December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Cobalt]

I think the most impressive part is that the day after Christmas would only get up to the mid-high teens of the GFS was right

[Amped]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Is that a 1066 high....geez?

2 runs in a row with flakes on Christmas for parts of the forum 

Not good for snow unless you like lake effect.

[Jebman]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Is that a 1066 high....geez?

2 runs in a row with flakes on Christmas for parts of the forum 

Gonna be perfect for a t-shirt jebwalk at night

[WxUSAF]

I’ll take the over on temps and under on that high pressure.

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Gonna be perfect for a t-shirt jebwalk at night

Seriously?  Who needs a shirt!?  Or pants. 

 

[Jebman]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm talking strictly Christmas.   Ops have been showing ambiance to light snows and some ensemble members agree. I'm personally not going look past a day 7 threat even if the chance is low . But les and upslope will be ramped for sure after the front .

Record breaking Christmas cold for N. Dakota and Minnesota.  I see highs in the -25F range ..dam*

I am green with jealousy. They get to enjoy all the fresh Siberian air. I CRAVE VODKA COLD

I want cross polar flow with absolutely NO EFFIN MERCY, no mercy at all.

[Cobalt]

e7 with a side of fries please

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

25% chance of blizzard.. maybe more likely for Ohio valley

 

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll take the over on temps and under on that high pressure.

No doubt. We should all want that honeslty. A 1060hp and purrler verrrtex smack dab in the heart of the country does absolutely nothing but bad stuff for snow chances. 

Nothing is showing any kind of atlantic blocking so at least it will be on the move. This whole pattern after christmas could produce an epic ice storm. Who knows where but this is a Jan 94 upper level kind of setup in general. When that beast retreats someone might get a foot of ice if there's a storm on the heels. 

[Jebman]

I love catastrophic ice even more than a Kocin Uccellini BECS.

[Rtd208]

Just playing devils advocate a bit, this could change and who knows what will happen after this.

 

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Just playing devils advocate a bit, this could change and who knows what will happen after this.

 

I believe nothing in the LR anymore.  Crap chute is what it is.

[BristowWx]

GEFS is one of the coldest runs in a while for Christmas Day.  My zone says 54 but the LWX discussion says high uncertainty.

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

The mean is below 32 just nw of the cites now .

Awesome but damn dry.  For now.  I think we have more silly model runs to go.  But the theme of colder is gaining ground.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I believe nothing in the LR anymore.  Crap chute is what it is.

I don't either. When I upped my snowfall amounts in the contest thread I did it because of the ao going negative and looking to stay negative. Nope. It flipped. All the teleconnectioms and features like the SER and WAR have flipped up and down this winter. The only feature/TC that seems to want to be stable is the epo. It's shown a clear tendency to want to go negative more than positive and it started in Nov. That's the only piece out of everything that seems to have some long range predictability this year.  Everything else is just doing whatever whenever. And for that reason I don't think anything (human or computer model) has much if any skill beyond a couple weeks. 

I mean sure, it might moderate for a while in Jan. When doesn't it though? I can call for a Jan thaw right now for 2019. I'll probably be right but is that skill? Not really. 

[Wonderdog]

The cold is probably overdone and hopefully that allows some frozen to get into our area. We want it cold, just not too cold. But I state the obvious.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't either. When I upped my snowfall amounts in the contest thread I did it because of the ao going negative and looking to stay negative. Nope. It flipped. All the teleconnectioms and features like the SER and WAR have flipped up and down this winter. The only feature/TC that seems to want to be stable is the epo. It's shown a clear tendency to want to go negative more than positive and it started in Nov. That's the only piece out of everything that seems to have some long range predictability this year.  Everything else is just doing whatever whenever. And for that reason I don't think anything (human or computer model) has much if any skill beyond a couple weeks. 

I mean sure, it might moderate for a while in Jan. When doesn't it though? I can call for a Jan thaw right now for 2019. I'll probably be right but is that skill? Not really. 

Did you just cancel January 2019?

[showmethesnow]

For what it's worth the GEFS snow mean jumped a deceny bit for Christmas. Went from 1 inch through the cities to now 2.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Christmas frozen  gaining more support from the Gefs.  .lookin at precip panels 

That really would be a miracle.  Another thing I don't believe any more is the Euro is always better.  If Christmas is cold then the GFS led the way.  Can't wait to see where things go at 0z if I can keep awake.  Probably not. I guess if everything was totally predictable this far out the hobby would suck.  You would know your fate so why track.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

The cold is probably overdone and hopefully that allows some frozen to get into our area. We want it cold, just not too cold. But I state the obvious.

Your new avatar has brought luck.  Nice looking pup.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't either. When I upped my snowfall amounts in the contest thread I did it because of the ao going negative and looking to stay negative. Nope. It flipped. All the teleconnectioms and features like the SER and WAR have flipped up and down this winter. The only feature/TC that seems to want to be stable is the epo. It's shown a clear tendency to want to go negative more than positive and it started in Nov. That's the only piece out of everything that seems to have some long range predictability this year.  Everything else is just doing whatever whenever. And for that reason I don't think anything (human or computer model) has much if any skill beyond a couple weeks. 

I mean sure, it might moderate for a while in Jan. When doesn't it though? I can call for a Jan thaw right now for 2019. I'll probably be right but is that skill? Not really. 

You make great points Bob. For some weird reason variability seems a much higher factor...even at medium/short leads (last Friday) so far.  That said, it’s also nice to see things trend better as we approach events. 

I’d hate to be an energy trader right now.  

I think it fair to say many of will hop on the EPO Express and see where it takes us. 

Still worlds better than a year ago.  

Nut. 

[Wonderdog]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Your new avatar has brought luck.  Nice looking pup.

Yes she is, thanks. Coming up on a year old. She is a rascal though especially with my older golden (previous avatar)

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Did you just cancel January 2019?

Only for 10 days somewhere around the middle early later month. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't either. When I upped my snowfall amounts in the contest thread I did it because of the ao going negative and looking to stay negative. Nope. It flipped. All the teleconnectioms and features like the SER and WAR have flipped up and down this winter. The only feature/TC that seems to want to be stable is the epo. It's shown a clear tendency to want to go negative more than positive and it started in Nov. That's the only piece out of everything that seems to have some long range predictability this year.  Everything else is just doing whatever whenever. And for that reason I don't think anything (human or computer model) has much if any skill beyond a couple weeks. 

I mean sure, it might moderate for a while in Jan. When doesn't it though? I can call for a Jan thaw right now for 2019. I'll probably be right but is that skill? Not really. 

Heh, agree with this, I mean if these bitter cold temps verify what other direction can things go, moderation is inevitable. If you want to get into generalities, the MJO will be probably be in the warm phases by mid Jan so unless we get some strat help it might be unfavorable for awhile, but as you said, a thaw in January is pretty common. No sense getting down on a period that is 2 weeks away when we can't even nail down 6 days at this point.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That really would be a miracle.  Another thing I don't believe any more is the Euro is always better.  If Christmas is cold then the GFS led the way.  Can't wait to see where things go at 0z if I can keep awake.  Probably not. I guess if everything was totally predictable this far out the hobby would suck.  You would know your fate so why track.

If I could only use one model it would be the Euro. No question about it. And this is not taking away from the GFS which I think is a good model as well. It just comes down to understanding their bias and understanding how well each model handles different patterns.

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't either. When I upped my snowfall amounts in the contest thread I did it because of the ao going negative and looking to stay negative. Nope. It flipped. All the teleconnectioms and features like the SER and WAR have flipped up and down this winter. The only feature/TC that seems to want to be stable is the epo. It's shown a clear tendency to want to go negative more than positive and it started in Nov. That's the only piece out of everything that seems to have some long range predictability this year.  Everything else is just doing whatever whenever. And for that reason I don't think anything (human or computer model) has much if any skill beyond a couple weeks. 

I mean sure, it might moderate for a while in Jan. When doesn't it though? I can call for a Jan thaw right now for 2019. I'll probably be right but is that skill? Not really. 

The AO never establishing itself does throw more variability into the long range. Still the epo has been consistent as you say and that can at least keep us in the game without the AO cooperating as long as it doesn't go too ugly positive. I don't see that right now. I'm not sure how I feel about where this goes long term. I like the epo and the fact that cold is in our neighborhood this year. But I also know things could flip quick if we lose the epo given there isn't that much else going for us att. Of course the AO could flip back or even the nao could help out and pick up the torch later on. It's unlikely to run the table positive the rest of the way either. So I'm about as unsure what to think as I've ever been. And I don't mind that one bit. I'm perfectly willing to admit Mother Nature has me totally lost and beat right now in terms of where this winter is heading. I have no idea. 

I do feel pretty excited about the look after xmas through early January though. Oddly the gefs really likes the idea of an xmas miracle. But then is blah after. EPS wants none of that but looks much better later. My thoughts are we don't want the crazy cold solutions. That's usually cold dry then a warm up because if the PV crashes that far south it's not a stable pattern and it's going to relax and typically warm up after. It could reload again fast but seeing those crazy frigid runs is fun but we would be disappointed me thinks with the results in terms of snow. Besides that I also think over amplified isn't good. This is somewhat similar to 2014 in that waves are the way to go. Anything that amplifies too much could go north of us without perfect timing given the nao and AO. I'd take my chances with weaker waves along the boundary. But that can work out and has worked for us plenty recently. 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If I could only use one model it would be the Euro. No question about it. And this is not taking away from the GFS which I think is a good model as well. It just comes down to understanding their bias and understanding how well each model handles different patterns.

For ops up to day 5 the euro is the best by a good margin. No doubt about it and tons of stats to back it up.  I wish wr had access to the ukie like we do for the gfs/euro.

For ensembles I like them all. The gefs is very good for what we use it for. I like the gefs/eps equally. They are both very useful and when used together they do a pretty amazing job d10 and beyond. 

 I started really getting into wx models and upper air plots in 2006. The improvements since 06 are pretty amazing. D3-4 was the max for good accuracy back then. Nowadays I would day were in d5-6 most of the time for good accuracy. In 10 years we'll prob be in the d7-8 range. Before people jump in and say models suck at d5-6...lol...I didn't say they were perfect. But there are many times when they nail d5-6 in general terms. Snowstorms are a different beast. 

[Bob Chill]

Damn. I just looked at the gefs memebers. Best run by a mile for christmas. We can work with this spread...all we can do is hope it holds and gets better and other models jump on the train. 

 

I really hope I eat my words from this weekend when I had a mini meltdown. I wasn't down on the long range. I was just down on the fact that everything was trending for Christmas to suck wx wise. Snow on Christmas is the holy grail of snow weenies. Every year for the last 10 I've been hoping to track something legit and it usually ends up being an obvious shutout at long range.  2010 scarred me for life. This year showed a legit chance and it hooked me. Then 70s started showing up and all models took a dump.

Still seems like a big stretch for it to happen but man, it's still close enough to consider the option....

[Cobalt]

Pretty strong precip signal for the 25th

Individual members pretty impressive too

Snowfall mean jumps up 2" from the 24th-26th

[RDM]

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

I think the most impressive part is that the day after Christmas would only get up to the mid-high teens of the GFS was right

Thanks for posting that Cobalt.  Just got home from work and am getting caught up...  

    Something is fishy with that map.  Growing up just North of Dayton, we were never ever that much colder than Michigan and northward.  Ohio, Indiana and nrn Kentucky often have temps much colder than around here.  Often 15-20 F colder than us when we get "cold" (it's all relative).  But we were never that much colder than Michigan and the UP (upper peninsula of Michigan).

  Likewise, in order for us/Dayton to get that cold, we'd typically see circa -20 to -30F or so in the UP and upper reaches of Minnesota.  International Falls, Minnesota was traditionally one of the coldest places in CONUS.  When they got nailed by a PV, we had about a day before Dayton did.  We're talking the harshest periods of winter, like 78, and realize that was 30 plus years ago and longer, but still don't buy the prognosis depicted on the map wrt the boundary on the nrn fringe.  The boundary outlined on the eastern side is far more believable.