December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[csnavywx]

GFS has been too cold over the last few weeks. Pattern favors a slower Euro-like progression. That monster -EPO/-AO will probably be too much of a good thing initially. After several days though, it might allow for some overrunning events.

 

 

 

[Z-Cast]

12z Euro brings cold air boundary further south through 48.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like some support from the Gefs  for the  op run for snow possibility on Christmas . 

A lot of very close calls and some hits. Big improvement from any run I've seen. I could be missing something though. Either way, we can work inside of this spread

[WxUSAF]

Hmmm euro looking more like today’s GFS so far. Faster with the front through us but hangs it up to our south and a wave rides up.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm euro looking more like today’s GFS so far. Faster with the front through us but hangs it up to our south and a wave rides up.

It's an improvement but the SE ridge still wins. Better run though so I'll leave it at that and hope for the best over the coming few days. 

ETA: fairly big shift with the epo ridge. Instead of folding over into Canada it's pushed poleward. Basically becomes a -ao. Interesting. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm euro looking more like today’s GFS so far. Faster with the front through us but hangs it up to our south and a wave rides up.

wave holds it up unfortunately

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's an improvement but the SE ridge still wins. Better run though so I'll leave it at that and hope for the best over the coming few days. 

 

Just now, mitchnick said:

waves holds it up unfortunately

Ack yeah. Closer but still not enough. Trend=friend? 

[Bob Chill]

Interesting panel with the -epo turned -ao. This is a very cold conus pattern. No doubt about that. 

 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

wave holds it up unfortunately

I am guess its not 70F on the 25th?  68F?  Anything would be an improvement. 

[Ji]

as long as each run keeps trending or is different...no point in my trying to lock down a solution. I am not a big DT defender, but you all were hard on him yesterday and proclaimed victory while the models were still having wild changes from run to run

[Amped]

This is how it is a lot of times.  The first event after the pattern change doesn't work out cause the warm air won't leave fast enough.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

as long as each run keeps trending or is different...no point in my trying to lock down a solution. I am not a big DT defender, but you all were hard on him yesterday and proclaimed victory while the models were still having wild changes from run to run

Agreed. I'll happily eat my words but only if the front clears by christmas day. DT said the SE ridge was being overdone but in reality all guidance shows a strong SE ridge. Right up until Christmas. 

All 3 ops and ens are fairly close now. Not sure if we'll see any more big jumps but being right on the edge will make small shifts seem huge. I'm over caring about Christmas. I had my melt and it's over. I'm focused on any and all snow chances trough the end of the month. If it rains on Christmas (or is warm) but there is something promising in the med range I honestly won't care at all. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro still says flip flops on the holiday. So stuck on the speed of the boundary that I forgot to check temps. lol

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro still says flip flops on the holiday. So stuck on the speed of the boundary that I forgot to check temps. lol

Fix that Bob 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Fix that Bob 

That's easy. Just hug the gfs. Fixed!

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. I'll happily eat my words but only if the front clears by christmas day. DT said the SE ridge was being overdone but in reality all guidance shows a strong SE ridge. Right up until Christmas. 

All 3 ops and ens are fairly close now. Not sure if we'll see any more big jumps but being right on the edge will make small shifts seem huge. I'm over caring about Christmas. I had my melt and it's over. I'm focused on any and all snow chances trough the end of the month. If it rains on Christmas (or is warm) but there is something promising in the med range I honestly won't care at all. 

so really all three ops are not that close.  GFS no where near that warm even late on the 24th.  So we are not that much closer to consensus unless I am way off base on this.  Always possible. 

[mitchnick]

not a flake of snow on this run.....toss it

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

so really all three ops are not that close.  GFS no where near that warm even late on the 24th.  So we are not that much closer to consensus unless I am way off base on this.  Always possible. 

If you look @ hr 168 h5 plot for all three ops, they are pretty close. Especially for that lead. The all or none proposition of the setup makes it feel like they are miles apart but they really aren't. 

 

 

[aldie 22]

Will say this GFS was first to start hinting at 70 on Christmas day...I would refer you to my post about it from a couple weeks ago but it was deleted. That said msybe it will be first to get the front passage right

[BristowWx]

yes they do look similar.  trough looks more positive on GFS which maybe why is allow the cold to bleed in further east. 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Will say this GFS was first to start hinting at 70 on Christmas day...I would refer you to my post about it from a couple weeks ago but it was deleted. That said msybe it will be first to get the front passage right

Most everyone says don't bet against the Euro.  if we do hit 70F it wouldn't last too long.  Even the Euro looks more progressive with the front so its warm rain to cool rain perhaps.  I have no idea what will actually happen but it beats boring and dry even if it is rain.  One thing nearly for sure is there should be a front nearby 23-26

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

yes they do look similar.  trough looks more positive on GFS which maybe why is allow the cold to bleed in further east. 

We're starting to see some consistency in general so that's good. Worst case now is the front clears on the 26th so that's good. Last night's EPS is just about equally divided on getting it through on the 25th. EPS mean temp dropped from 12z to 0z run for Christmas day. Mean temps probably don't tell a good story of what ground truth will be. It's probably going to either be pretty warm or pretty chilly. Once the front does make it through it's going to be a quick flip to a deep winter feel. Hopefully my illegal skating pond freezes good this week. Got the itch to shoot some pucks into the bank. lol

[BristowWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

We're starting to see some consistency in general so that's good. Worst case now is the front clears on the 26th so that's good. Last night's EPS is just about equally divided on getting it through on the 25th. EPS mean temp dropped from 12z to 0z for Christmas day. Mean temps probably don't tell a good story of what ground truth will be. It's probably going to either be pretty warm or pretty chilly. Once the front does make it through it's going to be a quick flip to a deep winter feel. Hopefully my illegal skating pond freezes good this week. Got the itch to shoot some pucks into the bank. lol

I am going to venture a guess its both pretty warm very early and pretty chilly by late morning.  That splits the difference for GFS and Euro.  just a wag. we need a few more days I think but its headed in the right way from 18z yesterday so for that I am thankful.   

[Cobalt]

Just woke up. I've already wrecked my sleep schedule going to sleep near 2:00am after waiting for the Euro, and then waking up at 1:00 to see the Euro (again). Still looks like an improvement compared to last run. More wintry for NW parts of this forum

Compared to 0z:

So close to cold, but yet so far. 

We do know something though. Next week will be cold, if not frigid

 

[clskinsfan]

That frontal passage should be pretty cool if nothing else. You are talking about a 25-30 degree temperature difference within 25-30 miles.

[Cobalt]

Bernie believes that the GFS is wrong and that the Euro is correct (summarizing the video)

 

[Heisy]

If you look at the OP EURO you can see the split flow @ Day 10....Look at the S/W near California. I am really interested in a large scale winter storm near New Years right now. Unfortunately, the dreams of a white christmas are dying unless you live in the Ohio Valley. 

[wkd]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

If you look at the OP EURO you can see the split flow @ Day 10....Look at the S/W near California. I am really interested in a large scale winter storm near New Years right now. Unfortunately, the dreams of a white christmas are dying unless you live in the Ohio Valley. 

You're probably right but I still have hopes for Christmas in light of things slowly creeping east each run.  Christmas is over a week away so I am worried we may be talking suppression in a few days.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

If you look at the OP EURO you can see the split flow @ Day 10....Look at the S/W near California. I am really interested in a large scale winter storm near New Years right now. Unfortunately, the dreams of a white christmas are dying unless you live in the Ohio Valley. 

Yep, looks good. But it will completely different every 12 hours for the infinite future. 

[Heisy]

This is the 250mb look on the 12z EURO today....The arrow is pointing at the sign of the split flow. I am in absolute love with this potential setup going forward. I know most people have their eyes focused on the X-mas front, but I believe we are seeing the step down process with the cold. Each front keeps pushing the cold deeper and deeper into the CONUS. The X-mas front is the last one, and then we have the split flow do its dirty work. February 5-6 2010 originated with a split flow similar to this.