December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll never forget the 5-6"  inch sleet storm . And one storm it rained  at 17 -18 F ..brutal ice ..crazy stuff man 

I loathe that winter. The he!! with sleet and zr. NYC on north got crushed with snow and all we had was taint storm after taint storm. Ughh

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That winter was unbelievable. I was able to ice skate on the back yard that January from all of the ice storms.

Well it’s been a quarter century since that time...maybe we are due.  AN temps is what we excel at.

[Sparky]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

93 /94 winter? 

I remember the last week of Dec 93 being real cold but I could be wrong t

The Christmas snow squall in the evening hours is when the sh*t hit the fan that winter.  Basically a freeze box after that.

[87storms]

43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll never forget the 5-6"  inch sleet storm . And one storm it rained  at 17 -18 F ..brutal ice ..crazy stuff man 

That feb 94 sleet storm was a legendary bust here. Supposed to get 4-8” of snow and it just sleeted the entire time minus about 5 minutes. The storm formed along a stalled out front in the south and ended up basically riding the southern apps. Ny got heavy snow. Meteorologically interesting but I’ll pass on a repeat of that.  

The ice storms were incredible. It looked like Russia outside. Ice on the street...everywhere.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

More -AO trend. This will likely go all the way in the next few runs.

 

 

New PV over Siberia is wild card. 
 

[ErinInTheSky]

47 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That feb 94 sleet storm was a legendary bust here. Supposed to get 4-8” of snow and it just sleeted the entire time minus about 5 minutes. The storm formed along a stalled out front in the south and ended up basically riding the southern apps. Ny got heavy snow. Meteorologically interesting but I’ll pass on a repeat of that.  

The ice storms were incredible. It looked like Russia outside. Ice on the street...everywhere.

Any of y'all got cool pictures of any of these ice storms?

[eurojosh]

14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Any of y'all got cool pictures of any of these ice storms?

 

[Bob Chill]

One thing that really stood out big to me on the 18z gefs is constant cross polar flow into the conus from d10 through the end of the run. Folks in the upper midwest will breathing vodka fumes straight from Siberia for days and days. 

Near perfect upper level ridge placement across the npac and big upper level low spinning in nother canada. It's a serious cold pump look. 

This is just one panel and it's all the way at the end. Every panel before it looks similar. Look at those streamlines. Wowz

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I never thought I'd say this, but I'm actually tempted to chase it. Should have a week off between Christmas and NYD. 

12 hour drive and your boogers will freeze when you breath through your nose. It happens too. We had some -25s in Colorado from time to time in the valleys. Your boogers would literally freeze. If your eyes tear that freezes too. I had my eyelashes freeze together more than once. One morning I was in a rush to work and my hand froze briefly to the steering wheel cuz my dumb ass wasnt wearing gloves. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

That feb 94 sleet storm was a legendary bust here. Supposed to get 4-8” of snow and it just sleeted the entire time minus about 5 minutes. The storm formed along a stalled out front in the south and ended up basically riding the southern apps. Ny got heavy snow. Meteorologically interesting but I’ll pass on a repeat of that.  

The ice storms were incredible. It looked like Russia outside. Ice on the street...everywhere.

So 94 was basically a longer version of that crappy sleet storm we got earlier this year? 

[poolz1]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12 hour drive and your boogers will freeze when you breath through your nose. It happens too. We had some -25s in Colorado from time to time in the valleys. Your boogers would literally freeze. If your eyes tear that freezes too. I had my eyelashes freeze together more than once. One morning I was in a rush to work and my hand froze briefly to the steering wheel cuz my dumb ass wasnt wearing gloves. 

Experienced this once while skiing at Killington in VT.... -22f  Ironically, this was the infamous 95/96 winter just a day before the Blizzard of '96

[MillvilleWx]

One thing that really stood out big to me on the 18z gefs is constant cross polar flow into the conus from d10 through the end of the run. Folks in the upper midwest will breathing vodka fumes straight from Siberia for days and days. 
Near perfect upper level ridge placement across the npac and big upper level low spinning in nother canada. It's a serious cold pump look. 
This is just one panel and it's all the way at the end. Every panel before it looks similar. Look at those streamlines. Wowz

That look is how you get record low maxes for several days in the Northern Plains. I honestly think we’ll get the cold, but I’m looking forward to seeing the Vort pattern moving forward after the cold arrives. Models are going to have a whale of a time really deciphering each shortwave dipping down into the US. That SER might be a pig, but that could be what sets up something down the line. Weak southern wave along the baroclinic boundary with a northern stream short diving down could spell opportunity for fun. At least some interaction opportunities. Regardless, could be a dam cold finish to 2017. All this ice storm talk got me excited. I was too young to remember anything of 94. Dad said it was wicked and top 3 worst ice winters of his lifetime.


.

[BristowWx]

The problem for us is to experience really negative departures we need snow cover.  That will be in short supply.  We can’t hold onto snow for more than a few days around here.  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, that's exactly what I want to see lol. Hopefully we get a piece of that and I won't have to travel. 

You won’t...you’ll have to travel.  Who knows there might be more souls to reap on that journey.  

[Sparky]

January 94 was the one and only time my high temp didn't crack zero.  Topped out at -1 with a low of -12.

[anotherman]

I was living in Altoona during my freshman year. That winter was the one and only time that I tried to pump gas and the pumps wouldn’t work.

[WVclimo]

The cold snap in January 1994 wasn't only notable for the record low temps.  Those readings were also accompanied by winds 25-35 mph with wind chills (using the old calculations) of -30 to -40.  Grabbed this screen capture from a YouTube video during the coldest morning:

[Bob Chill]

54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

1994 i hit -12 to -15 F a few times with no snow cover and that's another reason I hold 94 as a benchmark .

Exactly. Snow otg helps with good radiational cooling conditions. No doubt there. But getting hit flush with a true arctic mass by cold air advection can get below zero no problem. Hard to say if the upcoming period does that. First shot is centered too far west. It will be cold but nothing unusual by the time it gets here. If cross polar flow sets up for a while then we could get hit flush. I would guess -10 and below would need to get to at least Ohio for us to go subzero.

I moved to CO in 1992 so I missed the ice and deep freeze in 94. Sounds pretty sick by all accounts 

[Cobalt]

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The cold snap in January 1994 wasn't only notable for the record low temps.  Those readings were also accompanied by winds 25-35 mph with wind chills (using the old calculations) of -30 to -40.  Grabbed this screen capture from a YouTube video during the coldest morning:

That's insane. Worst temps I can think of during my (relatively short) lifetime were somewhere in 2014 or 2015. Our school ended up cancelling since there were so many kids that would have to walk or wait for the bus. Pretty sure it got below zero with wind chills in the -10s during the night. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This isn't as warm as I was expecting. We can do it. It seems less likely in 2017 though. It would also be a completely home grown (Canadian) cold. 

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. Snow otg helps with good radiational cooling conditions. No doubt there. But getting hit flush with a true arctic mass by cold air advection can get below zero no problem. Hard to say if the upcoming period does that. First shot is centered too far west. It will be cold but nothing unusual by the time it gets here. If cross polar flow sets up for a while then we could get hit flush. I would guess -10 and below would need to get to at least Ohio for us to go subzero.

I moved to CO in 1992 so I missed the ice and deep freeze in 94. Sounds pretty sick by all accounts 

Good point. Cold air affection is what defintely drives the temp down.  Most of the bitter cold days I remember had zero or very little snow cover. 

Snow cover really only matters on clear calm nights.

[poolz1]

I have daily records that I kept since I was 12yo...I was 17 in 94 and recorded a min high of 3f.  This was just the back porch thermometer..lol so, give or take I think its pretty impressive for the Frederick area.

[Bob Chill]

Pac ridge is further east on the 0z gfs by day 4. That can only help push things along down the line. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

How can this first storm cut into the Great Lakes and Canada then with no High above or east, it gets super cold??

Maybe the first one has to move different but this never happens.

[pasnownut]

Like Bob just suggested. Looking better pre Christmas Eve with trough pressing further SE. 

Baby step 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Like Bob just suggested. Looking better pre Christmas Eve with trough pressing further SE. 

Baby step 

Looks a lot like the 6z run. Maybe we did hit rock bottom at 12z. 

[nj2va]

Seems like the ridge out west isn’t closing off on the 0z run (like the 6z run) which is helping us downstream with the SE ridge.  12z/18z closed off the ridge out west.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks a lot like the 6z run. Maybe we did hit rock bottom at 12z. 

Sure hope so. It’s almost like the low in Quebec is trying to play 50/50?  Anxious to see what we can do in next couple days. 

May not be a good trend yet...but a decent start.  

Headed to bed.  Work your mojo n give me something enjoyable to read with my coffee tomorrow would yas?

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Seems like the ridge out west isn’t closing off on the 0z run (like the 6z run) which is helping us downstream with the SE ridge.  12z/18z closed off the ridge out west.

I saw that. Imo let’s keep that open and get that cold air in here. We clip our way to climo. 

[Cobalt]

Don't look now, but GFS shows snow on Christmas day