AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Since 1948, there has never been 10mb Polar Vortex as displaced anomaly wise (strength-distance from northpole) as the last few weeks. This really far south, and all 206 events that have happened never centered so far south in North America. I also found a pattern in the last 4-5 years with how 10mb pattern evolved that was much different from all years before. It's hard to explain, but an example is before you would have an 85% chance of a switch after a 40-60 day event.. now it takes a break for 7-10 days, kind of comes back, wanes, etc. Outer part of this anomaly all the way down to Southwest, US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 It's also a dominant center at 500mb... would be hard to make a case for La Nina effecting things unless you tie it into the Stratophere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Stratosphere warming happening now. The peak anomaly only ever maxes out 1200-1800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 About the same time in 2012 is the only other Canadian-centered negative anomaly, making as far south as the Southwest, US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Most likely there is the arctic temperature gradient connection (Arctic Ice melt). Large regions of ice free water cause the PV to settle over colder interiors. This thread probably belongs here and also in the climate change forum. The connection with 2012 is interesting and uncanny (Lowest sea ice extent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Stratosphere warming to continue through late December. Since 1948, there have been 19 years with similar conditions. How the pattern unfolds the following January-February at 500mb is a nice wave pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Animate 00z GFS, strong lows spinning around south of Greenland. 960mb to 1020mb in 1000 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Legitimate Stratosphere Warming through Dec 22, to begin. A few models have it lasting through January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 what does this mean for sensible weather in Kansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Will not qualify as a warming, so I really doubt this is what is driving the AO and the EPO ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 Very strong warming at 10mb. Positive is the dominant wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 +wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 I'm nailing this one! -NAO mid-January, must have said it 15 times. Models have trended nicely in this direction, with a nice 4-wave PV split. I expected more -AO/NAO trend in the next few days, in verification, this could be much greater an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 23, 2018 Author Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 1/7/2018 at 7:09 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I'm nailing this one! -NAO mid-January, must have said it 15 times. Models have trended nicely in this direction, with a nice 4-wave PV split. I expected more -AO/NAO trend in the next few days, in verification, this could be much greater an anomaly. Oh those were such simple times. Check out this Stratosphere warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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