TheSnowman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Stats at KCNM (North Cumberland, RI) Seasons with Snow in November: 1995-1996: November - 2 Storms, 5" - Season Total - 113" 1996-1997: November - 1 Storm, 1" - Season Total - Only 49", But had the 30" April Fool's Day Storm. Arguably the Most impressive storm in our time. 2002-2003: November - 1 Storm, 6.5" - Season Total - 84" 2004-2005: November - 1 Storm, 6.5" - Season Total - 118.5" 2010-2011: November - 1 Storm, 1" - Season Total - 88.5" 2012-2013: November - 1 Storm, 2.25" - Season Total - 80" 2014-2015: November - 3 Tiny Storms, 3" - Season Total - 106.5" Seasons with Snow in November that turned out Average: 2005-2006 (But had the Historic December 9th, 2005 and the Blizzard of 2006) Seasons with No Snow in November that turned out Average: 2000-2001 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2003-2004 (21" Storm), 2007-2008 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2008-2009 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2009-2010 (Only 1 6" Storm (Was a drawn-out 18")), 2013-2014 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2016-2017 (Only 1 12" Storm) Seasons with NO Snow in November: 1997-1998: Season Total - 22" 1998-1999: Season Total - 35" 1999-2000: Season Total - 25" 2001-2002: Season Total - 25" 2006-2007: Season Total - 30" 2011-2012: Season Total - 25" 2015-2016: Season Total - 45" (February 5th was only worthy storm, and few got a 1 Foot) Somehow I never saw this. In all my time looking at my stats when I do before / after certain storms, or at the beginning of a season. The consistency for the past 22 seasons is alarming, and since I am only a Stat guy and No forecaster or Meteorologist or Climatologist, I'd like to ask you guys if there is some science to this, and WHY it is, becasue again; this correlation is dead nuts. Very simply put - When you get No Snow in November, you are Guaranteed a CRAP Winter. Even the 7 Seasons listed that came out around Average, had Nothing of note outside of the December 3-5 elongated storm in the 2003-2004 season which gave many 20"-30", but even so, the rest of the winter was complete Blah. But when you get even a SPIT of Snow in November, you are all of a sudden Guaranteed an AWESOME Winter, 90% chance of 80" or more, and if not, you'll get a Historic storm. 2005-2006 is the one Season that had snow in November but only ended up at average total, BUT had 12/98/05 and the Blizzard of 2006, which I'd take an average winter like that Every freaking year. So if you get Snow in November, you're going to Love the winter one way or another. Guaranteed. If you get No snow in November, you're screwed one way or another. Hence - What is it with this!?!? Discussssssssss...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is an even stronger correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Wow, you 2 guys are such a big help. Look at all that discussing and data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Must be an RI thing, as it's contra at my place. In 19 Novembers 1998-2016, the month averages 4.16" while winters run 89.15". Nov. SN Winter total 2" or less: 95.46" 6 of 9 were AN 2.1" to 6": 88.90" 3 of 6 AN Over 6": 75.35" 1 of 4 AN (14-15, my snowiest Novie with 17.0".) Only 0.1" this year, worsted only by 11/06 with just some traces. The winter following was 1/2 terrible but rescued by Feb,Mar and especially Apr, finishing at 95.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 10:32 AM, TheSnowman said: Wow, you 2 guys are such a big help. Look at all that discussing and data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/12/2017 at 1:45 PM, TheSnowman said: Stats at KCNM (North Cumberland, RI) Seasons with Snow in November: 1995-1996: November - 2 Storms, 5" - Season Total - 113" 1996-1997: November - 1 Storm, 1" - Season Total - Only 49", But had the 30" April Fool's Day Storm. Arguably the Most impressive storm in our time. 2002-2003: November - 1 Storm, 6.5" - Season Total - 84" 2004-2005: November - 1 Storm, 6.5" - Season Total - 118.5" 2010-2011: November - 1 Storm, 1" - Season Total - 88.5" 2012-2013: November - 1 Storm, 2.25" - Season Total - 80" 2014-2015: November - 3 Tiny Storms, 3" - Season Total - 106.5" Seasons with Snow in November that turned out Average: 2005-2006 (But had the Historic December 9th, 2005 and the Blizzard of 2006) Seasons with No Snow in November that turned out Average: 2000-2001 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2003-2004 (21" Storm), 2007-2008 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2008-2009 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2009-2010 (Only 1 6" Storm (Was a drawn-out 18")), 2013-2014 (Only 1 12" Storm), 2016-2017 (Only 1 12" Storm) Seasons with NO Snow in November: 1997-1998: Season Total - 22" 1998-1999: Season Total - 35" 1999-2000: Season Total - 25" 2001-2002: Season Total - 25" 2006-2007: Season Total - 30" 2011-2012: Season Total - 25" 2015-2016: Season Total - 45" (February 5th was only worthy storm, and few got a 1 Foot) Somehow I never saw this. In all my time looking at my stats when I do before / after certain storms, or at the beginning of a season. The consistency for the past 22 seasons is alarming, and since I am only a Stat guy and No forecaster or Meteorologist or Climatologist, I'd like to ask you guys if there is some science to this, and WHY it is, becasue again; this correlation is dead nuts. Very simply put - When you get No Snow in November, you are Guaranteed a CRAP Winter. Even the 7 Seasons listed that came out around Average, had Nothing of note outside of the December 3-5 elongated storm in the 2003-2004 season which gave many 20"-30", but even so, the rest of the winter was complete Blah. But when you get even a SPIT of Snow in November, you are all of a sudden Guaranteed an AWESOME Winter, 90% chance of 80" or more, and if not, you'll get a Historic storm. 2005-2006 is the one Season that had snow in November but only ended up at average total, BUT had 12/98/05 and the Blizzard of 2006, which I'd take an average winter like that Every freaking year. So if you get Snow in November, you're going to Love the winter one way or another. Guaranteed. If you get No snow in November, you're screwed one way or another. Hence - What is it with this!?!? Discussssssssss...... Let me give you a different perspective for SW CT: Year Pre-December snow Final seasonal total 08-09 T 43" 09-10 0 46" 10-11 T 71" 11-12 6" 18" 12-13 9.5" 69" 13-14 1" 66" 14-15 1" 68" 15-16 0 35" 16-17 T 48" Bottom line, we have had some good snow years of late. I unscientifically figure the average for Trumbull is about 40". There is no November correlation here over the past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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