yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 3:41 PM, clskinsfan said: 12Z 3K NAM is close to getting precip into the area for the Wednesday night/Thursday event. It is at the end of the run. But something to watch at least. Expand GFS has some very light QPF... but it looks like rain even if it does reach us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that precip end up further north. Temps look marginal at best though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GFS thorugh 120 slower w/ the trough....not the right way we wanted this to go for pre christmas lovin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that precip end up further north. Temps look marginal at best though. Expand Agreed. If it was snow it would be white rain. But with the way things have trended better on the models so far this year. I am not giving up on anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 486DM heights in NE ND at 138 on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Front still clear by Christmas Eve. Trough isn’t completely bottled in SW. Still ok I would say through 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Woah... PV dropping into N Plains at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Back to the light rain east of 81, snow for the mountains this run Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just on the wrong side at 162-168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS is a Merry Christmas out here. But living right on the edge. Going to be a busy week watching how fast that front progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 wow...this IS going to be a long week. Just need upper levels to continue to nudge south, but 12z didnt do that. Still plenty of time. Nice to see something to track....and not in flip flops n short shorts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just a slightly stronger push to the east of the baroclinic zone with the system on the 23/24th would have made a Christmas miracle for the east coast. Still lots of time for positive trends in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 From a Christmas cheer point of view, I’m ok with 35F rain over sunny and 70. GFS solution is very new but it’s believable that the front takes a couple tries to totally push through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Transition to a short wave length/amplified pattern is wreaking havoc as you go out in time. Every run should present a new look for the holiday. SE ridge still winning more often than not unfortunately. Something needs to kick that thing to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:31 PM, Bob Chill said: Transition to a short wave length/amplified pattern is wreaking havoc as you go out in time. Every run should present a new look for the holiday. SE ridge still winning more often than not unfortunately. Something needs to kick that thing to the east. Expand I thought the PV (or at least a piece of it) would have done it looking at 150. There were 486DM thickness in the N Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Lol there’s almost no point in looking at anything past D7. Just wild inconsistency with a very challenging pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 CMC now brings the front through Christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z Ukmet looks like a much more stout SE ridge at the end of its run (144) compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:44 PM, mitchnick said: CMC now brings the front through Christmas day Expand I like the 1050+ H cruising into the US and backbuilding into Canada at 240 ETA: Look at those 2mT... -35 to -40 in ND and MN and NE MT and NW WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 So CMC is better /progressive and Ukie is making a WAR of this whole shebangy. Wonderful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:46 PM, pasnownut said: So CMC is better /progressive and Ukie is making a WAR of this whole shebangy. Wonderful.... Expand CMC was the laggard up until this run, so that's a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:41 PM, yoda said: I thought the PV (or at least a piece of it) would have done it looking at 150. There were 486DM thickness in the N Plains Expand It's the meat of a ridge sandwich and very amplified on both sides. Trough will crawl east with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GFS tries for a YUGE arctic blast at the end of its run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:31 PM, Bob Chill said: Transition to a short wave length/amplified pattern is wreaking havoc as you go out in time. Every run should present a new look for the holiday. SE ridge still winning more often than not unfortunately. Something needs to kick that thing to the east. Expand I'll do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:48 PM, mitchnick said: CMC was the laggard up until this run, so that's a positive. Expand Very true, it was the Euro and the CMC against others , the upcoming Euro run will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:48 PM, Bob Chill said: It's the meat of a ridge sandwich and very amplified on both sides. Trough will crawl east with this setup. Expand maybe not a flake of snow but it should be cloudy rainy and cooling as the day progresses I would think. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:50 PM, yoda said: 12z GFS tries for a YUGE arctic blast at the end of its run lol Expand A large chunk of the country is at or below zero at hr 384 2mT... not that we should really care, but 12z GGEM had the same idea at the end of its run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GEFS basically shifted lock step with the op. It's either locking in or doing the thing about ens not having much spread inside of 8 days. My guess is the latter. I don't think anything is locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 5:19 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS basically shifted lock step with the op. It's either locking in or doing the thing about ens not having much spread inside of 8 days. My guess is the latter. I don't think anything is locked in. Expand Yeah they’re close but the devil is in the nitnoid details. GEFS has a low farther offshore on Xmas which would probably give us a miracle storm, but razors edge sort of situation. Lots of spread (obvs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.