87storms Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We are awfully jittery when it snows for being a snow town. we're a snowtown, but very fringe. i think the northern burbs are like another climate zone compared to the city. 1/20/16 definitely stuck to the roads and had some decent flake size for a bit (have that one in my archives). i'd be ok with a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, Chase said: But was it modeled properly? It was just overlooked, if I recall. It was modeled correctly for the most part but it snowed heavier than expected. Instead of being an inconsequential dusting to half inch, the snow piled up quick on the roads and traffic turned it to ice. If the same amount of snow fell over 3 hours it wouldn't have been a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z meso's like my yard. I'm until the gfs takes it away. It is an interesting event. Development overhead is tricky. Eastern shore folks might have another shot of shovelable snow. I'll be skeptical until it's happening. West of 95 isn't the place to be on this one. It rarely is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 0z meso's like my yard. I'm until the gfs takes it away. It is an interesting event. Development overhead is tricky. Eastern shore folks might have another shot of shovelable snow. I'll be skeptical until it's happening. West of 95 isn't the place to be on this one. I'm west of 95, I will enjoy my clouds. Everyone east and south of I 95, enjoy the snow event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I definitely did not stay up. Woke up after having a dream that I could slam dunk a basketball (2 handed) Not! I shoot college 3s and that’s it. Anyway, since I’m now up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 36 minutes ago, Scraff said: I definitely did not stay up. Woke up after having a dream that I could slam dunk a basketball (2 handed) Not! I shoot college 3s and that’s it. Anyway, since I’m now up... Consensus on both 6z Nams is 1" as well. Wintry day on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 6z Rgem comes in with 1.5-2", the clear winner! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Not going to break it down but the overnight runs for the most part improved in regards to this afternoon/night coastal. Though the changes were small, considering we are this close in, we did see a general theme of a little deeper dig from the NS, better interaction between the NS and SS, and better lifting of the front side trough allowing for closer coastal development as well as a better ability for intensification. Again this is just generally speaking because not all the models shared all these characteristics. Barring any major changes this looks to mostly impact 95 and east, if not mostly the eastern shore and north. Some top Mets raised concerns about the lack of lift and moisture through the snow growth region which is a valid concern. But if we see the low develop as currently projected I would think worst case is a brief period of light showers initially with a fairly quick switch over as the low develops and provides the lift needed. At this point it looks as if a general 1-2 inches with possible lollys of 3 inches east of the bay would be a good call. I will say though that it wouldn't take much in the way of changes upstairs (500mb) to make this a somewhat moderate event (3-6") for the eastern shore and pull somewhat meaningful snow west of the cities (inch or two). Conversely some slight changes in the wrong direction and everything goes to crap. Quick comment on the 06z NAMs that just came out. Both stepped back on the surface reflection which somewhat surprised me because I thought there was some improvements seen at 500 mb. Would not be surprised if we see them ramp up on the 12Z run if they keep the 500's looking somewhat the same. I will mention that some of the biggest changes seen run to run at 500 mb have been coming from the NAMs so keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 6z Gfs loses it. A dusting is it....so we toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The latest from LWX: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 314 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches are expected. * WHERE...Metro Baltimore and the District of Columbia, including its northern and eastern suburbs. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will increase across the advisory area Friday afternoon, with conditions turning icy on any untreated road surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, arlwx said: The latest from LWX: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 314 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches are expected. * WHERE...Metro Baltimore and the District of Columbia, including its northern and eastern suburbs. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will increase across the advisory area Friday afternoon, with conditions turning icy on any untreated road surfaces. Bullish call. I like. Best I see at this point is maybe an inch into cities. But seeing that they are throwing Howard, Carroll and Fredrick into the mix is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Bullish call. I like. Best I see at this point is maybe an inch into cities. But seeing that they are throwing Howard, Carroll and Fredrick into the mix is nice to see. They obviously prepared it before the Gfs came out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They obviously prepared it before the Gfs came out. Lol Yeah, the 500's back slid a touch on the run. With just small differences between snow and no snow for our region this will probably come down to a now cast situation where we wait to see where the low develops and how quickly it intensifies. I could easily see getting a couple of inches into the cities but conversely I can see us being left out in the cold. Will be fun watching how things develop over the next 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Been harping since last Sunday about how we might want to keep an eye on the early next week period of time. 06Z GFS gets us even closer to something late Tuesday. Still would be the issue of it being the cold chasing the warm. But that is improving as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 36 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Bullish call. I like. Best I see at this point is maybe an inch into cities. But seeing that they are throwing Howard, Carroll and Fredrick into the mix is nice to see. They've done very well so far this year with their snow forecast accuracy this year. I'm hoping that continues today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: They obviously prepared it before the Gfs came out. Lol Dont look at the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dont look at the HRRR. I never do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Saw that ...lol. NWS calling for 1-2" this far west really surprised me....I expect flurries at most but pulling for there call no doubt . Your area I bet sees a nice burst of mod to heavy snow . Deck pics please Be interesting to see how fast this comes together. Lots of radar watching lol. My gut says there is going to be a pretty confined area of "significant" snow(1"+). I think Dover NE into coastal Jersey is the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Be interesting to see how fast this comes together. Lots of radar watching lol. My gut says there is going to be a pretty confined area of "significant" snow(1"+). I think Dover NE into coastal Jersey is the place to be. They are the new N&W. OC has done better then me for 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Guess we watch in the coming hours to see where the greatest pressure drops are occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 If I wasn't already pretty sure I was out of the game for this afternoon/evening I would swear that a storm was incoming. The feel outside is one of a storm inbound and the the tell tale stench of the paper mill 15 miles southeast is periodically wafting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Interesting. We are seeing the greatest pressure drop now occurring over WVa. Not sure I would take much stock in it though because this map can be notoriously misleading. Let's just see if we see a continuation of the deeper pressure falls to the west of what the models would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Boy that would suck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Radars better start lighting up soon because both Nams and the RGEM had returns by now along the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Boy that would suck lol hugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: If I wasn't already pretty sure I was out of the game for this afternoon/evening I would swear that a storm was incoming. The feel outside is one of a storm inbound and the the tell tale stench of the paper mill 15 miles southeast is periodically wafting in. We get that stench here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Bullish call. I like. Best I see at this point is maybe an inch into cities. But seeing that they are throwing Howard, Carroll and Fredrick into the mix is nice to see. They kinda had to because of the potential societal impact. Tough, tough call for the local OpMets today. This is why they get paid the big bucks and regularly get all that honor, glory and public adulation. Pressure falls to the west are interesting. I’ll be looking there for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I think the NWS went too bullish. 2-3 inches for northern Delaware, HRRR says flurries. Its a very tough call. Best bet to just kind of look at the radar and take every flake you can get with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Societal impact to an inch of snow. Sad (but true) commentary on the area's driving abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.