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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

I count 5 bad.  Is that right? 

Hard to say without seeing surface panels. I would bet some of those “bad looks” could still be icy. I only count one or two that look completely “ridged out” and roasted on the east coast.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

Hard to say without seeing surface panels. I would bet some of those “bad looks” could still be icy. I only count one or two that look completely “ridged out” and roasted on the east coast.

Good enough for me from a met.  Appreciate your insight sir.  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Haven't been able to post on this forum today, but from peeking at this thread and at the models, it looks better for sure. Hopefully the EPS is kind as well

Feel like if the op is much better the EPS might be somewhat better.  Just a hunch.

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted

I think the key here is we still don’t know how this will play out. Models are still having wild swings in the medium range. The Euro looks absolutely nothing like the GFS. We keep getting positive hints here and there but all I feel confident about is eventually the cold will make it to the east, whether that’s before or after Christmas is the big question. 

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I spoke a bit too soon. Euro does bury the trough in the SW but at the very end of run. It got there a different way. Still a good run. 

Looks like the wave the Euro dives in at the end of the run is the one the GFS tries to phase with the SW cutoff. But the outcome would be totally different obviously, because well, there is no cutoff on the Euro lol.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Looks like the wave the Euro dives in at the end of the run is the one the GFS tries to phase with the SW cutoff. But the outcome would be totally different obviously, because well, there is no cutoff on the Euro lol.

Yea, the REALLY good thing about the run is the basically continental sized cold dump into the US prior to the shortwave digging for oil. Cold HP is already well established well before d10. But like you said, we have no idea how this is going to play out in all aspects (progression, timing, etc). Just for fun, my guess is the euro would end up being a mixed event in our area. It will change in 12 hours either way. lol

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the REALLY good thing about the run is the basically continental sized cold dump into the US prior to the shortwave digging for oil. Cold HP is already well established well before d10. But like you said, we have no idea how this is going to play out in all aspects (progression, timing, etc). Just for fun, my guess is the euro would end up being a mixed event in our area. It will change in 12 hours either way. lol

I was busy. So basically the Euro agrees with the CMC's cold it appears with the GFS the outlier.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

This is gonna be a tricky one for sure.  The model swings are pretty substantial, but our possibility of getting something frozen on xmas, or within a day or two of xmas looks to be higher than normal at this point.  Going to be a very interesting week as  we narrow the range of possibilities.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

been busy today so forgive me if this has been said.  Just looking at the H5 mean progs could be decieving and indicate a more negative/warm look then they actually suggest in reality because of two factors.  This type of pattern with plenty of cold high pressure around is likely going to have cold pressing a bit more then typical into higher h5 heights.  Then there is the fact that when I look at the individual members of the ensembles some of them that go ridge crazy are very warm.  While the ones that get the boundary through we arent arctic cold, none really get us all the way into the deep arctic cold, and that is good because we would be cold/dry then.  So if we average out the runs that have the boundary south of us and the ones that are west, it gives a much warmer look at h5 then its really suggesting.  I think the boundary is likely going to be close to us.  Maybe to our north, but not by that much.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was busy. So basically the Euro agrees with the CMC's cold it appears with the GFS the outlier.

There seems to be 2 camps through d10. 12z favors option 2...lol

Option 1: Energy buries in the SW and pops a SE ridge. We don't get solidly on the cold side until everything shifts east (probably after christmas)

Option 2: A little bit of NAO ridging compresses flow and establishes a sprawling cold HP across much of the country by d8 or so. We flip cold fairly quickly all things considered

 

We can still get caught with a SE ridge down the line with option 2 (euro) but with cold hp already in place, any storm that approaches could still be of the frozen variety. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There seems to be 2 camps through d10. 12z favors option 2...lol

Option 1: Energy buries in the SW and pops a SE ridge. We don't get solidly on the cold side until everything shifts east (probably after christmas)

Option 2: A little bit of NAO ridging compresses flow and establishes a sprawling cold HP across much of the country by d8 or so. We flip cold fairly quickly all things considered

 

We can still get caught with a SE ridge down the line with option 2 (euro) but with cold hp already in place, any storm that approaches could still be of the frozen variety. 

thanks

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS solidly in option 1 still. Doh. Backed off some on the SE ridge though so a slight trend in the right direction. Overall the run says be patient and don't get excited for winter wx until after Christmas. 

Towards the end of the EPS there is a distinct trend towards getting us on the cold side. Seems like the main difference now is timing and all models are ending up in the same place by d14-15. GEFS/GEPS faster and EPS slow but pretty much the same look at the end. 

Going to take a few days before we can figure out which camp has it right. The faster solutions are inside of d10 now. If the GEFS/GEPS hold and the EPS keeps trending faster I'll feel a lot better about not being warm and/or rainy for Christmas. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I still don't see it.  Darn

That image isn't the best to describe Cold Air Damming.  Here are a few resources to help illustrate the point betteR:

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