poolz1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps is on its own now. Geps/gefs have trended towards the ridge winning the christmas day battle. 18z gefs upped the ante. I'd be more than a little surprised if the eps holds overnight. I'm a little surprised DT is so bullish on the ridge caving. That goes against a lot of history. The nao is positive and we're in cold enso. Add in energy digging into the SW and a se ridge is supposed to happen. Models have rushed breaking down the ridge countless times in the past. I stopped following DT a few years ago. He's a pretty good forecaster but has the disposition of a porcupine on steroids...I cant take it tbh. EPS is on it's own...not as bad as the gefs being on their own which seem to bounce with every run. I'm still in wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: f*** the GFS..there is nothing positive about a warm Xmas...nothing. Shift to cod/dry? Sorry but I am not on board. I would take 80 degrees on Christmas if it means we get 60 inches of snow total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, Interstate said: I would take 80 degrees on Christmas if it means we get 60 inches of snow total Our biggest winters are typically warmer winters/have bigger warmups. If I remember correctly, 2009/2010 had a warmup during Christmas that melted all of our snowpack with rain on Christmas. It then proceeded to warmup mid-January. Our most boring winters are either downright cold, or downright warm, because typically in these parts, warm = more precipitation, cold = dry. Our best winters happen when we manage to get long enough cold periods to allow for big snow events. Times such as Late January to Mid March such as 13-14 or 14-15. Warm in winter happens, you've just gotta cash in on snow when it's cold (like so far this year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 27 minutes ago, Interstate said: I would take 80 degrees on Christmas if it means we get 60 inches of snow total He meant almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: He meant almost nothing. Right...almost is what I meant. The result is still the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GFS, it's a clear cut pattern on LR models now. You don't see this one trend colder, and it's the most consistent of all. December probably ends well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 18z GFS, it's a clear cut pattern on LR models now. You don't see this one trend colder, and it's the most consistent of all looks. I'm talking about lots of visual aesthetic. December ends well above average. It all depends on the few days leading up to and after Christmas. Pretty sure DC is running slightly below average for the month. We're gonna be above average for 8 days, and closer to average for 2 of them if the GFS is correct, and then we have 5 days of below normal. If the GFS is correct, DCA will probably 1-2 degrees above average. If the Euro is correct, we will be near-below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Off the bat 0z GFS looks bad. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I think it's just pushed back, to Jan 1-20. The Stratospheric warming happening at 10mb, expected to continue through late December correlates to -NAO in 2nd and 3rd week of January on a ridiculously high ratio, 0.85 or something. More than 50% of many analogs had mean ridge of >+200dm over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs looks more progressive this run. I think it will be a little better It corrected itself. Does look better. At Dec 23rd, SE ridge is farther East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Cold air is a lot closer to us than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Half is there. If the NAO were negative, it would be a Kocin storm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Half is there. If the NAO were negative, it would be a Kocin storm pattern. I'm unaware, what is a Kocin storm pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 500mb cuts off with like 10 surrounding isobars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Almost has the look of a potential "Aleet Aleet" run at 500mb. Great looking confluence, and overall setup actually not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Geez, really close to a MECS but too close at 8 days is probably a miss in verification. Much better run and the uncertainties and run to run wild swings continue for the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Shift this East just a little. Dont need a bullseye personally.....sharing the holiday wealth is the theme for this one :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Geez, really close to a MECS but too close at 8 days is probably a miss in verification. Much better run and the uncertainties and run to run wild swings continue for the 25th. It’s a monster hit for the mountains...like you said 5H looks better...I’m sure we will be teased by atleast a few runs...I have doubts for cold getting in before precip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I mean, I'd upload the image of the storm for everyone to see, but my max total file size is 0.03MB. All we would need is a nudge 50-100 miles East for it to be a MECS. Of course with the way these runs are wafering, you'd never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I mean, I'd upload the image of the storm for everyone to see, but my max total file size is 0.03MB. All we would need is a nudge 50-100 miles East for it to be a MECS. Of course with the way these runs are wafering, you'd never know You're right. What a difference 6 hours make from 18z to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I'm hungry for some wafers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 rip January if this happens. The PV will rot in the mid-lats. One of the most insane model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Major cold following event. If we got a MECS, it would be accompanied by frigid air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 lol what a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 GFS basically caved to euro in terms of SE ridge. Hopefully not false hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 GFS Flip-Flop Flip-Flop continues.... 18z Xmas high temps near 60, 0z highs near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 We just miss on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I don't know why the 950s low south of Greenland goes right into Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Meanwhile CMC says enjoy the mid 60s on Christmas Day im gonna park this trof out West. Insane variations on the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: We just miss on the 28th. Understatement of the century. the Ocean gets more snowfall than we get in an entire year. I imagine the odds of getting 1' of snow from both of those events is something like 1/1000000000, but I'm hopeful with that GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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