Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Kuchera ratio for Euro is even more impressive. Too bad it's 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:21 PM, Cobalt said: Kuchera ratio for Euro is even more impressive. Too bad it's 10 days out Expand has the look of what the blizzard of 96 was progged to be early on suppression was a big concern initially (not that it is suppressed, just centered to our south with a cold powder storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:06 PM, Amped said: Remember yesterdays 240hr look? WHy would anyone take today's seriously? Expand because snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:30 PM, mappy said: because snow Expand You may wanna post the Kuchera totals. Looks much more impressive since ratios would be 10-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:32 PM, Cobalt said: You may wanna post the Kuchera totals. Looks much more impressive since ratios would be 10-15:1 Expand its a 240hr snow map, it doesn't matter what i post. come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:33 PM, mappy said: its a 240hr snow map, it doesn't matter what i post. come on. Expand Yes, but as you said, because snow. This baby is already 100% locked in. Obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:34 PM, Cobalt said: Yes, but as you said, because snow. This baby is already 100% locked in. Obviously Expand yes, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Still strong signal on EPS for next week's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 EPS supports the southern track for the late next week event. It's a textbook setup for a moderate event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just saw the GEFS individual snow maps. LOL some big hits on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:43 PM, Cobalt said: Still strong signal on EPS for next week's event Expand see, I guess that's my problem with the ensembles....an inch and a half is not a strong signal to me at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:47 PM, mitchnick said: see, I guess that's my problem with the ensembles....an inch and a half is not a strong signal to me at all Expand 24 hours maps suck at capturing timing differences. There's a lot of support here Mitch. The MSLP panels tell the real story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:47 PM, mitchnick said: see, I guess that's my problem with the ensembles....an inch and a half is not a strong signal to me at all Expand It’s actually 4”+ if you go through the 31st (total for the time period). Considering its basically nothing through the 25th, that’s a good signal for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:47 PM, mitchnick said: see, I guess that's my problem with the ensembles....an inch and a half is not a strong signal to me at all Expand It's probably just that not all members show initial cold or don't show the cold air winning. Also why it shows 3-4" of snow in New England Also, that's just 24 hours. It adds 3.5" to the snowfall mean for DC To Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This is a pretty panel for MA snowstorms. Blocking, confluence, 50/50. This is how we score and the NE is left out. Only 9 days to go 10! Less than 10 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Look at the pattern, not the maps 8 days out. Models will botch the snowfall somewhere 24hrs out we don't need day 7-10 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:51 PM, Cobalt said: It's probably just that not all members show initial cold or don't show the cold air winning. Also why it shows 3-4" of snow in New England Also, that's just 24 hours. It adds 3.5" to the snowfall mean for DC To Expand OK, that I'll go with now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Hmmmm, do I want February 2003 or February 2010........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:51 PM, Bob Chill said: This is a pretty panel for MA snowstorms. Blocking, confluence, 50/50. This is how we score and the NE is left out. Only 9 days to go 10! Less than 10 days! Expand Wow that’s hawt. Maybe not quite KU hawt, but definitely SECSy or MECSy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:52 PM, Amped said: Look at the pattern, not the maps 8 days out. Models will botch the snowfall somewhere 24hrs out we don't need day 7-10 maps. Expand Agreed. One of the worst things to be put out for weather models are snow maps. I wish we could turn the clock back a few years to when they didn't exist. To make it even worse than it already is....the algorithms on some (wxbell in particular) are flawed and dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:46 PM, WxUSAF said: Just saw the GEFS individual snow maps. LOL some big hits on there. Expand Yeah, some were huge hits lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 PLaying around with the EPS probability maps on weather.us and I like seeing a >25% of 1” or more through NYE as far south as northern GA and northern MS. For S&G, DC is at >25% chance for 6”+ through NYE and our northern tier is greater than 30%. Not focused on amounts at this range, but I like that signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Decent pattern, will need to be watched. The highs are a little far north but not too bad. The improvement over yesterday is less troffing in the southwest. A flat flow is kind of like a seesaw and any troff that digs across the southwest can pump up the southeast ridge. There's only so much of it the 50/50 low can stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:53 PM, osfan24 said: Hmmmm, do I want February 2003 or February 2010........... Expand Be careful what you wish for. No picking or choosing this far out. Before we know it, we'll either all be in rain, or everyone South of us will be measuring their snow in feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:59 PM, yoda said: Yeah, some were huge hits lol Expand Care to post for us non-WxBell users ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 8:05 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Care to post for us non-WxBell users ? Expand I got it for you Half of e12's snow total is from a Christmas event, so that's more of a dream scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Another way to view the ensembles. This is just for DC, but it gives you a sense of the spread in timing that's still on the table past the 25th. It's a pattern with good potential, but also a lot of chances for rain. Of course areas north and west would do better with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Couple of lows clustered together. Good signal once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 8:19 PM, Cobalt said: Couple of lows clustered together. Good signal once again Expand Yes indeed, nice signal... I'll take the 979mb SLP to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 7:56 PM, WxUSAF said: Wow that’s hawt. Maybe not quite KU hawt, but definitely SECSy or MECSy. Expand I’m looking for my long lost friend BECSy. Let me know when you find her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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