NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Latest HRRR gets virga into D.C. I have a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Latest short run models all give DC area a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecacti Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, 87storms said: you know a threat is waning when there's 5-10 hours between posts. I've been theory-crafting a way to use post frequency on this forum via IFTTT to forecast snowfall in the next 24-48 hours... There are many times i'll check a thread on my phone and if it's been only 2 hours and 4 pages of posts, it's a safe bet we're getting 2+ inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Euro drops .02 through the region with the clipper so at least it's measurable. The 0z run didn't have much if anything. Maybe the little frontrunning leaf of WAA precip gives us something nice to watch out the window for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro drops .02 through the region with the clipper so at least it's measurable. The 0z run didn't have much if anything. Maybe the little frontrunning leaf of WAA precip gives us something nice to watch out the window for a time. RGEM also has measurable across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro drops .02 through the region with the clipper so at least it's measurable. The 0z run didn't have much if anything. Maybe the little frontrunning leaf of WAA precip gives us something nice to watch out the window for a time. 20-1 ratios gives us half an inch almost... dusting would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Euro also shows a nice dusting in CAPE'ville on Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 45 minutes ago, joecacti said: I've been theory-crafting a way to use post frequency on this forum via IFTTT to forecast snowfall in the next 24-48 hours... There are many times i'll check a thread on my phone and if it's been only 2 hours and 4 pages of posts, it's a safe bet we're getting 2+ inches... It's like crowdsourcing forecasts. Interesting idea. If [There aren't many posts in storm thread] then [don't stay up for the Euro] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro drops .02 through the region with the clipper so at least it's measurable. The 0z run didn't have much if anything. Maybe the little frontrunning leaf of WAA precip gives us something nice to watch out the window for a time. some of those super light/high ratio events can actually whiten the ground/roads, so maybe if we get 15 minutes of steady snow it'll look interesting tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, gymengineer said: RGEM also has measurable across the region. RGEM war. The high-res RGEM says we're getting half as many flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Probably not worth mentioning unless it continues the trend for a few hours, but the 18z hrrr brings some snow in before bedtime tonight and gives I 70 north something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Probably not worth mentioning unless it continues the trend for a few hours, but the 18z hrrr brings some snow in before bedtime tonight and gives I 70 north something to think about. Looks pretty decent for a couple of hours of light snowfall... not sure why it is suggesting rain at hours 6 and 7 at the southern most portion of the snow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Looks pretty decent for a couple of hours of light snowfall... not sure why it is suggesting rain at hours 6 and 7 at the southern most portion of the snow bandSeems to be using ground temps to decide if it's snowing or not... kinda odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks pretty decent for a couple of hours of light snowfall... not sure why it is suggesting rain at hours 6 and 7 at the southern most portion of the snow band For the reason it's suggesting snow.....it's not a good model! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 253 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>056-501-502-505- 506-140400- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 253 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON METRO AREAS FOR THURSDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Thursday morning commute. Light snow showers (with potential large impact due to sub-freezing roads) are POSSIBLE between 7pm and 4am tonight. There is a 40 percent chance for Washington, and a 60 percent chance for Baltimore. If there is accumulation, it is expected to be less than an inch. If this threat of light snow on frigid roads does materialize overnight, the Thursday morning rush-hour could quickly turn icy on untreated roads. This could lead to hazardous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Thursday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of travel disruptions and icy roads. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode. For more info on this type of threat, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIPWz1Y5p8w $$ STRONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 this feels like jan 25th,2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Weird day, how warm it got or something. will have to warm up to event again when it's dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Afternoon AFD from LWX about tonight... whats the EC model mentioned in the disco? The Euro? Tonight, this clipper will move by near or just north of the CWA, crossing eastward along or just north of the MD/PA state line. However, a warm front will advance northeast ahead of it, resulting in significant isentropic lift over our region. While surface air remains dry, the lift looks strong enough to generate some light snow across northern portions of the CWA, potentially reaching DC itself. Model guidance has shifted southward the southern extent of precip, so that while the operational NAM and GFS are still dry in DC, the operational global and regional Canadian, the HRRR, and EC all now bring measurable to DC itself. While the amounts will be light, generally less than 1 inch, and probably less than a half inch in DC if it occurs, with cold ground temps leading into it, the potential for icy/snow covered roads is elevated. Fortunately, nearly all guidance holds the precip back until after 7PM, so the bulk of the rush hour should stay dry, but as we head beyond 7PM the odds of encountering light snow increase significantly. The period of accumulation across the metro looks quite brief, accompanying the warm advection period this evening, and after midnight we should dry out by comparison. This can`t be said further northwest along the Allegheny Front, where upslope snow showers will continue through the night. Thus, the winter weather advisory for 2-4 inches remains in effect in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yoda, EC is the euro and it does show .02 qpf to the dc burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 [weenie hat on] the hrrr is not picking up on the waa precip currently going on in northern KY [weenie hat off] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: [weenie hat on] the hrrr is not picking up on the waa precip currently going on in northern KY [weenie hat off] Howard likes this (and Howard I’ve seen you lurking. Not being a deuce) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Why is Baltimore County putting brine on the roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why is Baltimore County putting brine on the roads? Superstition. If they brine it, it will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why is Baltimore County putting brine on the roads? Same reason Fairfax County did yesterday, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, mattie g said: Same reason Fairfax County did yesterday, probably. To waste taxpayers money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 East Prince William brined yesterday or the day before. These folks truly know the meaning of CYA. Guess who's paying the bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Snowing decent at Wisp and radar showing some returns getting ready to enter western VA. Just give me 30 minutes of snow to walk the dog in. That's not too much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Interstate said: To waste taxpayers money? I spun out the other day because my tires couldnt take the amount of salt pooled up on the road in fair lakes. 34 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 My how the mountains hate Alberta Clippers!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 58 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why is Baltimore County putting brine on the roads? they always do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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