but it seems like the past 5-7 days..the euro has been trying to catch up to the GFS. When the GFS showed the big SE ridge first...the euro waited a while and then showed it...then when the GFS starting see the cold front push through...the euro waited a while and now is trying to show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017121912&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I love you guys, look @ the EURO yourself! SOrry I have Stormvista and it might come out a tad before everyone else's products I'm not sure. It actually gives me an inch or so up here NW of Philly, but I'm rooting for you guys because if it snows down there with this thing I'll probably do well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: I havent seen the euro yet but it seems like the past 5-7 days..the euro has been trying to catch up to the GFS. When the GFS showed the big SE ridge first...the euro waited a while and then showed it...then when the GFS starting see the cold front push through...the euro waited a while and now is trying to show it No doubt that the euro made a move towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Welp, euro gives us some conversational snow on Christmas day. Very close to a legit light event. Great run consider what it looked like 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017121912&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=510 compare that to 12z euro from yesterday. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017121812&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=166 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Welp, euro gives us some conversational snow on Christmas day. Very close to a legit light event. Great run consider what it looked like 12 hours ago. now we got 5 days to turn this into a 3-6 inch miracle DT apologizing white christmas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: No doubt that the euro made a move towards the GFS Definitely trending colder on the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 A car-topper for NW areas. Not what I was hopping for to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro did some of the same things early as the GFS with backing off on both the WAR and SER in the short range. Less resistance for the trough to progress so a colder/faster solution. It started in the short range. You could see it by hr72. This is getting really interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: compare that to 12z euro from yesterday. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017121812&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=166 I think they downgraded the Euro... it is jumping around more than the NAM...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 EURO is grudgingly moving toward the GFS. Give it time, he'll get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017121912&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=510 125-150 jaunt SE. Shall we call that a big step? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Welp, euro gives us some conversational snow on Christmas day. Very close to a legit light event. Great run consider what it looked like 12 hours ago. Oh boy now we are talking. Just clouds and snow flurries...temps upper 30s. No issue with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 If you look at the last 4 runs of the Euro at 168... it is comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 IMO it is all about the low on the 23rd, the stronger & farther E you get that thing the better the cold push, and then the X-mas shortwave and where it begins to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Oh boy now we are talking. Just clouds and snow flurries...temps upper 30s. No issue with that It's very close to a legit light event here. A little faster with the front and we're in business. There is room to improve quite a bit off this run too. No doubt in my mind the EPS makes the same jump. Will be interesting to see how much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: EURO is grudgingly moving toward the GFS. Give it time, he'll get there. It's your new avatar I just know it. That dog is pure gold....golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Thats a funny looking block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Interstate said: If you look at the last 4 runs of the Euro at 168... it is comical. You can say this about any op every single run 365 days a year. 120 and under is the most useful range for an op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I like how the euro is not driving the arctic high down into the plains...should be a better setup toward NYE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: What.. 48 hours ago Euro had me at 65 on Xmas and now below freezing . I like when Bob gets excited . We just saw basically the same solution from both the GFS and Euro...and we're approaching a range where you can start to believe it. Ensembles should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You can say this about any op every single run 365 days a year. 120 and under is the most useful range for an op. also, Euro bias of holding back in SW was part of it IMO. Now playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro has higher heights over the west and Greenland than the GFS at 192hrs. Much better looking pattern IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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