Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:07 PM, Bob Chill said: Looks like the 26th is the transition day on this run. Expand Is 34/33 etc. the high temperatures? Pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:08 PM, Cobalt said: Is 34/33 etc. the high temperatures? Pretty cold Expand Looks like it with 50 perturbed members. Even the members are perturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:08 PM, Cobalt said: Is 34/33 etc. the high temperatures? Pretty cold Expand No doubt. For a d10+ ens mean it doesn't get much colder in these parts. Some of the sub zero readings in the upper mw later this week are going to be insane. Mean precip during the cold period for us is around .3-.4. Gotta hope we avoid cold and dry. I think we're probably seeing the outer limit of how much time it takes to get the front through here. Prob won't happen on Christmas but still within the realm. 26-27th seems reasonable. Don't think it will lag much beyond that (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sing it with me! So this is Christmas and what have you done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:21 PM, Bob Chill said: No doubt. For a d10+ ens mean it doesn't get much colder in these parts. Some of the sub zero readings in the upper mw later this week are going to be insane. Mean precip during the cold period for us is around .3-.4. Gotta hope we avoid cold and dry. I think we're probably seeing the outer limit of how much time it takes to get the front through here. Prob won't happen on Christmas but still within the realm. 26-27th seems reasonable. Don't think it will lag much beyond that (hopefully). Expand On 12/17/2017 at 9:23 PM, Scraff said: Sing it with me! So this is Christmas and what have you done... Expand That made me smile...and I am not in the mood to smile but it happened anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 7:15 PM, Cobalt said: Honestly, what the GFS shows is kind of tolerable. 40s isn't the end of the world. The Euro on the other hand... Expand I'd take nice and warm over cold and dry any day if that's how it's gonna be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 DT still doesn't like the GFS even though the Euro caved (he probably thinks these are fluke runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:33 PM, Cobalt said: DT still doesn't like the GFS even though the Euro caved (he probably thinks these are fluke runs) Expand What did that crusty forecaster say about a 240 hr Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I feel like there should be an Almanac thread to track how many times it scores...because it looks like it's gonna nail Christmas to a T (there is gonna be rain, right?) It said "unseasonably mild" for Christmas, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GFS at 42hr and actually some big changes vs 12z 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Looks like 18z GFS is gonna be slightly better than 12z. Looks worse than 6z, but better than 18z at bringing the cold air in from West to East. Not to the 25th yet, but the cold air is slightly farther East on the 22nd compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 What an awesome pattern coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 We finally get a run that backs off inatead of strengthening the SER. I would sell all my kids' Christmas presents to get a pressing hp to the north on Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 This is the future blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 10:34 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Let’s hope you’re right that 12z was rock bottom and we dilly dilly ourselves of the pit of misery this week. Expand Feels like it doesn't it? Maybe we can back into something as the strong front comes through. That part is far from resolved. Would be nice to score even just 1" right before we get 3-4 days of sub freezing temps. Some -20 stuff showing up in the upper midwest. If that's even close to real....and we have an inch of snow on ground when the core of the cold hits...it's possible we could score an elusive sub zero reading in Dec. I don't know the last time that happened in Dec. Gym would know. Hopefully he reads this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Imagine how memorable this December would be if we hit 70 degrees on the 24th or 25th, and then got a sub zero reading at one of the airports the following week? Could be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 If JB tweeted about 18z...."18z GFS comes around to our thinking..expect continued east adjustment of arctic front with snow chances and convective feedback issues with 12z runs resolved.. Yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GEFS looks farther East with the SE ridge as well. Not a whole lot more East, but it fits with the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 10:56 PM, losetoa6 said: 93 /94 winter? I remember the last week of Dec 93 being real cold but I could be wrong Expand It was. Front with a serious snow,squall Christmas night. Then nice little 2-4 inch event on I believe the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Stop chasing snow. Pray for 45 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:09 PM, PhineasC said: Stop chasing snow. Pray for 45 degrees... Expand And rain. Makes iit feel almost like snow without the white part or the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 A day just like today is completely acceptable. Rain and 45 as well. As long as it's dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:13 PM, losetoa6 said: Nice memory for the details . And that cold built into January with a vengeance. 94 is my cold benchmark. Expand Yes it was tremendous. Remarkable January. So close to to major snow as well. We were about 30 miles to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GEFS is everything we want to see in improvements. SE ridge is smaller on Christmas day as compared to 12z, and the cold gets pushed out on the 26th faster than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:23 PM, Cobalt said: 18z GEFS is everything we want to see in improvements. SE ridge is smaller on Christmas day as compared to 12z, and the cold gets pushed out on the 26th faster than the 12z. Expand Still 8 days until the 25th..you never know what could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18z GEFS 7 day precip anomaly from Christmas through New Years Day is ‘normal’ (i.e. we’re within the -0.5 to +0.5 area). I’d like to see us in the + precip departures to time the precip better but at least the cold looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:05 PM, HighStakes said: It was. Front with a serious snow,squall Christmas night. Then nice little 2-4 inch event on I believe the 27th. Expand The snow squall was serious indeed. But even more serious was the traffic nightmare than followed late Christmas night. The region was paralyzed like that inch of snow a couple of years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:21 PM, losetoa6 said: Man...gefs mid next week has the core cold really get us flush Expand Maybe it will have a squall with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:29 PM, losetoa6 said: I believe we had a high only to 0 F - 3F on 1 or 2 days in Jan. The ice had INCREDIBLE Staying power. Nothing melted Expand Those ice storms are my bench mark for ice. The ice storms people hype now are a joke compared to those monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:53 PM, losetoa6 said: I'll never forget the 5-6" inch sleet storm . And one storm it rained at 17 -18 F ..brutal ice ..crazy stuff man Expand That winter was unbelievable. I was able to ice skate on the back yard that January from all of the ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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