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December 11 Week Event(s)


mitchnick

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2 hours ago, 87storms said:

you know a threat is waning when there's 5-10 hours between posts.

I've been theory-crafting a way to use post frequency on this forum via IFTTT to forecast snowfall in the next 24-48 hours...  There are many times i'll check a thread on my phone and if it's been only 2 hours and 4 pages of posts, it's a safe bet we're getting 2+ inches...  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro drops .02 through the region with the clipper so at least it's measurable. The 0z run didn't have much if anything. Maybe the little frontrunning leaf of WAA precip gives us something nice to watch out the window for a time. 

20-1 ratios gives us half an inch almost... dusting would be nice

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45 minutes ago, joecacti said:

I've been theory-crafting a way to use post frequency on this forum via IFTTT to forecast snowfall in the next 24-48 hours...  There are many times i'll check a thread on my phone and if it's been only 2 hours and 4 pages of posts, it's a safe bet we're getting 2+ inches...  

It's like crowdsourcing forecasts.  Interesting idea.

 

If [There aren't many posts in storm thread] then [don't stay up for the Euro]

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50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro drops .02 through the region with the clipper so at least it's measurable. The 0z run didn't have much if anything. Maybe the little frontrunning leaf of WAA precip gives us something nice to watch out the window for a time. 

some of those super light/high ratio events can actually whiten the ground/roads, so maybe if we get 15 minutes of steady snow it'll look interesting tomorrow morning.

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24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Probably not worth mentioning unless it continues the trend for a few hours, but the 18z hrrr brings some snow in before bedtime tonight and gives I 70 north something to think about. 

Looks pretty decent for a couple of hours of light snowfall... not sure why it is suggesting rain at hours 6 and 7 at the southern most portion of the snow band

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
253 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>056-501-502-505-
506-140400-
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore,
Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt,
Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
253 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE
BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON METRO AREAS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the
Thursday morning commute. Light snow showers (with potential large
impact due to sub-freezing roads) are POSSIBLE between 7pm and
4am tonight. There is a 40 percent chance for Washington, and a 60
percent chance for Baltimore. If there is accumulation, it is
expected to be less than an inch.

If this threat of light snow on frigid roads does materialize
overnight, the Thursday morning rush-hour could quickly turn icy
on untreated roads. This could lead to hazardous traveling
conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays.

If commuting Thursday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of
travel disruptions and icy roads. Plan ahead by allowing for
extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and
telework options.

Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.
For more info on this type of threat, see
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIPWz1Y5p8w

$$
STRONG
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Afternoon AFD from LWX about tonight... whats the EC model mentioned in the disco?  The Euro?

Tonight, this clipper will move by near or just north of the
CWA, crossing eastward along or just north of the MD/PA state
line. However, a warm front will advance northeast ahead of it,
resulting in significant isentropic lift over our region. While
surface air remains dry, the lift looks strong enough to
generate some light snow across northern portions of the CWA,
potentially reaching DC itself. Model guidance has shifted
southward the southern extent of precip, so that while the
operational NAM and GFS are still dry in DC, the operational
global and regional Canadian, the HRRR, and EC all now bring
measurable to DC itself. While the amounts will be light,
generally less than 1 inch, and probably less than a half inch
in DC if it occurs, with cold ground temps leading into it, the
potential for icy/snow covered roads is elevated.
Fortunately, nearly all guidance holds the precip back until
after 7PM, so the bulk of the rush hour should stay dry, but as
we head beyond 7PM the odds of encountering light snow increase
significantly.

The period of accumulation across the metro looks quite brief,
accompanying the warm advection period this evening, and after
midnight we should dry out by comparison. This can`t be said
further northwest along the Allegheny Front, where upslope snow
showers will continue through the night. Thus, the winter
weather advisory for 2-4 inches remains in effect in this
region.

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