SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Trough more neutral instead of very positive through 120 as well. It's a small but sig change if we want to get on the cold side faster. Kind of looks promising for Christmas at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Kind of looks promising for Christmas at 126. Probably the best run yet honestly. Much more of a way we can get snow here versus a + tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Ummm. Yeah. The GFS is a legit Christmas snowstorm for all of us basically. Even the surface is decent. The front pushes in so much faster this run. It's a be careful what you wish for for those of us out west. Could end up like every other event so far this year. East does well. West gets shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Snow breaking out at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Ummm. Yeah. The GFS is a legit Christmas snowstorm for all of us basically. 0.1" qpf and surface temps near freezing in DC (and worse to the north) isn't a legit snowstorm. However, waking up to white on Christmas morning would be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Dusting-2” for most, but I’d happily take that. Leading into the xmas storm, this run had a pretty different solution vs 6z, so nice to see that both options can snow on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 0.1" qpf and surface temps near freezing in DC (and worse to the north) isn't a legit snowstorm. However, waking up to white on Christmas morning would be fantastic. When you are sitting at the totals I am this year. An inch is legit. Especially on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: When you are sitting at the totals I am this year. An inch is legit. Especially on Christmas day. It's December 19th.... were you expecting to have 30 inches by now? We've already surpassed climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's December 19th.... were you expecting to have 30 inches by now? We've already surpassed climatology. I havent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: I havent. Yeah I'm probably around climo with approximately 2.25 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's December 19th.... were you expecting to have 30 inches by now? We've already surpassed climatology. Not everyone lives in DC my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Love that we're still in the game for something. The trends for a Christmas Miracle™ have definitely been interesting the last few days. Hopefully we continue to see options for snow be revealed. GFS was not far off something even bigger. Low gets going just slightly late. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are some flush hits in the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS was not far off something even bigger. Low gets going just slightly late. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are some flush hits in the GEFS. Wouldn't be surprised either... but if there are, I am guessing 3-6" would be top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS was not far off something even bigger. Low gets going just slightly late. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are some flush hits in the GEFS. No doubt. We can work with something like this. Those + tilt runs sucked. No weak ass + tilt trough is going to kick a big pool of warmth and SER out of the way. THIS on the other hand....is something that we can all agree looks half decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No doubt. We can work with something like this. Those + tilt runs sucked. No weak ass + tilt trough is going to kick a big pool of warmth and SER out of the way. THIS on the other hand....is something that we can all agree looks half decent... Unbelievable how in the span of 2 days the giant SW trough has morphed into a ridge. This general look just wants to happen this year. Every time models have hinted at SW troughing in the long range it has dampened and shifted eastward over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Unbelievable how in the span of 2 days the giant SW trough has morphed into a ridge. This general look just wants to happen this year. Every time models have hinted at SW troughing in the long range it has dampened and shifted eastward over time. Weird year. No doubt there. This is a tricky pattern flip too. Progressive flow after the cold gets here will continue to wreak havoc on ops. At least this year isn't boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Fair to say that its "right where we wanna be" at this juncture. As stated, we can surely work with this, and see where it goes from here. All you southerners can have the big snow, I'm fine with a couple inches and just feeling like christmas.... Pattern looks promising to share the love next week. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The best scenario is a 4" - 6" event that accumulates on everything but the roads so folks can get where they're going. EDIT: Meh, eff the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Canadian looks primed for a nice overrunning event at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The best scenario is a 4" - 6" event that accumulates on everything but the roads so folks can get where they're going. The best scenario is always a blizzard that accumulates on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The best scenario is a 4" - 6" event that accumulates on everything but the roads so folks can get where they're going. Road accumulation or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: The best scenario is always a blizzard that accumulates on everything. Well yea that's true but I don't want to be called in on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 CMC is faster with the front and colder on Christmas again, but still no snow except for the WV crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 only 27 more runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I miss Saturday Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's December 19th.... were you expecting to have 30 inches by now? We've already surpassed climatology. No, WE haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The euro is just waking up grabbing a pint smoking a fag And getting ready to kick some Yankee ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I miss Saturday Bob The cutter after the cold drops in and leaves should take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z UKIE has a weak 1015mb SLP in W NC at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 240hr on the GFS is a good example of how models underforecast CAD. There’s a monster high to the northeast with confluence supporting it and the low level winds are off the ocean. If we this map verified verbatim, you’d see northeasterly winds near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.