December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Ji]

31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ji says he's not impressed...I'm moving on. Next

the low is in Maine dude lol....so not impressed

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the low is in Maine dude lol....so not impressed

it looks like a stalled front the lifts north into the marginally cold air.  better than 70F right.  white rain for a lot of us.  but will take it gladly.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

the low is in Maine dude lol....so not impressed

Christmas is thread the needle with the odds favoring cold after precip.  But at least we're not shut out yet. First time we've been in the game a week out in a while. 

Beyond Christmas is much less thread the needle. We're going to have some great fantasy digital snow runs over the next 10 days. It would take copious bad luck to not score anything after the cold is established. Snow topped with ice would fit the pattern well. 

[aldie 22]

Does anyone really think the timing of the cold push is done yet?

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Does anyone really think the timing of the cold push is done yet?

Not sure, but the angle of the cold definitely isn't.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Does anyone really think the timing of the cold push is done yet?

in all seriousness, my opinion is it can only push so far.  there is still an SER and its still delicate but pushing in our favor.  but to think it will just push much further seems unlikely to me.  its a squeeze play.  just my view.

[midatlanticweather]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Does anyone really think the timing of the cold push is done yet?

I would be happy with some mood flakes and clearing skies with dropping temperatures. 3 days of cloudy and rain is depressing as we head into Christmas. As we all know, cold chasing precip for a system ending as snow is usually a recipe for failure around here! We can hope for the best.

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

I would be happy with some mood flakes and clearing skies with dropping temperatures. 3 days of cloudy and rain is depressing as we head into Christmas. As we all know, cold chasing precip for a system ending as snow is usually a recipe for failure around here! We can hope for the best.

 

we really need the front to stall south of us and a little wave to form east of us..delicate...if it stalls too far south we are done..too far north and done...low too far west done for most of us...goldilocks set up is needed

[Chris78]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Christmas is thread the needle with the odds favoring cold after precip.  But at least we're not shut out yet. First time we've been in the game a week out in a while. 

Beyond Christmas is much less thread the needle. We're going to have some great fantasy digital snow runs over the next 10 days. It would take copious bad luck to not score anything after the cold is established. Snow topped with ice would fit the pattern well. 

The trends over the past 24 hours look great. Your absolutely right. It would take some bad luck not to score something after Christmas.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The trends over the past 24 hours look great. Your absolutely right. It would take some bad luck not to score something after Christmas.

Trends surely have been good over last 24 hours, but arctic cold with no SER can lead to suppression depression as everything gets squashed south.  as we all know, models often play catch up with cold. 

Its unfortunate that there are more ways for it not to snow, then there are ways for it to snow.  From the looks right now, i'd think we are are feeling pretty good/better.  While I'm optimistic, it isnt a pattern that screams snow....just cold, but we'll take our chances for sure.  Northern vorts clipping rounding the base of the arctic dome or energy riding the southern stream is fine to me.  Way way better than last couple years for sure.  Hoping we see further evolution to a pattern that wants to deliver the goods....right in our backyards...

Nut

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I would be happy with some mood flakes and clearing skies with dropping temperatures. 3 days of cloudy and rain is depressing as we head into Christmas. As we all know, cold chasing precip for a system ending as snow is usually a recipe for failure around here! We can hope for the best.

 

If we can get like a Trace recording on the local airports that'd be a win in my book...even if it snow into the 26/27th that's fine.  I'm pretty sure that I speak for many when I say, "please no 50+ on Christmas again."

[Bob Chill]

There is some good irony going on right now. With the event on the 9th we prayed and willed ridging to flex and deliver our snow. And it did. The premise was north trends are common in the short range. 

Now we're praying and willing the ridge to gtfo.  And it's trying but what about the common north trend in the short range?

[Bob Chill]

I'm surprised nobody posted the navgem and its huge flip to a favorable upper air pattern. You guys are slacking 

[poolz1]

A south trend/faster with the front and then a stronger low would be ideal.  Then we cold will it north!  

[Ralph Wiggum]

in all seriousness, my opinion is it can only push so far.  there is still an SER and its still delicate but pushing in our favor.  but to think it will just push much further seems unlikely to me.  its a squeeze play.  just my view.

Whats with the LP showing up in the upper midwest leading up to Christmas? Is this considered a kicker helping to push the trof farther East?

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Trends surely have been good over last 24 hours, but arctic cold with no SER can lead to suppression depression as everything gets squashed south.  as we all know, models often play catch up with cold. 

Its unfortunate that there are more ways for it not to snow, then there are ways for it to snow.  From the looks right now, i'd think we are are feeling pretty good/better.  While I'm optimistic, it isnt a pattern that screams snow....just cold, but we'll take our chances for sure.  Northern vorts clipping rounding the base of the arctic dome or energy riding the southern stream is fine to me.  Way way better than last couple years for sure.  Hoping we see further evolution to a pattern that wants to deliver the goods....right in our backyards...

Nut

I'll definiely take the cold first and then hope for precip. It seems we are always hoping for lower temps/ south trends 72 hours out.

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'll definiely take the cold first and then hope for precip. It seems we are always hoping for lower temps/ south trends 72 hours out.

Cant argue with that...

once cold is here, I see multiple events trying to "attack" the cold dome...and am a little suspect.  Thats all.  We'll find out in a couple days. 

AO/NAO/PNA Tellies seem to support more of an attack as we approach the New Year, but MJO looks solid 7-8-1.  That said, it looks like a window for fun will be open.  Just need to find a stick to keep it open.

Nut  

 

[showmethesnow]

Know I am going to met with a lot of boos but IMO our best snow chances and potentially bigger storm or storms for next week (Mon-Fri) come if we see the cold arrive later rather then sooner. As in very late Christmas, day after, time frame. The earlier we see that cold come in the greater our chances decrease for seeing more then just a minor snowfall. Started writing something up to explain my reasoning this morning but was really pressed for time. So I will try to get something out after the noon runs or most likely after the overnight runs, that is if anyone is interested.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Know I am going to met with a lot of boos but IMO our best snow chances and potentially bigger storm or storms for next week (Mon-Fri) come if we see the cold arrive later rather then sooner. As in very late Christmas, day after, time frame. The earlier we see that cold come in the greater our chances decrease for seeing more then just a minor snowfall. Started writing something up this morning but was really pressed for time. So I will try to get something out after the noon runs or most likely after the overnight runs, that is if anyone is interested.

Pretty much in full agreement. Other than people desperately chasing something falling on the 25th, there is no reason to really hope for that scenario when the better chance for a legit storm looks later in the week if the cold takes its time getting here. Too much cold, too soon, and too strong, looks dry  as usual.

[psuhoffman]

EPS is tightening up a bit where it thinks the boundary will be in the long range. About half keep the storm track suppressed enough that we end up on the snow side days 7-15. 26/52 have 2"+ and 12 have 6"+. Then there is another camp that seems to favor a quick arctic dump then a relax and place the storm track well to our north by the time we get any precip. That seems to be about a dozen members. The remaining 15 or so members are just cold and dry through the entire run. Not a bad breakdown for this range. Now I want to see the boundary stay south of us as it's tightens further and some of those warm and dry camp members bleed over to the snowy camp. In past patterns that produced this is about the time when we start to see that happen and the snow mean creep up a bit each run. That's been happening since 12z yesterday so that trend continuing would be a good sign. 

[smokeybandit]

I'm sure many would be happy with a midnight high type torch on Christmas day for plummeting temps and an oncoming storm.

[mattie g]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There is some good irony going on right now. With the event on the 9th we prayed and willed ridging to flex and deliver our snow. And it did. The premise was north trends are common in the short range. 

Now we're praying and willing the ridge to gtfo.  And it's trying but what about the common north trend in the short range?

We ignore it until the models show suppression, then we go all in on the north trend and will the ridge to flex just enough to bring us snow.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Know I am going to met with a lot of boos but IMO our best snow chances and potentially bigger storm or storms for next week (Mon-Fri) come if we see the cold arrive later rather then sooner. As in very late Christmas, day after, time frame. The earlier we see that cold come in the greater our chances decrease for seeing more then just a minor snowfall. Started writing something up to explain my reasoning this morning but was really pressed for time. So I will try to get something out after the noon runs or most likely after the overnight runs, that is if anyone is interested.

It depends on the cause of the early arrival but of it gets here because of the whole motherload of arctic cold dumping whole hog into the Conus then yea that's not good. That's going to squash any system and it's not a sustainable stable pattern. The PV and that kind of cold can't survive long in the mid latitudes. Typically that kind of arctic blast will then lift out and lead to a quicker relax which can allow warmth to arrive before any system gets to us.

We want to cold anchored to our northwest where it can sit and survive north of the mid latitude jets influences and so systems can traverse the boundary under it. Of course too far north and we rain. But that whole thing dumping in and it's cold dry then we warm and rain as it moves out. 

[clskinsfan]

The 6Z GFS is basically snow out here all day on Christmas day. The 2m Temps are an issue the first half of the day. But once the front pulls through we are talking flash freeze like concrete. Couldnt ask for a better Christmas present.

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS is tightening up a bit where it thinks the boundary will be in the long range. About half keep the storm track suppressed enough that we end up on the snow side days 7-15. 26/52 have 2"+ and 12 have 6"+. Then there is another camp that seems to favor a quick arctic dump then a relax and place the storm track well to our north by the time we get any precip. That seems to be about a dozen members. The remaining 15 or so members are just cold and dry through the entire run. Not a bad breakdown for this range. Now I want to see the boundary stay south of us as it's tightens further and some of those warm and dry camp members bleed over to the snowy camp. In past patterns that produced this is about the time when we start to see that happen and the snow mean creep up a bit each run. That's been happening since 12z yesterday so that trend continuing would be a good sign. 

Agreed. Comparing 12z to 0z mean temp panels, 0z bumped temps a few degrees on the 24th and shaved a few on the 25th. 

 

EPS now keying on a second shot of cold close to NYE. VERY impressive mean temsp from far away. Doesn't mean jack is locked in but for now the EPS definitely favors cold reloading vs hit and run. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. Comparing 12z to 0z mean temp panels, 0z bumped temps a few degrees on the 24th and shaved a few on the 25th. 

 

EPS now keying on a second shot of cold close to NYE. VERY impressive mean temsp from far away. Doesn't mean jack is locked in but for now the EPS definitely favors cold reloading vs hit and run. 

Good to hear.  MJO looks favorable as well and would support a reload.  Sure hope this verifies.

[Bob Chill]

Man, you guys are missing all the important stuff... JMA has snow on Christmas

[cae]

Has no one posted a 06z GFS snowfall map?  I'm just going to stare at this and imagine my White Christmas.

 

[pasnownut]

what the heck....if were breaking rules...I'm in....

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. Comparing 12z to 0z mean temp panels, 0z bumped temps a few degrees on the 24th and shaved a few on the 25th. 

 

EPS now keying on a second shot of cold close to NYE. VERY impressive mean temsp from far away. Doesn't mean jack is locked in but for now the EPS definitely favors cold reloading vs hit and run. 

This is exactly what I saw when I viewed the maps DT had on his updated pod cast. Seems like a reload around the turn of the Year.

Bob, are you seeing what DT described , as some indications of higher hieghts building over Northern Greenland and even signs of a - AO developing the end of the year?

He stated a very dry last week of the year, but maybe indications of sometihng with the next front ( and wave ) towards the end of the year.   

Certainly the MJO increases the odds of an event I would think. I read as well , there may be up to a  10 day lag for the favorable phase of the MJO lead to a snow event in our general local.