December 11 Week Event(s)

[mappy]

LWX map. not bad. 

[RichmondTarHeel]

I can’t wait to get stuck in traffic for hours on the way home from work tonight because of a few flurries!

[csnavywx]

If you're in that narrow band of 850-700mb frontogenesis, you'll be golden. Outside of that, especially to the south, it'll be freezing drizzle.

[Bob Chill]

Hrrr has just started its trek to fill in the LWX accum map. I really don't like the hrrr much for snow events. It proving to be very misleading until half way into an event then it does well with the shutoff timing. 

High ratio under good lift and cold ground temps should help maximize accums for those lucky enough to be "in the zone". 

[mattie g]

34 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Societal impact to an inch of snow.  Sad (but true) commentary on the area's driving abilities.

It’s nothing to do with driving abilities. It’s to do with frozen precipitation falling on very cold surfaces that gets compressed and re-freezes, with massive amounts of traffic navigating on these frozen roads.

It would happen the same anywhere else.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

It’s nothing to do with driving abilities. It’s to do with frozen precipitation falling on very cold surfaces that gets compressed and re-freezes, with massive amounts of traffic navigating on these frozen roads.

It would happen the same anywhere else.

agreed. as much as i want another inch or so, the thought of getting home from work makes me cringe. 

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX map. not bad. 

Matches up pretty well with Mount Holly..

[mappy]

yeah @C.A.P.E. I think the upper eastern shore into EPA and NJ are gonna do well. 

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hrrr has just started its trek to fill in the LWX accum map. I really don't like the hrrr much for snow events. It proving to be very misleading until half way into an event then it does well with the shutoff timing. 

High ratio under good lift and cold ground temps should help maximize accums for those lucky enough to be "in the zone". 

Yep.  Like the last two events, it is slowly coming around to what the other short range models are showing.  It'll have it pretty close to right sometime this afternoon.

 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

agreed. as much as i want another inch or so, the thought of getting home from work makes me cringe. 

Come on!  Don't be a sissy! 

 

ETA:  A couple of private schools in Baltimore county have announced early dismissals today, but nothing from the public sector yet.

[WhiteoutMD]

First snow flakes in rockville surprising


.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s nothing to do with driving abilities. It’s to do with frozen precipitation falling on very cold surfaces that gets compressed and re-freezes, with massive amounts of traffic navigating on these frozen roads.

It would happen the same anywhere else.

There's been a good deal of research put into the quantitative factors that contribute to this namely:  road temps  < 25 degrees, air temp at start < 32 degrees, and heoght of precip rates coincidong with the AM/PM rush hour.  Cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Pittsburgh and Nashville also have this problem.

[CAPE]

Just now, mappy said:

yeah @C.A.P.E. I think the upper eastern shore into EPA and NJ are gonna do well. 

This is going to be a dynamic quick hitter. Super progressive. I could see the best fronto/banding being ENE of even mby. It will be interesting to watch unfold.

[showmethesnow]

Still seeing the greatest pressure drops to the west of where I would have sort of expected them to be by this point. Though they are migrating eastward so maybe I am just being a weenie here in hoping to get into the action. Also thinking about it, I wonder if we do happen to see a little later start time then the models suggest could that be indicative that we are getting a little better dig from the NS?

[Eskimo Joe]

Few light returns starting to appear over Frederick County back towards Winchester.  Good sign.

[smokeybandit]

Road temps in the area are all 28+ though.

 

http://www.chart.state.md.us/travInfo/weatherStationData.asp

[das]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's been a good deal of research put into the quantitative factors that contribute to this namely:  road temps  < 25 degrees, air temp at start < 32 degrees, and heoght of precip rates coincidong with the AM/PM rush hour.  Cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Pittsburgh and Nashville also have this problem.

Yup. Providence, RI, Burlington, VT, Portland, ME as well. All cities have been paralyzed by an inch of snow before. 

[mitchnick]

New nam drier...big surprise for the nam

[Paleocene]

22 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s nothing to do with driving abilities. It’s to do with frozen precipitation falling on very cold surfaces that gets compressed and re-freezes, with massive amounts of traffic navigating on these frozen roads.

It would happen the same anywhere else.

Yes, exactly. Maybe this bothers me more because I work in urban planning, but the same people who complain (rightfully) about our hideous traffic sometimes also complain "how come people here can't drive in the snow?!?"  Not saying you're one of those people smokeybandit, but if we have a bunch of highways that are at or over capacity under sunny blue skies, it doesn't take much of a logical leap to understand that adding a sheet of snow/ice to those roads causes chaos. If one accident can back up 270 or 95 or 66 in the summer, what happens when there are dozens of cars sliding around and bumping each other? I hope whatever falls over the cities is minimal during rush hour today.

[PDIII]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Few light returns starting to appear over Frederick County back towards Winchester.  Good sign.

LOL.. my initial response to this was that it was not real.. but people are reporting flurries in Rockville and Carrol County.. so I guess it begins.

[smokeybandit]

There's not some huge fire in that area and the snow flakes are actually ash?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The 6z RGEM looks real nice but I'm treating it as fake news for now.  I'm just hoping for a half inch that actually sticks.  

[aldie 22]

Definitely returns showing up on radar just north of here

[mappy]

28 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Come on!  Don't be a sissy! 

ETA:  A couple of private schools in Baltimore county have announced early dismissals today, but nothing from the public sector yet.

Ha, i need to get my kid and take her to my mothers (in AA County) tonight for a kid free weekend. So its more of a matter of getting home and being able to do that, than worrying about the actual drive! 

25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is going to be a dynamic quick hitter. Super progressive. I could see the best fronto/banding being ENE of even mby. It will be interesting to watch unfold.

I agree. Will be in and out quick

[gymengineer]

The placement of the first band of snow matches the RGEM better than the NAM for what it's worth. 

[weatherCCB]

Few flakes here in Clarksburg. 

[NattyBo]

Flurries in Rockville

[ravensrule]

Just started snowing in Pikesville.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Just started snowing in Pikesville.

That should make Reisterstown Road that much more exciting this afternoon.

[ravensrule]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

That should make Reisterstown Road that much more exciting this afternoon.

1/4” and people drive like there’s 2 feet.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, ravensrule said:

1/4” and people drive like there’s 2 feet.

No doubt. 

Flurries in west Ellicott City.  And are we doing obs in here for this event or the December Obs thread?  I vote here since it's the last event of the week.