PhineasC Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps throwing conflicting signals. Shows the cold making it faster but backed way off with frozen solutions. I'll look at the members later but the conflict is prob mostly due to the wet solutions being warm and the cold ones dry. Fits the pattern unfortunately. Screw precip on Christmas. It just causes cancellations and messes anyway. Give me clear and chilly, please. 40 - 45 degrees as a high would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 A bit far out, but no complicated forecast since we probably won't be bouncing between SE ridge and not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 A bit far out, but no complicated forecast since we probably won't be bouncing between SE ridge and not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Imho, the odds of us seeing snow that's worth anything, ain't coming with wave/storm 1. Wave/storm 2 is our only shot. That's still an unknown, but I can't say I can remember anything with this setup working in the past. In light of how things have gone so far, however, I'm far from throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Anyone know of an analog for the extended eps....just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Anyone know of an analog for the extended eps....just curious. Off the top of my head, 93-94, 13-14, and 14-15. They all had similar -epo/+nao periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 59 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Screw precip on Christmas. It just causes cancellations and messes anyway. Give me clear and chilly, please. 40 - 45 degrees as a high would be fine. what? Where do you need to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ji said: what? Where do you need to go? Fwiw, I agree with Phineas. We have 25+ people coming. I don't mind eating deserts for 25 people, but not the rest of it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Off the top of my head, 93-94, 13-14, and 14-15. They all had similar -epo/+nao periods. Thanks! I am certainly not the best at this but the closest I can find is the first two weeks of Feb '94. Only difference and possibly a significant one is unlike '94 all of the cold air in the NH is located in NA this period. 500 Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Pretty close @poolz1 It's a good cold pattern but not a great snow pattern. 13-14/14-15 skew reality. Not saying the -epo/+nao can't produce because it definitely can. Comes with higher risks of west tracks, mixed events, or just plain rain. But walk the right (or should i say left.lol) side of the line and it can be prolific. Chasing a perfect pattern can be pretty futile though. They only come around so often and even when they do it doesn't guaranty anything. If we're going to get dealt the -epo/+nao card again it's totally fine in my book. Far from a shutout pattern and we might get a foot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Gfs joins the euro cuttertastic solution. Bring it. Big cutters that flip to cold can be a harbinger of a good period. Eastern ski areas aren't enthused by the latest trends but nothing we can do about it. I'm getting close to dropping the white Christmas hopes. Prob for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Bastardi and DT seem insistent on cold for Christmas and heading through the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs joins the euro cuttertastic solution. Bring it. Big cutters that flip to cold can be a harbinger of a good period. Eastern ski areas aren't enthused by the latest trends but nothing we can do about it. I'm getting close to dropping the white Christmas hopes. Prob for the best. Definitely. Warm Christmas is a good thing. Ji would agree I think. Where is the emoji with the ax in his head. He likes it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Bastardi and DT seem insistent on cold for Christmas and heading through the New Year. They might be right but they are picking the lower odds side of the guess. I mean I hope they're right but we've seen many se ridges pop during winter (especially cold enso) and they never go down easy. The one in the mid range is pretty stout too. It'll get knocked out buy unlikely it happens during round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty close @poolz1 It's a good cold pattern but not a great snow pattern. 13-14/14-15 skew reality. Not saying the -epo/+nao can't produce because it definitely can. Comes with higher risks of west tracks, mixed events, or just plain rain. But walk the right (or should i say left.lol) side of the line and it can be prolific. Chasing a perfect pattern can be pretty futile though. They only come around so often and even when they do it doesn't guaranty anything. If we're going to get dealt the -epo/+nao card again it's totally fine in my book. Far from a shutout pattern and we might get a foot of ice. Yea...looked at snowfall for DCA and it wasn't very inspiring for that period in 94. When were all of those ice storms in 94? I clearly remember it being a prolific period for ice... ets: This new forum sucks...I have no idea why my previous images are in my latest post. Tried to edit and delete but doesnt work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 70s are close. Plenty of time to trend overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 70s are close. Plenty of time to trend overhead To 80. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 70s are close. Plenty of time to trend overhead Contrast to the Euro: I love me some consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Contrast to the Euro: I love me some consensus f*** the GFS..there is nothing positive about a warm Xmas...nothing. Shift to cod/dry? Sorry but I am not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Consensus beyond d5 on ops is pretty rare. D8+ I would expect nothing different. The one important piece that both the euro and gfs now agree on is a cutter. We'll see if that holds. My guess is it does. The gfs went nuts with the SE ridge and even a cutter barely moved it. It took a second west track storm to finally push the ridge out of the way. Right or wrong it's believable and not weird or crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Big change today on models. At this range in this trend, it will probably keep pumping the SE ridge. Cutoff diving PV into the Southwest, cut off the GOA High to the Pole, +EPO eventually, but maybe short A big -NAO is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Someone needs to check in on Ji after the 18z gfs. You can't draw up a more disastrous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just a little dif in the orientation of the EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 EPS is cold for Christmas Eve and day and I’m good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: EPS is cold for Christmas Eve and day and I’m good with that. DT says the GFS and GEFS are making the SE ridge stronger than it would be. Does the GFS have a bias with that or is he just sticking to his gut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: DT says the GFS and GEFS are making the SE ridge stronger than it would be. Does the GFS have a bias with that or is he just sticking to his gut? He is sticking to his gut...which is filled with EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Good news is, ridge is promptly destroyed following Christmas, which leads to cold pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I’m ok believing the Euro over the flaky GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, poolz1 said: He is sticking to his gut...which is filled with EPS Eps is on its own now. Geps/gefs have trended towards the ridge winning the christmas day battle. 18z gefs upped the ante. I'd be more than a little surprised if the eps holds overnight. I'm a little surprised DT is so bullish on the ridge caving. That goes against a lot of history. The nao is positive and we're in cold enso. Add in energy digging into the SW and a se ridge is supposed to happen. Models have rushed breaking down the ridge countless times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps is on its own now. Geps/gefs have trended towards the ridge winning the christmas day battle. 18z gefs upped the ante. I'd be more than a little surprised if the eps holds overnight. I'm a little surprised DT is so bullish on the ridge caving. That goes against a lot of history. The nao is positive and we're in cold enso. Add in energy digging into the SW and a se ridge is supposed to happen. Models have rushed breaking down the ridge countless times in the past. Soi is really tanking and proged to stay negative for a bit. That may tend to dampen the Nina effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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