Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Still passing to our north in S PA Yea, great slp but 100 miles too far north. Gotta hope the nne storm helps us force this thing under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, great slp but 100 miles too far north. Gotta hope the nne storm helps us force this thing under us Yup... the 00z runs have went the wrong direction from the 12z and 18z runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Yup... the 00z runs have went the wrong direction from the 12z and 18z runs today Still close enough. Trailing vort is slower. Hopefully it can amplify more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Fri/sat deal was closer to a decent event. Tried to make the southern stream connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 It was close... looks like 1-2" I-95 and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 00z GGEM has dusting for Thursday... maybe up to an inch on Saturday mainly from DC north, though possibly up to 2" northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Grinch-like Euro run with a dusting area wide over the next 10 days. Actually, the entire I-95 corridor is rather meh for the next 10 days according to the latest Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Even though the snowfall maps are not high on this period after looking over the runs I think we are just a small step or two from seeing a minor to possible somewhat moderate event for Saturday. We have been seeing an adjustment on the models with the trough in the east which is becoming more favorable for our region with the development of the low off the coast at that time. Changes on the models in regards to the trough are indicative that the models may be over playing the strength and progressiveness of the NS which we saw both models do with our previous system. If we see just a couple/few more small adjustments in weakening the NS I believe our region comes into play for possibly more then just a trace/inch type deal. And with this being 90 some hours there is plenty of time to see these adjustments. Especially considering we saw both the GFS and Euro making these adjustments (weakening of the NS) on the previous system into the 24-48 period of time. eta: Also keep an eye on our Thursday clipper. If the models are too strong with the NS as well with that feature then we may see a slowing down and better intensification. All of which would mean a stronger, slower low closer to the 50/50 region with the ability to back the flow somewhat for the low forming off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Well its nice to see a positive statement, after seeing the 6Z GFS I was a bit let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 RGEM gives us some light snowfall with a band of WAA in front of the clipper. Unfortunately guidance is converging on a track just a little too far north right now. Will need to see some sort of shift south today to feel better about prospects but the last 2-3 runs of everything have looked pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 on the 12z 12km NAM there does appear to be a band of snow that appears at hr 81 and 84 over N VA into MD fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 LWX has a decent disco from this morning in their AFD: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An Alberta clipper system will pass through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening before passing through our area overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. This system will bring a period of snow with it...but there is still some uncertainty as to exactly where with the gradient between accumulating snow vs. little or no snow setting up over our CWA. Typically with these systems...most of the snow falls north of the track of the surface low where the frontogenetical forcing and warm advection line up best. Latest guidance has the low tracking just south of the Mason-Dixon Line. This means that the best chance for snow will be near the Mason-Dixon line into Pennsylvania...and this has been reflected in the latest forecast. However...a slight shift southward and the accumulating snow will make it into the Metro areas and possibly points south. Therefore...this will have to be monitored closely over the next couple days. One other thing to note is that an upslope flow and cold advection behind the clipper system will cause snow showers for locations along/west of the Allegheny Front and accumulating snow is likely across these areas as well. The clipper system will pull away from the area later Thursday and high pressure will briefly build into the area Thursday night...bringing dry and chilly conditions. The high will move offshore Friday and an upper-level trough will swing through the area later Friday into Friday night. Latest guidance keeps the northern stream energy and southern stream energy separate. This means that a coastal low with the southern stream energy would move out to sea. However...some southern stream moisture may still get drawn into the area ahead of the trough axis...and this would result in a period of snow or rain/snow mix. Will continue to monitor...because it may affect the evening rush across most areas. Also...should these systems phase a bit sooner than expected that would have a significant impact on the forecast with more significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yoda, nam was showing stream interaction and that's why precip was breaking out. It's not a phase but the streams are working together instead of being completely separate. GFS is supportive of something similar. It's really close to a light/mod event and this is something that can shift quick at shorter leads. We'll see where we stand once the timing differences between the models tightens up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Surprised nobody posted the JMA. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Surprised nobody posted the JMA. LOL I would be excited if it wasn’t the JMA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Not sure if this thread is for obs or is it just model discussion? It’s 45 and light rain here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wdavis5784 said: I would be excited if it wasn’t the JMA.... Yea, I'll admit that it isn't looking good across the main globals but too early to call it one way or the other. We usually need wiggle room to the south at this point so previous events favor a track too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 .03 could cause some serious havoc on the freezaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM gives us some light snowfall with a band of WAA in front of the clipper. Unfortunately guidance is converging on a track just a little too far north right now. Will need to see some sort of shift south today to feel better about prospects but the last 2-3 runs of everything have looked pretty much the same. 12z RGEM gives us basically nothing through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 12z RGEM gives us nothing through 48 Yea, nothing breaking our way on the clipper right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, nothing breaking our way on the clipper right now. Guess its time to focus on the Fri-Sat chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yoda, nam was showing stream interaction and that's why precip was breaking out. It's not a phase but the streams are working together instead of being completely separate. GFS is supportive of something similar. It's really close to a light/mod event and this is something that can shift quick at shorter leads. We'll see where we stand once the timing differences between the models tightens up That’s a pretty nice shot Bob. Not going to take much more interaction to get an advisory type event in these parts. Something tells me we may not have a better idea until later tomorrow as the focus will be what happens with the first disturbance. A little more amplification of the northern stream and bingo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, MillvilleWx said: That’s a pretty nice shot Bob. Not going to take much more interaction to get an advisory type event in these parts. Something tells me we may not have a better idea until later tomorrow as the focus will be what happens with the first disturbance. A little more amplification of the northern stream and bingo. . It's a shame that the SS isn't all juiced up. All it does is enhance the northern stream enough to potentially give us some precip. The good thing is just yesterday and the day before the 2 streams looked completely separate on most guidance. Now they are trying to work together. If there's one thing the last event taught us, complicated setups can move around a lot at short leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 It's a shame that the SS isn't all juiced up. All it does is enhance the northern stream enough to potentially give us some precip. The good thing is just yesterday and the day before the 2 streams looked completely separate on most guidance. Now they are trying to work together. If there's one thing the last event taught us, complicated setups can move around a lot at short leads. That’s why I’m think it’s not going to be until later tomorrow into Thursday we’ll have a better handle on what’s to come. It’s right on that cusp of being something good. This is literally all you could ask for this early in season. Last few December’s were just terrible. Good to track things this go around. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Surprised nobody posted the JMA. LOL Ukie leads the way again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Doesn't look like 12z GFS is going to do anything for us on Friday/Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Doesn't look like 12z GFS is going to do anything for us on Friday/Sat How is it looking for those northerners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Doesn't look like 12z GFS is going to do anything for us on Friday/Sat It's really anemic and has the wave way offshore, does give us a dusting....no real snow. Sadly, we have to hang our hats on the GGEM. That the Euro and GFS and the Euro ensembles look meh or worse and we're hoping for the NAM and GGEM to lead the way is sad. Possible but is bucking the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: How is it looking for those northerners? Zero really... maybe a slight chance at a dusting if lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 CMC says wait a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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