BlueDXer75 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro/GFS latch on to idea of targeting cold dump to Midwest rather than Midwest/West. Probably means colder temps for us as well Thanks for all the work you do. I work overnights and look forward to your analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, BlueDXer75 said: Thanks for all the work you do. I work overnights and look forward to your analysis No problem! I'm just a high school student with all the free time in the world because I'm on Winter Break. I'm not too scientific since I lack too much knowledge about that, but I try my best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: No problem! I'm just a high school student with all the free time in the world because I'm on Winter Break. I'm not too scientific since I lack too much knowledge about that, but I try my best Very impressive for a high school student! Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro is bone cold for Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro/GFS latch on to idea of targeting cold dump to Midwest rather than Midwest/West. Probably means colder temps for us as well 850's looks different at Hours 216 and 240. Is there some sort of s Just now, Cobalt said: Euro is bone cold for Wednesday morning 850's looks different at the end of the run. Is there something brewing in the southern states at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, BlueDXer75 said: 850's looks different at the end of the run. Is there something brewing in the southern states at that time? Weak event moving through according to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro op is floundering for Christmas day. Knocked off 20-25 degrees on the highs over the last 12 hour model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 EPS same idea. Warmer than average Christmas morning, cold by afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 EPS has signal for near New Years. don't book on it, but the mean is upped 1" from 28th-29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 0z EPS still adds 1" of precip to the mean after the 25th. Doesn't look like the best pattern for big snow events, but we can still get some light-moderate events during this I'm guessing 2 or 3 week period of cold. I like the idea of nickel and diming our way to climo snowfall, and Nina winters excel at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Before I go to sleep, just giving you the NAM's take on this Thursday's event North by a bit compared to 0z. So far the model bias has been South and weak, so if this known bias is the same, we have have a chance of this going North. Not much probably, since ground and air temps aren't the best. I'd say best case scenario (maybe 3% chance, I know this is an arbitrary number but it's a guess), of 1-3" of snow for DC, and maybe SE burbs, since those areas would have the best chance of colder air while the storm departs. A long shot, but we've gone from no snow to 2-4" in the models in mere days. You never know. Anyways, I'm gonna hit the hay. Hope these posts were informative for those who wake up and see these in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Without nitpicking at 6 days out, GEPS has joined the GEFS (which ironically has become steadier and more consistent) in signal for a coastal low on Dec 25. EPS has more of a wave. Would like to see this slp develop a little farther South/quicker on future runs but we should take this look and run all things considered. I wouldnt be surprised to see the ops toss around a fantasy run today at some point. I havent dug any further into the ens or individual members yet.....will do later when time permits. Eta: EPS mean is actually a much better slp signal just displaced West along immediate coast which is weird given the EPS had a BIG time favorable shift at h5 getting front cleared 12 hours sooner and cold air rushing in much quicker. Really good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6z says stop dreaming of a white Christmas. ..it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 What awesome potential for a dry snow blizzard on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6z says stop dreaming of a white Christmas. ..it's happeningHavent looked at 6z but when I read your post I immediately thought of Lake Placid 1980 and Al Michael's call of "Do you believe in miracles? YES!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Trending the NAO negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 To remember.. this is like a soup with all the ingredients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What awesome potential for a dry snow blizzard on the 6z GFS. Wouldn't call 2-4" a blizzard, but we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm not sure you'll ever see a blizzard at 156hr and 168hr on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wouldn't call 2-4" a blizzard, but we'll take it. What's going on mitch? How can this be? I've seen like 5 white Christmases in my lifetime. I mean with snow actually falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Legitimate arctic pattern Look at how these low's spin south from Greenland! (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What's going on mitch? How can this be? I've seen like 5 white Christmases in my lifetime. I mean with snow actually falling. Bristow, the luck of the golden retriever Avatar is with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bristow, the luck of the golden retriever Avatar is with you. I love that dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I love you 6z GFS. Don’t ever leave us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I love everyone today..until 12z..then I sink into the abyss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I love that dog Me too. I also like Chill's snowy tree avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Ji says he's not impressed...I'm moving on. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If only this were 24 out... That would be perfect if could hold off until the next day. Snow on Christmas day would really throw a wrench into my plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Snow doesn't stick to the pavement anymore so not sure why people are scared of travel. Be worried about the nut in the other car more than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Snow doesn't stick to the pavement anymore so not sure why people are scared of travel. Be worried about the nut in the other car more than snow Hey, I'm one if those nuts....I've got my rights too!!!! So get the he!! out of my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.