PDIII Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Both the Euro and the GFS show the low blowing up to sub 990 low off the coast of Maine at hour 120. The GFS begins to develop the low pressure system at hour 102 right along the north carolina coast. I cant see what happens between 96 and 120 on the euro.. but I guess, based on what others have posted above.. that it is not much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Nothing much from the Thursday clipper for most of the region per 12z EURO... looks like the transfer robs most of us of any chance for flakes It was close enough for sure. Decent vort pass. Keep the track favorable and we'll get something out of it. I like where we sit. Pretty classic clipper track for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 EURO snowmap through 126 shows I-95 around an inch... 2-3" for S MD... Alleghenies and west doing well as usual... and if you are in the middle - you get a dusting at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I'm not good with proper terminology, so forgive me, but it looks like Friday's event is an overrunning event that drops a dusting, then turns into a coastal low and races up the coast, far enough offshore to only get those on the extreme east coast. What would it take for this to, instead, become an event that dusts us with an inch or two before stalling and bombing out over the OBX and scooting up the coast, dumping feet of snow on us and the entire I-95 corridor up the East coast? Is that in play at all, or am I just dreaming? I feel like I've seen this kind of thing happen before. One of those Millers y'all keep talking about: Miller A, Miller B, or Miller Lite... can't remember which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: I'm not good with proper terminology, so forgive me, but it looks like Friday's event is an overrunning event that drops a dusting, then turns into a coastal low and races up the coast, far enough offshore to only get those on the extreme east coast. What would it take for this to, instead, become an event that dusts us with an inch or two before stalling and bombing out over the OBX and scooting up the coast, dumping feet of snow on us and the entire I-95 corridor up the East coast? Is that in play at all, or am I just dreaming? I feel like I've seen this kind of thing happen before. One of those Millers y'all keep talking about: Miller A, Miller B, or Miller Lite... can't remember which. this is beyond a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: 7 out of 20 suggest 2" or more through 120 hrs -- which is 12z SAT. FWIW, 4 of those 7 have 3" or more That hole that the gfs loves to put at the top of Virginia never verifies. At least in my experience since looking at the wxbell maps, it hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this is beyond a dream I'll go back to sleep, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: I'm not good with proper terminology, so forgive me, but it looks like Friday's event is an overrunning event that drops a dusting, then turns into a coastal low and races up the coast, far enough offshore to only get those on the extreme east coast. What would it take for this to, instead, become an event that dusts us with an inch or two before stalling and bombing out over the OBX and scooting up the coast, dumping feet of snow on us and the entire I-95 corridor up the East coast? Is that in play at all, or am I just dreaming? I feel like I've seen this kind of thing happen before. One of those Millers y'all keep talking about: Miller A, Miller B, or Miller Lite... can't remember which. A miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, yoda said: EURO snowmap through 126 shows I-95 around an inch... 2-3" for S MD... Alleghenies and west doing well as usual... and if you are in the middle - you get a dusting at most Here is the "fixed" map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 My experience for MY area is that clippers are not friendly here...the hills to my West give me the ole snow shadow . I would be thrilled with some cold dusting to cover the landscape again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Here is the "fixed" map.. This illustrates my point perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: My experience for MY area is that clippers are not friendly here...the hills to my West give me the ole snow shadow . I would be thrilled with some cold dusting to cover the landscape again tell that to the school day where we got 4 inches and all the buses were on the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: tell that to the school day where we got 4 inches and all the buses were on the road Enjoy your dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Here is the "fixed" map.. not quite west enough on the northern section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Here is the "fixed" map.. Only glanced at this from my phone and thought WTF again I gotta move....good one....the funny thing is that's probably how it will end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Millville, DE is now a snow town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Millville, DE is now a snow town. Seems like it. I bet they had 6"+ for this past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, mappy said: not quite west enough on the northern section. Couldn't see the county lines through that shade of gray. Mount Mappy is in the pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Seems like it. I bet they had 6"+ for this past event. Wakefield's map has them right at the 4-6/6-8 border http://www.weather.gov/akq/2017Dec09_stormtotal Mount Holly a little less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 You can never have too many snow threats in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 49 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I'm not good with proper terminology, so forgive me, but it looks like Friday's event is an overrunning event that drops a dusting, then turns into a coastal low and races up the coast, far enough offshore to only get those on the extreme east coast. What would it take for this to, instead, become an event that dusts us with an inch or two before stalling and bombing out over the OBX and scooting up the coast, dumping feet of snow on us and the entire I-95 corridor up the East coast? Is that in play at all, or am I just dreaming? I feel like I've seen this kind of thing happen before. One of those Millers y'all keep talking about: Miller A, Miller B, or Miller Lite... can't remember which. I’m sure @StormchaserChuck or @StormchaserChuck! knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think today is his 'OMG, Global Warming, No more snow for you' Day. Could be wrong though. His bipolar phases have bipolar phases so it's hard to keep track. It's not that global warming is bad for snow. I am grateful but it's good to see the bigger picture. The signal is not yet far above the natural variability but soon. It's super early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 EPS looks consistent with the Op Euro for our two events Thursday and Friday. Dusting-1" for both for most of the area, with most towards NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 18z NAM goes for a quick hitting few hours snowfall 03z to 09z THUR morning... looks like the strongest h5 energy goes around RIC and through TT snow maps 1-2" along I-95 into SE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 LWX meant Wed night I am pretty sure for the clipper since its in the Tues Night into Wed Night short term forecast... this is from this afternoon AFD: Then a clipper system starts moving in Thursday night. Still some uncertainty with this system as it croses the area, but with the low expected to track south of at least part if not most of the CWA, the odds of some snow is certainly significant. Accumulations however will likely not be much. Best odds of snow however are northern areas near PA, locations where the low is most likely to stay south of. Lows will be in the 20s Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Seems like it. I bet they had 6"+ for this past event. And that awesome cold windy foot of snow last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 18z 3km NAM also looks decent hrs 59-60 as the run ends... temps in mid 20s and 850s around -8c... around 1" in C VA is farthest out snow map goes, but I would assume that the 1" would reach into DCA and the surrounding areas... though 18z 3km NAM is a bit faster than the 18z 12km NAM run by about 3-6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z 3km NAM also looks decent hrs 59-60 as the run ends... temps in mid 20s and 850s around -8c... around 1" in C VA is farthest out snow map goes, but I would assume that the 1" would reach into DCA and the surrounding areas Looks like whatever snow we could get, it will be powdery. Maybe higher ratios as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This winter is infinitely more entertaining than last winter, and it's barely begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, supernovasky said: This winter is infinitely more entertaining than last winter, and it's barely begun. I most definitely agree with you, Sir! It's nice seeing all those wintery chances on the NOAA forecast page even though they are all minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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