North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 43 minutes ago, das said: Yup. Providence, RI, Burlington, VT, Portland, ME as well. All cities have been paralyzed by an inch of snow before. Correct. I think it was just last year we saw a lot of video from Montreal in a similar one inch scenario where cars were all over the place. It's a stupid complaint from people - it isn't the amount, it is the road and air temp to go with the moisture that makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: That should make Reisterstown Road that much more exciting this afternoon. dont be such a sissy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: dont be such a sissy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: No doubt. Flurries in west Ellicott City. And are we doing obs in here for this event or the December Obs thread? I vote here since it's the last event of the week. Here please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: There's been a good deal of research put into the quantitative factors that contribute to this namely: road temps < 25 degrees, air temp at start < 32 degrees, and heoght of precip rates coincidong with the AM/PM rush hour. Cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Pittsburgh and Nashville also have this problem. 57 minutes ago, das said: Yup. Providence, RI, Burlington, VT, Portland, ME as well. All cities have been paralyzed by an inch of snow before. It only makes sense. I got stuck trying to get from Boston Logan airport to Bedford, MA during an early-season snowfall that happened in early rush hour. It was a real pounding - so not a light snowfall at all - but it took me 7 hours to make that 23-mile trip. And this in a place that sees much more snow than we do on a regular basis. Craziness. Ob: It’s chilly and cloudy. Hoping for a dusting later. I took the day off, so no worries a out traffic for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Very light snow in Owings Mills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 44 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The 6z RGEM looks real nice but I'm treating it as fake news for now. I'm just hoping for a half inch that actually sticks. Leia will get Obi-Wan (RGEM) to help us with the snow today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 All I need is 0.1" of snow, and I'm happy. 0.5" and it's an overperformer, 1" and this Winter has gone off to an amazing start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Very light snow here in Clarksburg . Visible on the grill cover. 25/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Maybe things are delayed, but the radars are NOT lighting up they way they should by now based on the most recent Nams and prior Rgem runs, especially to our west over and east of the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12z RGEM still looks pretty good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Snow grains falling in Round Hill. 25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z RGEM still looks pretty good to me It does, but we still need ground and radar confirmation. by 9AM, per the Rgem, there should have been an area of snow out along Skyline Drive that would expand and move east. That's not happening and it's 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Deathband already setting up. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It does, but we still need ground and radar confirmation. by 9AM, per the Rgem, there should have been an area of snow out along Skyline Drive that would expand and move east. That's not happening and it's 10. By 11AM, the radar is supposed to look like this per the Rgem https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017121512&fh=4&xpos=0&ypos=116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It does, but we still need ground and radar confirmation. by 9AM, per the Rgem, there should have been an area of snow out along Skyline Drive that would expand and move east. That's not happening and it's 10. Yeah, but conversely the 12z RGEM doesn't have the stuff modeled up in N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: By 11AM, the radar is supposed to look like this per the Rgem https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017121512&fh=4&xpos=0&ypos=116 16z is noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Driving up I-83 and it's steady SN- from Parkton up into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 16z is noon17z Yoda. DST . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Flurries slowly picking up in intensity here near Laytonsville. Very small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, MillvilleWx said: 17z Yoda. DST . Ah you are right, my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 THE HRRR seems to have a better handle on the radar echoes north off the city than the high res NAM or RGEM. They give me snow while the HRR and RAP say tough luck. The NAM has a history of liking my house at the expense of Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Ah you are right, my fault ....and so was Boxing day, and January 7, 2017, and...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 @mattie g Howard and Baltimore county schools caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 951 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop along the North Carolina coast today, moving northeastward and out to sea tonight. High pressure will return for Saturday before weak low pressure impacts the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis shows low pressure developing off the North Carolina coast and an upper-level trough swinging through the Ohio Valley toward our area. The upper-level trough will pass through the area today. A strong jetmax aloft that is associated with the upper-level trough will swing through late this morning through this afternoon. Our area will be within the left exit region of the jetmax and that will enhance lift across our area which will also lead to the development of a coastal low off the North Carolina coast. This system is progressive...and that is due to energy digging into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. This means that the system will not phase in time over our area. However...the jetmax is potent and this means that precipitation will develop overhead as it moves through and it will continue to develop and blossom as it is moving off to the north and east. Temperatures are cold enough for the p-type to be snow across our area. The best lift will be across the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas this afternoon into southern and central Maryland as well as northern Virginia. These areas have the best chance for accumulating snow...and again with this system developing overhead and moving northeast...the farther northeast you go the better chance for accumulating snow. Most likely snow accumulations are less than an inch south and west of the Potomac River across northern Virginia to around and inch near Washington DC...to 1-2 inches near Baltimore and northeastern Maryland. Farther west across central Virginia into the Shenandoah Valley...a brief period of light snow is possilbe late this morning through early afternoon but any accumulation will be light. A couple things to point out. First...temperatures were cold overnight and plenty of cloud cover will prevent temps from rising too much today. Even for areas that get above freezing...if it snows temperatures will drop below freezing due to evaporative cooling. Therefore...any snow that does occur will stick on paved surfaces and this will cause any untreated surfaces to become slippery. Slippery untreated surfaces will affect the evening commute for the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas even if snow ends before. Second...there is a tight gradient overhead between no or little snow vs accumulating snow and that is setting up near the Potomac River. Therefore...any slight change in the gradient will have a significant impact on the forecast. This lowers confidence a bit. The snow will exit the area between 1 and 3 pm across central Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley and between 3 and 6 pm for most other areas. Snow could hold on another hour or two near Baltimore and extreme northeastern Maryland. High pressure will build overhead tonight...bringing dry conditions with temps below freezing. Slick spots that develop on untreated surfaces will last throughout the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Driving up I-83 and it's steady SN- from Parkton up into PA. good to know 8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: @mattie g Howard and Baltimore county schools caved. oh. Hmm. wonder if i need to roll out and get my kid early then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: @mattie g Howard and Baltimore county schools caved. Carrol County schools closing 2 hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 RGEM looks terrific, but is it right? HRRR is a lot less bullish, though it certainly isn't gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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