Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 If the GFS is right, we wouldn't top freezing for almost 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: If the GFS is right, we wouldn't top freezing for almost 10 days With no snow to show for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: With no snow to show for it Focus on cold now, worry about snow later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Ggem has a 1070 high. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 00z GGEM is 1070 H barreling into the N Plains at 198 and 204 ETA: Just for giggles, look at the 12z Wed Dec 27th 2mT in E MT... just a tad chilly at 56 below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Per 00z GGEM... DC high temps are mid 20s on the 26th, around 20 on the 27th, and low 20s on the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 not one model gives us snow. who broke the CMC ...that used to give us 100 inches a snow a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 0z GFS snowfall mean is too West for our liking. Still shifting West and East compared to 18z and 12z Compare to 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's about as close to a foot of ice you'll ever see on a model in TX. That has to be a top 5 fantasy ice storm larry cosgrove would be proud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: 0z GFS snowfall mean is too West for our liking. Still shifting West and East compared to 18z and 12z Compare to 18z: Those maps don't correlate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Those maps don't correlate... Not saying they do, but they represent the potential snow event near Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I bet that by 12z tomorrow there's a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I bet that by 12z tomorrow there's a storm. I think there's a possibility. Turning cold on 25th seems like a given now. Precip with cold isn't just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 For some reason it seems like a wet pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: For some reason it seems like a wet pattern It's not. Been dry for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Remember when the weeklies had -nao for 6 straight weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I think when the Stratosphere is warm we have a lot of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: For some reason it seems like a wet pattern Ok - so what is the "for some reason" logic that's behind your statement? You post these one liners and then don't substantiate them with anything. Please, enlighten us if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 It was a substantial difference when 10mb at the Pole shifted from negative anomaly early Dec to positive anomaly Dec8 then back to negative a few days ago. Other times had this trend as well. question is if there will be 10mb warming but there is pretty hard data for it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 If you're interested in researching, here are some of the events. quickly reviewing it, it seems to be a 25-50% more snowy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I don't know... im broke. this is something to do , it's more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I still like Jan 1-2 for a big snowfall event in your region, and the general trend on the models is a good one, bearing in mind that the energy peak involved in this potential storm has a life cycle of 10 days max so models may not be catching much of it yet. Would not rule out the Dec 27-29 time frame for a lead-in event then a larger one following that, feeling that with this super cold air coming down into the GL region higher pressure will follow over Quebec and gain some blocking support as a trough deepens around 90W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 0z Euro looks worse so far... Not to the 25th yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 850s look better though. Almost in line with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 0z Euro looks worse so far... Not to the 25th yet though Hour 144 it looks better compared to 12z. According to my amateur eyes. Just looking at 2M temps though on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said: Hour 144 it looks better compared to 12z. According to my amateur eyes. Just looking at 2M temps though on TT Pretty sure TT doesn't do 2M temps. It does 850s though, which are better compared to 12z/0z previous runs. 2M temps improve on the 24th though, they cold just looked farther West on the 23rd, but it seems to have been faster travelling East. That or the SE ridge is smaller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Pretty sure TT doesn't do 2M temps. It does 850s though, which are better. 2M temps improve on the 24th though, they cold just looked farther West on the 23rd, but it seems to have been faster travelling East. That or the SE ridge is smaller You are right. I was looking at GFS. forgot to change it to ECMWF. 850's are better on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Temps seasonable low-mid 40s, but yucky rain Absolutely no comparison to 12z though. Big improvement all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Looks like if this trend holds up, we're beating climo and every airport will be below average for the month. Chances of snow are still to be determined though. Much easier to determine patterns at this range rather than snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro/GFS latch on to idea of targeting cold dump to Midwest rather than Midwest/West. Probably means colder temps for us as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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