CAPE Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: No, WE haven't. Be gentle with the condescending noob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE has a weak 1015mb SLP in W NC at 120 Yeah, this might be the best look of any of the globals for snow. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the main difference between the GFS and GGEM is that the GFS holds back some southern energy, and that's what gives us snow. Looks like the UKIE might be doing something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE has a weak 1015mb SLP in W NC at 120 144 its 1009mb SLP in the Gulf of Maine... so can't really tell exact path, nor if there is precip since meteocentre stops at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 144 its 1009mb SLP in the Gulf of Maine... so can't really tell exact path, nor if there is precip since meteocentre stops at 72 Considering the 0z ukie was a dumpster fire we'll call it a win and just fill in the precip with 2-4" of snow and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Guarantee the models are still not showing us anything close to the final look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The euro is just waking up grabbing a pint smoking a fag And getting ready to kick some Yankee ass How do you figure... it has been trending towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Mean slp placement looks good and it shaved a couple mb's from 6z Shield to the south shifted SE from 6z as well so that's net + for front placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Guarantee the models are still not showing us anything close to the final look. the only consensus so far is that there is none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Earthlight ( John ) and the Eastward progression of the EPO ridge. Hmm, is that the cause for the model mayhem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 dry pattern Models are trending toward -PNA after block cuts off north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 29 minutes ago, Interstate said: How do you figure... it has been trending towards the GFS Yeah I know. But we have had the rug pulled out from under us inside 7 days so I am preparing. The big turnaround scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: dry pattern Models are trending toward -PNA after block cuts off north. And I’m trending towards my weight goal every morning after I go potty. Sorry but there ARE enough signals to suggest that dry is not a trend. Yes we may be variable but enough evidence to support an active pattern is more likely. Let’s just get the cold here, then we can figure out how to keep it. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 11 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I think when the Stratosphere is warm we have a lot of precip 11 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: For some reason it seems like a wet pattern 18 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: dry pattern Models are trending toward -PNA after block cuts off north. Ok, this is getting old real quick. If this isn't a clear sign you just want to troll then I don't know what to tell you. Every 6 hours its a different Chuck making posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: The "ignore user" function is a wonderful tool. i agree but part of being a minor league moderator and not full fledged means I gotta read all posts to keep an eye on things. Therefore I have to read the crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Hard to tell without temps, but looks like ukie gives us all dusting-2” on Sunday? Or light rain showers depending. Front is through though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Top analog year I can find is DJF 13-14. Jan 94 is close but this mean plot looks a heck of a lot like the GEFS 5 day mean coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Top analog year I can find is DJF 13-14. Jan 94 is close but this mean plot looks a heck of a lot like the GEFS 5 day mean coming up Doesnt ooze "huge" potential, but active is fine IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 GEFS improved again...but it's a razor blade in these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 For it to count as a White Christmas, we need M1.0" on the ground at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Top analog year I can find is DJF 13-14. Jan 94 is close but this mean plot looks a heck of a lot like the GEFS 5 day mean coming up Yeah. hard not to look at that and think fairly positively about the period around New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Doesnt ooze "huge" potential, but active is fine IMO. Nothing has shown any atlantic help so progressive pattern it is. I don't think suppression will be a problem in general. It's lack of blocking so anything that amps will have a fairly easy time cutting west of us...into a cold dome of HP...foot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Top analog year I can find is DJF 13-14. Jan 94 is close but this mean plot looks a heck of a lot like the GEFS 5 day mean coming up Interestingly enough the pattern for the 94 winter established itself during Christmas week 93. Of course we know it locked in. Question is how long can we lock this current one coming up. A solid 3 week run would be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Interestingly enough the pattern for the 94 winter established itself during Christmas week 93. Of course we know it locked in. Question is how long can we lock this current one coming up. A solid 3 week run would be excellent. It's a good question. EPO ridges aren't exactly the most stable feature. They can come on strong and break down just as fast. This one looks like the real deal but it's still pretty far out in time. The EPS and GEFS both close off the ridge N of AK at the end of their runs. Agree about a 3 week run. That would be pretty awesome. Maybe it rolls over into a -AO. So far this year we are winning the pac and losing the atl battles. Gotta win one to stand any chance. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing has shown any atlantic help so progressive pattern it is. I don't think suppression will be a problem in general. It's lack of blocking so anything that amps will have a fairly easy time cutting west of us...into a cold dome of HP...foot of ice Op run shows exactly your worries with a couple vorts trying to cut. Like i stated earlier, lets just get the cold here and see how the game changes once there. 2m temp anomalies on GEFS suggest that whatever falls is frozen (or will freeze). So at least we have that. For now, we need to pool all energy together to drum up this Christmas miracle....thats my focus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a good question. EPO ridges aren't exactly the most stable feature. They can come on strong and break down just as fast. This one looks like the real deal but it's still pretty far out in time. The EPS and GEFS both close off the ridge N of AK at the end of their runs. Agree about a 3 week run. That would be pretty awesome. Maybe it rolls over into a -AO. So far this year we are winning the pac and losing the atl battles. Gotta win one to stand any chance. So far so good. Many seasonal analogs point to a warm period second week of Jan ( yeah, I know, what's new, thats called a Jan thaw) , but there are some Mets that go on to say winter is over at that point with a warm Feb., followed by a torch March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro is coming in like the GFS with a flatter/sheared lead shortwave heading towards the NE. This is a good sign even if the rest of the run sucks. Another model backing down on the strength of the ridge in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Top analog year I can find is DJF 13-14. Jan 94 is close but this mean plot looks a heck of a lot like the GEFS 5 day mean coming up Nice post. In the post I had a couple weeks ago, I noted that the position of the WAR plays a (big?) factor in these patterns. It helped us with our storm on the 9th and obviously helped us in 13-14. It looks farther east on the GEFS, but seems to want to retrograde back toward us in the last few days of the run. Perhaps not coincidently, that’s when the precip panels start to light up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 500 at end of run still holds zonalish look, and yes, it would tend towards a drier pattern verbatim. Get your snow early and you should hold it. Bowlin balls are our best hope for storm ops. as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: Many seasonal analogs point to a warm period second week of Jan ( yeah, I know, what's new, thats called a Jan thaw) , but there are some Mets that go on to say winter is over at that point with a warm Feb., followed by a torch March. Anything can happen but not sure what their basing it on. Past ninas that started wintery then flipped warm and stayed warm did so by xmas. Beyond that some of the best analogs to the current pattern had long duration cold periods. I'm sure there are good examples of flips warm too but the evidence certainly isn't stacked that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Significant changes on the EURO thru 102 hours. The Initial front Day 5 looks to be stronger, which could allow for stronger cold push and less ridge for the followup x-mas wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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