December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[pasnownut]

Uhh ok....just saw next 2 panels. I’m stayin up a bit longer. Can’t nelieve what I’m seeing. 

Christmas wishes are coming true!!!

[Bob Chill]

 The most important thing needed to change was the ridge postion and not closing off and happened. Christmas miracle. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Took the words right out of my mouth. We kinda do need a minor miracle given the consensus and last few years but how often have we seen the 500 mb progs be off D7+? Too many times IMO. It doesn’t take much change up above to shift our sensible wx.

Hopefully the Euro doesn’t show 75 and rain. 

Canadian didn't budge. 1 out of 2 so far. 

[pasnownut]

Merry Christmas to all....

and to all a good night....

 

I know I know. No snow maps...just needed to spread some Christmas cheer. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Canadian didn't budge. 1 out of 2 so far. 

CMC in the long range is a joke

[Bob Chill]

Wow

[poolz1]

The perfect Christmas day...cold, cloudy and maybe enough snow to give some slushy accums but not on the roads.

[poolz1]

Looking interesting in fantasy land....The "chuck" blizzard?

[Cobalt]

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Real nice signal for warming on the side of the Globe at 10mb. (+2-4 weeks correlates to -NAO)

Cool to see the difference, at 500mb models have this area cold. The difference usually strengthens the lag. 

[poolz1]

There's your CAD....

[Bob Chill]

Fantasy epic ice storm with a snow topper. 94 redux. 

[Ji]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 The most important thing needed to change was the ridge postion and not closing off and happened. Christmas miracle. 

until its closes off the next run and the ridge position changes again and your back to being negative:)

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

until its closes off the next run and the ridge position changes again and your back to being negative:)

I'm still pretty negative but I'm not going to get mad at the gfs for trying to cheer me up. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm still pretty negative but I'm not going to get mad at the gfs for trying to cheer me up. 

What if the GEFS cheered you up as well?

[Ji]

17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

What if the GEFS cheered you up as well?

Sucks for northern New jersey

[Cobalt]

Day after Christmas looks freezing

 

[Cobalt]

If GEFS/GFS are right, we would probably beat climo and end up below normal for the month

[Cobalt]

0z Euro step in the right direction. Attempts to bring cold air in sooner. far NW parts of our forum would be fairly chilly Christmas day, but still torch, but doesn't look like as much as a torch for the region. Good step in the right direction

Vs 0z:

Good trend. DT still likes the idea of cold East. If this trend continues, he could be right

 

[Cobalt]

Looking at day 9, there's no comparison between the runs

Vs 12z:

Euro even shows some snow during D9-10

As they say, the trend is your friend. We may be game on for some snow events after Christmas, but if this trend continues, we could have wintry weather or cold on Christmas. 

I'm on Winter break, but I'm gonna just go to sleep. I'll deal with the 0z GFS when I wake up lol

 

 

 

 

[SteveVa]

I'm not sure that 00z Euro is much better than 12z, it tries to close off the ridge out west. Hopefully it's just its bias to hold onto SW trough for too long.

00z GFS and GEFS look much better, cold front comes in even before Christmas Eve. Torchmas cancel?

EPS is only out to 66hrs so I'll be off to bed even though I'm on break, hopefully I wake up to more good news  

[BristowWx]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Merry Christmas to all....

and to all a good night....

 

I know I know. No snow maps...just needed to spread some Christmas cheer. 

Didn't expect to see this but thanks for posting.  I see the GFS and op Euro couldn't be more different for 25th.  This should be fun

[mitchnick]

850 temp anomalies from the 3 ensembles 0z run for day 8 (7pm Christmas night.) Gfs clearly colder, but not by much. Euro and Canadian are basically a day behind. Gfs on top, then Euro,  then Canadian. The operational models may be vastly different,  but the ensemble means are close.

 

[BristowWx]

6z looks to continue the theme of pushing the front through by 24-25th.  0z was better with precip.

[Wonderdog]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z looks to continue the theme of pushing the front through by 24-25th.  0z was better with precip.

Agreed. Things are beginning to look better for next week.

[showmethesnow]

Overnight run of the EPS threw us what could possibly be a nice bone for a late Christmas present. And under 10 days no less. But you all have seen how the models have had struggles lately so this could very well be gone by the 12z run today.

Below we have the 500 mb map for day 9.

First off notice we have what looks to be 2 splits in the flow. One off the Aleutians and one off the coast of California. What the southern split flow is creating is a southern stream undercutting the ridging running up into Alaska. This southern jet is then being forced north by the higher heights we see to our south so that it is running through the southern states up and off the mid-Atlantic coast. Along with this southern jet we see warmer temps and potential moisture streaming into the gulf states and into the Southeast. What we see with the Aleutian split flow is it is creating a mid-latitude jet running through the Pacific northwest and diving down into the CONUS as well as a polar jet north of that feature that is basically creating cross polar flow and driving extremely cold temps down into the CONUS. As you can see all three jets are converging in the central part of the US. Now where they converge we see confluence setting up from the Midwest through the east coast. Convergence is where more air moves into an area then that area can handle so it gets forced upwards creating lift (can't be forced downwards because of the ground). Now one other feature I will point out is the PV in eastern Canada (failed to label it but it is the black circle). This feature is in the process up pulling northward at this time.

 

 

Now below we have the jets I had mentioned before. Being an ensemble the look gets muddied at range so they aren't distinct features. But if you notice where I marked the split flow you can see where these jets are running in the Pacific into the west coast. As you can see everything is converging in the central portion of the US. We see the consolidated jet streaming to the east coast and then up the coast. Storm tracks will set up on the southern portion of the jet roughly where I have it marked below.

 

 

Below we have the 850 temp anomalies. Deep cold just to our west with strong high pressure to boot, with warmer temps in the southeast. Notice the boundary between the warmer and colder temps. More of a east/west look vs. a north/south look. This is a good look. This setup argues for any possible storm to ride the boundary marked below.

 

 

Now what I have shown above has the earmarks of big storm potential for the east coast. 3 possible jets in play, drastic temp differences over short areas, retreating PV, just a very good overall setup. And the setup as now shown would put us squarely into play. Now it takes more then just having a good setup to produce a big storm. The interaction between energy embedded in the different streams is the deciding key. But the look above is pretty much in your face about the possibilities. Shame that with how the models have been handling the longer ranges that chances are good this will be gone come 12Z. But I will say that going back over previous runs there have been some hints about this possible time period (roughly Wed/Thur). Who knows, maybe the EPS can deliver us a late Christmas present.

 

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Agreed. Things are beginning to look better for next week.

I would feel better if Euro was on board but we really still have 6 days so not a bad spot right now compared to yesterday.  

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Gefs keeps ticking Midweek system north. Some members get some frozen to our yards. Wouldn't surprise me if that southern vort continued to trend north and more amped.  It just wants to snow this year it seems. 

I keep watching that. The 500mb and surface maps have slowly improved with that feature. Think it will all come down to if the low we see running through NE before hand can retreat a little quicker then currently projected. That would allow a little more room for our southern low to move northward and intensify a touch more. 

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnight run of the EPS threw us what could possibly be a nice bone for a late Christmas present. And under 10 days no less. But you all have seen how the models have had struggles lately so this could very well be gone by the 12z run today.

Below we have the 500 mb map for day 9.

First off notice we have what looks to be 2 splits in the flow. One off the Aleutians and one off the coast of California. What the southern split flow is creating is a southern stream undercutting the ridging running up into Alaska. This southern jet is then being forced north by the higher heights we see to our south so that it is running through the southern states up and off the mid-Atlantic coast. Along with this southern jet we see warmer temps and potential moisture streaming into the gulf states and into the Southeast. What we see with the Aleutian split flow is it is creating a mid-latitude jet running through the Pacific northwest and diving down into the CONUS as well as a polar jet north of that feature that is basically creating cross polar flow and driving extremely cold temps down into the CONUS. As you can see all three jets are converging in the central part of the US. Now where they converge we see confluence setting up from the Midwest through the east coast. Convergence is where more air moves into an area then that area can handle so it gets forced upwards creating lift (can't be forced downwards because of the ground). Now one other feature I will point out is the PV in eastern Canada (failed to label it but it is the black circle). This feature is in the process up pulling northward at this time.

 

 

Now below we have the jets I had mentioned before. Being an ensemble the look gets muddied at range so they aren't distinct features. But if you notice where I marked the split flow you can see where these jets are running in the Pacific into the west coast. As you can see everything is converging in the central portion of the US. We see the consolidated jet streaming to the east coast and then up the coast. Storm tracks will set up on the southern portion of the jet roughly where I have it marked below.

 

 

Below we have the 850 temp anomalies. Deep cold just to our west with strong high pressure to boot, with warmer temps in the southeast. Notice the boundary between the warmer and colder temps. More of a east/west look vs. a north/south look. This is a good look. This setup argues for any possible storm to ride the boundary marked below.

 

 

Now what I have shown above has the earmarks of big storm potential for the east coast. 3 possible jets in play, drastic temp differences over short areas, retreating PV, just a very good overall setup. And the setup as now shown would put us squarely into play. Now it takes more then just having a good setup to produce a big storm. The interaction between energy embedded in the different streams is the deciding key. But the look above is pretty much in your face about the possibilities. Shame that with how the models have been handling the longer ranges that chances are good this will be gone come 12Z. But I will say that going back over previous runs there have been some hints about this possible time period (roughly Wed/Thur). Who knows, maybe the EPS can deliver us a late Christmas present.

 

I honestly would rather have a storm a day or two after Christmas rather then on Christmas itself since that could really throw a wrench into alot of peoples plans including mine. Hopefully the models will keep trending in the direction of increasing the winter storm potential in the timeframe you mentioned above. Good write up.

[aldie 22]

Just remember the snow we just had on Friday showed it's face early as a Saturday storm then disappeared for a long time then all of the sudden on Thursday we were talking snow on Friday . Jus sayin