Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Love these last second nickels and dimes . 1-3” is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Love these last second nickels and dimes . 1-3” is great Hopefully it isn't just virga or flurries. I'd feel ok if I was down on the south coast....but you'll have a shot. Maybe even up here I'll get something, but that area from DXR to GON looks like the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 i like the beefy looking DGZ. I'm thinking 1-3" for S CT... and coating-1" for N CT. Also... watch for some Sound Effect Enhancement on south coast? Hires models have been hinting at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully it isn't just virga or flurries. I'd feel ok if I was down on the south coast....but you'll have a shot. Maybe even up here I'll get something, but that area from DXR to GON looks like the best chance. I’m planning on 1-2” I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 You also wonder if the Fri nite snow might show up again last minute more robust and north? These systems love to do that in these patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Looks like James may get some snow.... Good for him! Nothing like a bit of white this time of year. We still have solid cover in Worcester, so I'm not moaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yes, the models have come in north with the clipper once again, I would go with 2-4" on the Islands and 1-3" for the Cape and South Coast of New England, could change it to a more robust forecast if the models at 00z come in stronger and there is less dry air to deal with, I don't my area will deal with too much dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Also the 12z NAM has good lift in the DGZ for about a few hours after 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Watch a low level jet develop sometime tomorrow morning, could enhance snowfall rates some if any convection can develop and move into the area, sometimes the models have a hard time with this development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Snow compared to the 6 hour NAM 12z run depiction of radar shows a more moisture with the clipper than modeled. There is a lot of recent reports across the Great Lakes of moderate snowfall and some reports of heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Moderate snowfall over ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Will since Central MI is getting close to 8", why doesn't that rule of doubling our amounts work with this clipper system? Remember the NWS AFD discussion here during the Blizzard of 2005, one of the reasons they went with a large area of 24-30" of snow was because MI had already picked up 20" of fluff without taping into the Atlantic Ocean moisture reserve? Why can't the same thing happen here, we have a potent vort max, a strong redeveloping coastal storm that is north of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Central MI is forecasted to get 0.5"+ of liquid equivalent...it's not that huge of a deal if someone gets 8-10" there. That's classic 18 to 1 or 20 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Central MI is forecasted to get 0.5"+ of liquid equivalent...it's not that huge of a deal if someone gets 8-10" there. That's classic 18 to 1 or 20 to 1 ratios. If the clipper is actually going north of the benchmark and strengthening while passing it, why can't we see more moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I'm liking my location for this one. Anything would be great, I'd be happy with anything more than an inch as the snowpack is nearly completely wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I have a bare ground here, anything would be awesome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: If the clipper is actually going north of the benchmark and strengthening while passing it, why can't we see more moisture? Maybe you'll get lucky that far SE...but for most of us, we have the problem of moisture advection in the lower levels due to the confluent flow caused by yesterday's departing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Maybe you'll get lucky that far SE...but for most of us, we have the problem of moisture advection in the lower levels due to the confluent flow caused by yesterday's departing storm. Models tend to come northward with clippers as they over forecast the position of the vortex too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hoping to score an inch... we are pretty much bare after yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 JGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Models tend to come northward with clippers as they over forecast the position of the vortex too far south You sound like you are wishcasting. Clippers are generally pretty weak and don't have the convection that larger systems coming out of the south have to help bump them north compared to model expectations. There's a chance this one produces for your area, but no need to just throw out every anecdote that may not even be applicable to this system. Yeah, it might come north a little more...the models at 12z did...but it doesn't mean it will continue. As for Michigan, the heavy snow there is expected. It is not some huge surprise if people see 6"+ there or even pockets of 8-10. It doesn't necessarily say anything about what we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: to post so often... Put them into one post I have a lot to say Clipper is enhancing cloud tops cooling across VA Precip is filling in with that main band over MI Detroit MI could see 10"+ from this clipper 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You sound like you are wishcasting. Clippers are generally pretty weak and don't have the convection that larger systems coming out of the south have to help bump them north compared to model expectations. There's a chance this one produces for your area, but no need to just throw out every anecdote that may not even be applicable to this system. Yeah, it might come north a little more...the models at 12z did...but it doesn't mean it will continue. As for Michigan, the heavy snow there is expected. It is not some huge surprise if people see 6"+ there of even pockets of 8-10. It doesn't necessarily say anything about what we will see. I was just wondering given what the NWS discussion said for the Blizzard of 2005 that Saturday before the snow hit. Will I am sorry, I don't mean to wishcast, just trying to cover all angles of this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Some of the ARW members are quite juiced for the south coast. The SUNY SB WRF also has nearly 0.5" of liquid for BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Some of the ARW members are quite juiced for the south coast. The SUNY SB WRF also has nearly 0.5" of liquid for BDR. Ryan what about Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Back to reality from a 2005 name drop, HRRR looks very rich and gets better each run, a 2-4 along the south coast would not surprise me, some OES down there too. Its gotten less sheared today as yesterdays has pulled the confluence up father. Couple of things too, instant accumulations on all surfaces and roads will be slick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Back to reality, HRR looks very nich and gets better each run, a 2-4 along the south coast would not surprise me, some OES down there too. Its gotten less sheared today as yesterdays has puled the confluence up father. Couple of things too, instant accumulations on all surfaces and roads will be slick Almost nukes the thing at 18 hours... you can see much better moisture transport developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 28 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Precip is filling in with that main band over MI Detroit MI could see 10"+ from this clipper I haven't seen anyone predicting that amount for Detroit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, RobertSul said: I haven't seen anyone predicting that amount for Detroit... Models, .5" of liquid with 18:1 or 20:1 ratios could equal 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Almost nukes the thing at 18 hours... you can see much better moisture transport developing. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 NAM juicer too. Gonna be a lot of WTF’s tomorrow morning as this has not been well advertised or hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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