BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's probably the least likely type of outcome and the gefs does not agree at all. I liked the speed of the front. Faster is definitely better in this setup. Our biggest risk by far imho is rain/warm and not dry/chilly. 0z will prob rain on us. Lol. Of course it will now that you said that. Yes the GEFS looks much less progressive. Somewhere in the middle might be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 You can tell how split the GEFS is by looking at the snow totals for the individual members 8/20 members show 6"+ of snow, while 7/20 show less than 2". Only 5/20 are in between. IMO I would take the control any day. 70 degrees and sun looks basically impossible to reach on Christmas. Most likely is a mix in between 30-40 degrees if precip is falling methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: You can tell how split the GEFS is by looking at the snow totals for the individual members 8/20 members show 6"+ of snow, while 7/20 show less than 2". Only 5/20 are in between. IMO I would take the control any day. 70 degrees and sun looks basically impossible to reach on Christmas. Most likely is a mix in between 30-40 degrees if precip is falling methinks. E4, E8 or E 18 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: You can tell how split the GEFS is by looking at the snow totals for the individual members 8/20 members show 6"+ of snow, while 7/20 show less than 2". Only 5/20 are in between. IMO I would take the control any day. 70 degrees and sun looks basically impossible to reach on Christmas. Most likely is a mix in between 30-40 degrees if precip is falling methinks. We'all see my friend if 70 is off the table. 0z could be wonky. It's Friday. Me thinks 70 is not happening also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: E4, E8 or E 18 please No love for E14, E2, E1, or E11? Honestly I'd take about 12/20 of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: No love for E14, E2, E1, or E11? Honestly I'd take about 12/20 of those E1 and E2 are okay. I'd like a warning criteria event, a la 6 -10" for everyone including Wes that doesn't require me to work. Any Christmas snow of 5"+ is a 10/10 event in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: E1 and E2 are okay. I'd like a warning criteria event, a la 6 -10" for everyone including Wes that doesn't require me to work. Any Christmas snow of 5"+ is a 10/10 event in my opinion. Any Christmas Snow of 2" or more would make a winter. For a regular event not near the 3 days of Christmas to make a winter, it would probably have to be 8" or more IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Any Christmas Snow of 2" or more would make a winter. For a regular event not near the 3 days of Christmas to make a winter, it would probably have to be 8" or more IMO Gotta have the grass disappear and the roads whiten to the point you can't see the lane markers. Then it's a legit snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gotta have the grass disappear and the roads whiten to the point you can't see the lane markers. Then it's a legit snowfall. Looking back at the Blizzard of 2016 always gives me a happy feeling. Those storms that last a long duration are amazing. I remember looking at the HRRR through 3am, and it had points West of DC with 1' of snow accumulation, and of course there was still 18 hours of snowfall left. I'm sure we'll experience one of those types of events within 4 years. Events like that where everything initially sticks are perfect. Nothing hurts as much as waiting for snow to make the ground cold enough to support accumulation. Some of our storms bust just because of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Looking back at the Blizzard of 2016 always gives me a happy feeling. Those storms that last a long duration are amazing. I remember looking at the HRRR through 3am, and it had points West of DC with 1' of snow accumulation, and of course there was still 18 hours of snowfall left. I'm sure we'll experience one of those types of events within 4 years The 2016 event was a huge disappointment to me on so many levels but we can take that discussion to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 2016 event was a huge disappointment to me on so many levels but we can take that discussion to the banter thread. I'm guessing you mean since the models had astronomically high totals forecast and we got just typical "HECS" totals. I feel ya. If the HRRR was right, MBY would've probably gotten 30" of snow. I measured 25.5" (minus compaction, so probably closer to 27" or maybe 28"), but it's still hard to be disappointed by big storms. Jumping off my deck into a huge snow drift is one of the best memories I've had in recent years. So much snow even your dogs don't know what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: E1 and E2 are okay. I'd like a warning criteria event, a la 6 -10" for everyone including Wes that doesn't require me to work. Any Christmas snow of 5"+ is a 10/10 event in my opinion. you've come a long way from your 30" or bust stuff of the past. keepin it real....mass bueno. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Im at 144 on TT and am anxious for the next few panels... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: you've come a long way from your 30" or bust stuff of the past. keepin it real....mass bueno. Nut I've just given up is all. I look for high societal impact events and I know that I will have to move well out of the area to see that. Hopefully soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I've just given up is all. I look for high societal impact events and I know that I will have to move well out of the area to see that. Hopefully soon. Whistler bud....whistler.... LMK when you get there, so i have a place to squat. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 and while we wait for the christmas miracle, i've been puttin a few back....but please tell me y'all's screens look wonky like mine does?? if not, no more Kirkland grade hooch..... (actually its great stuff....tried it for first time). cant blame it for what I'm seeing..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and while we wait for the christmas miracle, i've been puttin a few back....but please tell me y'all's screens look wonky like mine does?? if not, no more Kirkland grade hooch..... (actually its great stuff....tried it for first time). cant blame it for what I'm seeing..... Nut New update screwed everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 look at SC Texas at 180 (pun intended).....what the frick.... My mother in law that winters is in SE Texas will blame it on me if she gets snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 yeah, early call is that the continuation to speed up the trough pre christmas continues...just need to see if we can get the bugger in TX to run the chute up to us.... and at 204 i really like what i see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 man this looks good at 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just dont look at 500's and focus on surface if you want to have sweet dreams tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Me thinks ice....not snow...but man do i hope I'm wrong. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Me thinks ice....not snow...but man do i hope I'm wrong. Nut The maps are pretty to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I imagine if that event happened exactly the way the GFS forecast it, it would lead to some happy people in this forum. 24 hour event, doesn't go to rain, a quick 6" of snow before tons of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm excited about our Christmas chances but it's still wayyyy out there but midweek has my attention . Eps had several members give us frozen. And Gfs just made a big move toward the op euro with the vort track. ..Euro showed a near miss at 12z Gfs was faster again with the important boundary making it trough. This can only help with whatever it is or isn't making a run at us. I'll admit the gfs sucked me in a little in the med range. Column is close enough and it was a big shift. Interesting year. Things keep trending colder and better as leads shorten. That happens like never and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I imagine if that event happened exactly the way the GFS forecast it, it would lead to some happy people in this forum. 24 hour event, doesn't go to rain, a quick 6" of snow before tons of sleet. But wait, theres more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: But wait, theres more! As depicted...epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Of course the cmc shows what we don't want to happen....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Would be a memorable ice storm for DC and points South. Of course it won't happen like this, this this thread is basically also the Digital Snow/Sleet/Any wintry weather thread, so here it is I imagine this would be a very memorable storm. Sadly, there's still 10 days for this storm to go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: As depicted...epic. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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