Cobalt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 EPS mean is seasonable for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: EPS mean is seasonable for Christmas Mean is ever so slightly faster than 0z on FROPA. But as Bob rightly pointed out, the mean temp probably doesn’t tell you much. If the front lags, we torch. If it gets through, we freeze. Not a huge middle ground, although some CAD could create some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 More interesting is that EPS has a “low” just offshore Xmas morning like the GEFS. Not as far offshore as GEFS, but not over WV like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolahurricane Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Can someone either post (a) the euro op snow map for WV; or (b) a link to where I can find it? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Mean is ever so slightly faster than 0z on FROPA. But as Bob rightly pointed out, the mean temp probably doesn’t tell you much. If the front lags, we torch. If it gets through, we freeze. Not a huge middle ground, although some CAD could create some. Looking at individual members, it's clear that the torches skew the mean, since if it's warm on Christmas, it's gonna be a torch. 18/26 members show average or below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, nolahurricane said: Can someone either (a) post the euro op snow map for WV or (b) a link to where I can find it? Thanks! http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The EPS snow mean through day 15 is pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Looking at individual members, it's clear that the torches skew the mean, since if it's warm on Christmas, it's gonna be a torch. 18/26 members show average or below average That was really great for you to post. I understand it so much better now with warm changing the mean. All or nothing is what it looks like for the most part. I am encouraged a bit. I know its just another day for some but for me cold or warm changes my mood on the 25th. it always has and always will. Best memories are cold...not warm with everyone complaining the house is hot. we get plenty of warm/hot days...25 Dec not welcome from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Definitely different from years past when all the cold in the NH seemed to migrate toward Asia...not this year so far. Seems pretty biased toward NA. Good lawd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Our dear friend the NAM is trending in the right direction for Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Our dear friend the NAM is trending in the right direction for Thursday... Still a long way to go in a very short amount of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Definitely different from years past when all the cold in the NH seemed to migrate toward Asia...not this year so far. Seems pretty biased toward NA. Good lawd We are going to freeze this winter, along with plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 it would be nice if some of these model runs actually showed precip when its cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ji said: it would be nice if some of these model runs actually showed precip when its cold enough Here ya go! All falls Christmas day onward. 26th+ is money for at least another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ji said: it would be nice if some of these model runs actually showed precip when its cold enough Hey now you know that's asking too much for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I like these panels much better.... Upped the ante on cold and precip post Christmas. Mean low temps in the teens @ d10+ and sub freezing mean highs happens like never. lol .7 mean mean precip after the 25th. That's the most I've seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like these panels much better.... Upped the ante on cold and precip post Christmas. Mean low temps in the teens @ d10+ happens like never. lol .7 mean mean precip after the 25th. That's the most I've seen yet. Deep winter coming up , right at the low point of the sun, i love it :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Warm/wet and cold/dry should surprise no one in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Warm/wet and cold/dry should surprise no one in a Nina. Happens in Nino and neutral too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Warm/wet and cold/dry should surprise no one in a Nina. Don’t worry that nino is coming next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 That EPS metrogram Bob posted is informative. Look at the comparatively small range of the 25-75 percentiles on Xmas temps. Then there are some torchtastic outliers like the op euro. Op euro actually might be THE warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS looks North for Thursday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS looks North for Thursday event We're going to inch our way into cold rain. Calling it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Gotta love seeing a 1028mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The Outerbanks just lost their 70 degree Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, eurojosh said: We're going to inch our way into cold rain. Calling it now! for Wednesday/Thursday or Christmas...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The GFS is on roids with it day after Christmas night/ Post Christmas ice chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The high is up to 1065mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: The GFS is on roids with it day after Christmas night/ Post Christmas ice chest. Absolutely freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Cold air comes in quicker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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