RDM Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 57 minutes ago, gopper said: As a "Post less, Read more" participant of this forum, I want to give my sincere appreciation to those who have the knowledge and the ability to share insight in a manner that is understandable and fruitful to others reading. As a teacher, I appreciate those who make complicated atmospheric maps and concepts easier to understand. Posters like @showmethesnow, @Bob Chill, @psuhoffman, @mitchnick, @usedtobe and many other red taggers and hobbiest are the reason I find much pleasure in this weird hobby. The fact that meteorology is an inexact science keeps me intrigued much like an old man playing slots for hours at a time. So, thank you to all of those people who make this hobby so much fun. Oh, and a special thank you to Mr. Cold Meiser who is seemingly beating his brother up so far this year in the Mid-Atlantic. Well said - as a member here and on the forum before this one since 2002, I wholeheartedly share your thoughts. My relatively few posts belie a voracious consumption of the wisdom shared by the posters mentioned and many more. The unselfish dedication, lost sleep and eternal patience devoted by not only the posters, but their significant others is testimony to the depth of which our cursed affliction consumes us. I only hope the signs pointing to some excitement ahead afford us all many opportunities to learn more about how this cursed thing called weather works. The anticipation for uptick in activity projected 10+ days out is already interrupting my sleep. Had a dream last night of a triple phased BECS circa New Year's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Correct me if I am wrong... but it looks like the GFS is trying to phase on panel 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 It’s trying very hard for the phase. Regardless though, I’m really thinking we need more confluence over the northeast. That SE ridge is really flexing. 0z GFS was much better than 6 and now 12z in that regard. Would help keep high pressure locked into the north. The full phase scenario will not be pretty for anyone on the east coast, though could maybe help down the road if it really blows up into a monster storm over eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Not a great run.. Will be anxious to see the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Not a great run.. Will be anxious to see the ensembles 384 looks promising lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 57 minutes ago, Ji said: 384 looks promising lol The christmas deal is trending the wrong way. Warmer/rainier solutions are becoming more common and ensembles are going the wrong way as well. Makes sense unfortunately. The SE ridge (although transient) looks to be real and those kind of features almost always take longer to get rid of than we want. The only reason that d10 and under is a bummer if it rains is because of the holiday. Down the line looks really good across the board. Hopefully a legit med range threat is in view if we get stuck on the wrong side of the boundary for Christmas. That will soften the blow somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z gefs is a reality check type of run for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The christmas deal is trending the wrong way. Warmer/rainier solutions are becoming more common and ensembles are going the wrong way as well. Makes sense unfortunately. The SE ridge (although transient) looks to be real and those kind of features almost always take longer to get rid of than we want. The only reason that d10 and under is a bummer if it rains is because of the holiday. Down the line looks really good across the board. Hopefully a legit med range threat is in view if we get stuck on the wrong side of the boundary for Christmas. That will soften the blow somewhat. Christmas looked better a week ago. Now looks worse. After Christmas looks good now..beyond 10 days...no faith it won’t look worse eventually. SER is stubborn so could be more than days to clear it. It’s been a chilly December with a little snow..nothing more and nothing yet to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I am down with a New Year’s Eve/day hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Christmas looked better a week ago. Now looks worse. After Christmas looks good now..beyond 10 days...no faith it won’t look worse eventually. SER is stubborn so could be more than days to clear it. It’s been a chilly December with a little snow..nothing more and nothing yet to remember I've been pretty much expecting it. It's always been a thread the needle and not a typical snow pattern. This December has already outperformed over 80% of Decembers on record at the airports so I'm not sure I agree with your last line. May not satisfy the hunger we have but up against history it's been a very good month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 We'll see if he changes his opinion soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 If anything the SE ridge is setting up for a big cold wave after it recedes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 There's no precip for like the next 7 days... what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: There's no precip for like the next 7 days... what happened? Euro looks nothing like gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: If anything the SE ridge is setting up for a big cold wave after it recedes i don't think that's always a lock if the air mass moderates. hoping this doesn't turn into a GL cutter (or apps runner) winter. so far it hasn't, but we'll see. looks like a calm period (which is normal) before the interesting stuff starts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks nothing like gfs.... Completely dropped the SW ULL idea. For better or for worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks nothing like gfs.... Completely dropped the SW ULL idea. For better or for worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Completely dropped the SW ULL idea. For better or for worse... If this was any other time we would be ridiculed for talking specifics about day 9 but because its Christmas...it feels like we're 48 hours away lol and the mood swings are out of control with all these dramatic changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Euro out to 168 Going forward, PV would off over the SW, Alaska cuts north to become -AO. PacificJet overtakes northern US. This is a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Completely dropped the SW ULL idea. For better or for worse... Better.....than the gfs at least. Zero line Christmas morning in Southern suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I just don't see it happening. These are some big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: The christmas deal is trending the wrong way. Warmer/rainier solutions are becoming more common and ensembles are going the wrong way as well. Makes sense unfortunately. The SE ridge (although transient) looks to be real and those kind of features almost always take longer to get rid of than we want. The only reason that d10 and under is a bummer if it rains is because of the holiday. Down the line looks really good across the board. Hopefully a legit med range threat is in view if we get stuck on the wrong side of the boundary for Christmas. That will soften the blow somewhat. what the hell is happening with the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks nothing like gfs.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 DT keeping hopes up I see why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Okay folks, I realize I guzzled wayyyyyy too much beer last night in the cool weather. Did I overdo the beer, or is this forum screwed up? These colors are horrific lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: I am down with a New Year’s Eve/day hecs. GFS 384 looks a lot like February 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Lol board upgrade. Euro phased the pre holiday storm into a significant cutter. It's an option. Too slow with the boundary to save Christmas. Don't want to overanalyze d8+ ops but I didn't like the run at all. The only reason we got fantasy slush is because the trailing wave was weak as a kitten. If it amped up just a little we would have been on the wrong side. I'm still not seeing any good trends for the boundary getting clear by Christmas day. Hopefully the eps drops a cookie there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 EPS still has a chilly Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Eps throwing conflicting signals. Shows the cold making it faster but backed way off with frozen solutions. I'll look at the members later but the conflict is prob mostly due to the wet solutions being warm and the cold ones dry. Fits the pattern unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol board upgrade. Euro phased the pre holiday storm into a significant cutter. It's an option. Too slow with the boundary to save Christmas. Don't want to overanalyze d8+ ops but I didn't like the run at all. The only reason we got fantasy slush is because the trailing wave was weak as a kitten. If it amped up just a little we would have been on the wrong side. I'm still not seeing any good trends for the boundary getting clear by Christmas day. Hopefully the eps drops a cookie there Wonder if this will be one of those strange cases where the Alamanc scores? (yes, I said it ). It literally says verbatim for Christmas Day: "storm cuts inland", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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